December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

And the SE trend begins....LRC and blocking gonna shine...

[Grizzcoat]

2nd storm around the 28th-29th looks much weaker and S. Would make sense if the first cuts further E and S. ***Edit*** what storm??

[CentralNebWeather]

CMC farther north with the low, basically rains on Central and Eastern Nebraska and all of Iowa.  Low goes over my house.  No thanks.

[St Paul Storm]

Well, I don’t know. Glad to see the models showing a storm. But being in the 21” jackzone 7 days out is never a good thing.

[james1976]

Well, I don’t know. Glad to see the models showing a storm. But being in the 21” jackzone 7 days out is never a good thing.

For one storm? Danggggg

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS FV3 just exploding snow over Northern Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa through 180 hours.  This thing will have moisture to work with, that's for sure.  

[Stormhunter87]

Wow fv3 run going bonkers but these models are kinda all over the place.

[hlcater]

Wow fv3 run going bonkers but these models are kinda all over the place.

It’s a week out.

[Stormhunter87]

It’s a week out.

Very true just was talking about the 6z Vs the 12z

[jaster220]

NWS offices in Hastings and North Platte have started to mention the potential for a storm next Wed./Thurs. in their Discos.  Both said this could turn into a major storm with the Gulf wide open.  Still a week away and as we have seen with models over the last few days their will be many changes to come imo.

 

The great thing about such a wide sub-forum is early disco on anticipated storms coming inland from the west coast. The bad side of such a wide sub is when a storm focus is more the GL's. 75-80% of posters lose interest and "go mole", leaving just a few of us to post. It's really nice when all or at least most of the sub is in the game and there's a lot more tracking-n-posting. Just an obs. Hopefully we get one like that sooner than later.  

[Snowshoe]

Something tells me by next Tuesday i'll be rooting for the NW trend again after days of moving SE

 

And the SE trend begins....LRC and blocking gonna shine...

[CentralNebWeather]

Something tells me by next Tuesday i'll be rooting for the NW trend again after days of moving SE

I just thought the same thing.

[jaster220]

And the SE trend begins....LRC and blocking gonna shine...

 

As you called for amigo. Can it shine strong enough to get us in the game? That's the question imho..

[james1976]

The last cutter tracked over my house. Today's 12z runs are doin the same with this. Luckily its a week out.

[GDR]

Eastern Nebraska will be digging out for days according to the FV3

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Looks like the gfs is starting to come southeast, which is a great thing! Icon and FV3 GFS were also really great model runs. Saddle up everyone! Gonna be a fun week of tracking this!

[james1976]

Looks like the little Christmas eve/day system has vanished.

[Tony]

Looks like the gfs is starting to come southeast, which is a great thing! Icon and FV3 GFS were also really great model runs. Saddle up everyone! Gonna be a fun week of tracking this!

If the Euro follows suit then there is hope for many otherwise just a crazy run by the models but either way at least something to track

[Tom]

Looks like the little Christmas eve/day system has vanished.

Not so fast says the 12z Euro...I’m on the phone so no maps to post...

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow, the 12 euro swoops south of Lincoln and Omaha on Christmas day of course lol, but blows up snow for western Nebraska and southeast Nebraska for that day. Might be something to watch.

[Hawkeye]

The euro 24-hr low position maps on Tidbits perked me up, but the precip maps show the snow band passing well south, in Missouri.

[Stormhunter87]

Could some post the euro map? Traveling that day and would like to see what it looks like.

[Hawkeye]

Ryan Maue tweeted an animation of the euro.

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1075464030754615296

[Stormhunter87]

Ryan Maue tweeted an animation of the euro.

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1075464030754615296

Thank you. And well that run definitely puts a damper on traveling. Short drive from North Central Missouri to St. Louis but I would rather not deal with I-70. Anywho might get a white Christmas which would be cool

[james1976]

Haha I like how it stays just south of highway 20.

[St Paul Storm]

C NE up to the Dakotas and C MN with a solid hit on the Euro post Christmas storm. 2” equivalent (snow) in C NE.

 

Edit: some of that in NE is the Christmas system.

[Tony]

Ryan Maue tweeted an animation of the euro.

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1075464030754615296

This would be a nice surprise if it continues to show on future runs. Euro has had it off and on but a bit healthier on this run.

[CentralNebWeather]

Euro has Nebraska hit with a Christmas Eve snow at least 6" for much of the state.  What?  Did I miss something?  I have been looking at post Christmas.

[CentralNebWeather]

If I am reading the Euro correctly from weather.us, it has 1-2' of snow over Central Nebraska from Dec. 24-28th.  Would be a great Christmas present if this were to materialize.  

 

The good news is that all of the models are now seeing a storm.  Will be fun, and agonizing, to see the model flips daily.  

[badgerwx]

And SW Wisconsin loses again...lame. happy for the rest of you!

[james1976]

I have a feeling this is gonna be another one that tracks over IA keeping the snow to the NW.

#IowaLowMagnet

[Niko]

Beautiful day today w sunny skies and very pleasant temps. Currently in the upper 40s.

 

Lets all enjoy this break we are having b4 Winter really arrives soon.

[Money]

I have a feeling this is gonna be another one that tracks over IA keeping the snow to the NW.

#IowaLowMagnet

Agreed

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

 

The 12Z ECMWF brought the change (the 00Z run was dry),
showing the potential for a potent shortwave disturbance to move
through the Central Plains. Those who are hoping for any chance at
any white this Christmas will be hoping that this trend continues
and catches on with other models...but until that happens it`s
hard to have more than 20 PoPs in the forecast. The current
forecast highs are warm, but if that 12Z ECMWF change hangs on,
those highs would have to be lowered.

Tuesday/Christmas Day is still looking to be dry, from both the
GFS/ECMWF...which are showing southwesterly flow building in as a
stronger storm system digs south over the western CONUS/Rockies.
Winds look to be on the lighter side of things, with highs
currently in the lower to mid 40s. It`s late Christmas night
(after midnight) and on into Wednesday that things look more
interesting. The GFS/ECMWF are both showing a strong upper level
low pressure system developing over the Rockies and swinging out
across the region. This is a week out, so hard to have much
confidence in any particular track, but model agreement at this
point isn`t too bad, showing the potential for some notable QPF
somewhere across the Plains. For us, how much, is it all rain, all
snow or a combo...all things that`ll have to be worked out over
the next week. Definitely something that bears watching.

[Stormhunter87]

Wow GFS is cranking out the moisture but staying warm. Although that rain snow line is crazy close.

[snowstorm83]

Even though I'm out of town for that time, that typical annoying track and cutoff on the GFS still makes me mad.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow,D**n lol. The gfs has a super razor sharp cut off line.

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS has no Christmas Eve snow that the Euro shows for this area.

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS cranking out the snow. Mercy. There is that sharp cut off however. I would bet we get movement back and forth in the coming days.

[jcwxguy]

18z GFS cranking out the snow. Mercy. There is that sharp cut off however. I would bet we get movement back and forth in the coming days.

kinda looks like that last storm with the sharp cutoff showing up