CentralNebWeather Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 NWS Hastings will add counties to WSW after collaborating with neighboring weather offices. I would think in the next 1-2 hours we will know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 If its 10:1 ratios that would put me in 4-6" range which is better than last run. Regardless.....riding the edge is always nerve racking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Wow, Hastings going with warnings already. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 18z NAM about to go sub 990mb west of KC. By hr 57 things are looking good for many of you NE peeps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Big difference in the 18z nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Hr 45 on Nam snowfall map does not line up with the qpf map (my guess is sleet and not snow) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Yeah they have an early change over plus big snow bands here now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Talk about occluding....the thing sits in SW IA for almost 12 hours without moving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Nam looking like the CMC wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just unloading snow for Nebraska!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just unloading snow for Nebraska!!!!Yeah buddy! Loving this run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just unloading snow for Nebraska!!!! HOLY F***. This is an insane run! There's gunna be 2' totals in Nebraska with this run. Wow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018112918/081/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018112918/084/snku_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Hastings put me in a Winter Weather Advisory for 2-4". Have they missed the Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elrayox Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Omaha NWS going with an inch or less, 1-3 north of Omaha..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Hastings put me in a Winter Weather Advisory for 2-4". Have they missed the Euro?It's crazy if they discount that model considering that most all other models are starting to come in line with it! Plus it's track history has been impressive for quiet sometime. I'm thinking we aren't done with the surprises yet. I'm loving the trends on today's models; slower, colder, stronger! I think we all do well with this storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 It's crazy if they discount that model considering that most all other models are starting to come in line with it! Plus it's track history has been impressive for quiet sometime. I'm thinking we aren't done with the surprises yet. I'm loving the trends on today's models; slower, colder, stronger! I think we all do well with this storm. Even if you took half of the Euro, I was over 8" on that last run. NWS Hastings is usually Euro first and other models 2nd. Even in the warning area, I would have expected more forecasted amounts. You are correct, more changes should be coming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 NWS already issued winter storm warnings, even though snow isn't going to start for another 36 hours. LOL. What's the rush? Could have easily waited until tomorrow morning when there is less model spread. Whatever, they frequently do things that make no sense. Like leave Linn County in a winter storm warning Sunday the entire day despite the fact not a single flake fell in the entire county for the entire duration of the storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Omaha NWS going with an inch or less, 1-3 north of Omaha.....I always like to call OAX incompetent but a lot of the times when they underforecast they somehow end up being right. We will see. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 In other news.... Whoopdie doo another 18" storm for Norfolk, they NEVER get those /s 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 GFS flowing nam. Change over early and sub 990 for the low Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 On Friday, the leading edge of mid-level height falls and low-level warm advection will spread from the central High Plainstoward the mid MO Valley ahead of a potent short-wave troughmoving into the Great Plains. Accordingly, precipitation willincrease from southwest-to-northeast across the area during theafternoon with air temperatures in the mid to upper 30s generallysupporting a cold rain. Some of the initial precipitation could befreezing rain, though amounts should be light. Friday night, strong forcing for ascent overspreads our area. Theassociated low-level warm-advection regime atop surfacetemperatures falling to around freezing could yield bursts offreezing rain and/or sleet over northeast NE with rain farthersouth. On Saturday, deep-layer column cooling within the northwestquadrant of a maturing cyclone will foster a change over to snow,heavy at times, across northeast NE. The onset of heavy snow willcoincide with strengthening north winds with considerable blowingand drifting snow expected. As such, we have upgraded many of thecounties in the existing winter storm watch to a winter stormwarning. Farther south, the rain-snow line will steadily sag towardI-80 with some light accumulation possible by Saturday afternoon. Saturday night into Sunday, the synoptic system will elongate fromthe Great Lakes into the central Plains with the western extensionof the primary deformation axis pivoting southeast through ourarea. That will result in a prolonged period of light tooccasionally moderate snow across eastern NE and western IA,especially north of I-80. For now, we will indicate storm-totalsnow of 10-12 inches over portions of northeast NE decreasing toaround 2 inches or so in the Omaha and Lincoln areas. Despitethe expectation of lower snow amounts across the southern half ofour area, it's important to consider that frozen ground may notallow for much of the initial rainfall to saturate. As such, anystanding water will form ice as temperatures fall below freezing.Therefore, additional warnings and/or advisories will likely berequired at some point in the next 24 hours or so. OAX. I agree with them on most of this, except for the part where they say heaviest snow will be North of the 80 Saturday night into Sunday. Ptype will be snow for the whole area by then, and it's up in the air as to who will be getting the heaviest rates. I think that's an ignorant statement. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Regem but still snowing... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 OAX. I agree with them on most of this, except for the part where they say heaviest snow will be North of the 80 Saturday night into Sunday. Ptype will be snow for the whole area by then, and it's up in the air as to who will be getting the heaviest rates. I think that's an ignorant statement.I got a feeling they will be changing their tune if these runs keep going the way they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 I’ve never tracked a 2-3” snowfall for as long as I have with this storm. This hobby is maddening. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Regem but still snowing... Sure seems to be slowing down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Been looking through a few of the short range models. They are painting a much different picture. If the 00z runs keep showing this they are going to change their forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 18z FV3 GFS destroys much of Central and Eastern Nebraska 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 I know I asked before, but which site (paying) has the 18z euro? I haven't been able to find it yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 I know I asked before, but which site (paying) has the 18z euro? I haven't been able to find it yetweathermodels.com Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 18z FV3 GFS destroys much of Central and Eastern Nebraska Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 18z FV3 GFS destroys much of Central and Eastern NebraskaHeaviest about the same area but it has moved east a little. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 weathermodels.com thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 18 z nam blows up Nebraska!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 I’ve never tracked a 2-3” snowfall for as long as I have with this storm. This hobby is maddening.Oh lord back in my super weenie days I had a few I tracked 200 hours every model run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 I'm still a weenie. This cutoff is maddening. GET DOWN HERE D****T. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 I'm still a weenie. This cutoff is maddening. GET DOWN HERE D****T.That sums up my feelings lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 Nam showing slightly stronger and slightly more south hour 35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 Definitely showing an earlier change over for Eastern Nebraska Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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