PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38 minutes ago, Doinko said:

1997/1998, 2009/2010 and 1994/1995 all had something here at least. 2009/2010 would also make up for the lack of a good winter over there this year.

97-98 mostly sucked. Good event for PDX. 
 

I would be okay with a 94-95 or 09-10 redux. Snowed here in early May 2010 according to the neighbors. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Apparently Boise had snow 13 days in a row breaking a record for consecutive days with snow set in 1933. 

[MossMan]

45/36 on the day. Currently 37. 
.48” so far on the day, 1.69” for the month, 11.65” for the year. 

[Phishy Wx]

Check out Mammoth Mtn, CA

 

Dang

 

 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Check out Mammoth Mtn, CA

 

Dang

 

 

I have been following this YouTube channel, it’s insane how much snow they have had! 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

29 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have been following this YouTube channel, it’s insane how much snow they have had! 

 

My initials

[NWbyNW]

 

[TT-SEA]

Heard bouts of wind and rain overnight... but the sticking snow level is way up there this morning.   @SilverFallsAndrew do have snow on the trees again this morning?  

This is also the last morning with daylight by 6 a.m. for awhile.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF has been trending more progressive in the short term... this brings the rain into the Seattle area by mid-afternoon tomorrow rather than later in the evening.    But the Monday/Tuesday system also moves through quicker and does not turn into an anafront situation on Tuesday.   

The 12Z ECMWF yesterday had the back edge of the precip across western WA on Tuesday afternoon with temps in the 30s and very low snow levels... but the most recent run has the back edge way east and now it shows partly sunny and around 50 in the Seattle area that day.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Heard bouts of wind and rain overnight... but the sticking snow level is way up there this morning.   @SilverFallsAndrew do have snow on the trees again this morning?  

This is also the last morning with daylight by 6 a.m. for awhile.

No, it is 33 and cloudy. It was drizzling and 35 around 10p last night when I went outside to feed the animals. About mid afternoon yesterday the airmass became too warm to support snow here. 06z gfs says it will be back around the 20th.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No, it is 33 and cloudy. It was drizzling and 35 around 10p last night when I went outside to feed the animals. About mid afternoon yesterday the airmass became too warm to support snow here. 06z gfs says it will be back around the 20th.

What is your current snow depth?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

What is your current snow depth?

Oh around 14”. We lost everything that fell yesterday morning since about noon yesterday. Since the airmasses have been damp we usually lose 2-4” during the day, so it will melt somewhat quickly now that we aren’t adding to it. Up to 38 now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

What is your current snow depth?

Oh around 14”. We lost everything that fell yesterday morning since about noon yesterday. Since the airmasses have been damp we usually lose 2-4” during the day, so it will melt somewhat quickly now that we aren’t adding to it. Up to 38 now. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Beautiful coating on the Olympics this morning. About 2500’ snow line

[TT-SEA]

Since the MJO is off the charts right now in phase 8... I did some research into comparable events.   It sounds like a similiar situation occurred in March 1981 and in March 2015.    The 1981 event was expected to trigger a Nino but failed.   However, the extreme MJO amplitude in March 2015 did trigger the strong Nino in 2015-16.     Results are inconclusive.   Maybe something in between this year?    Interestingly... Nino failed in 1981 but then we had the super Nino form in 1982 so if it fails this year we might end up just delaying it to next year.  

 

[MossMan]

Snow piles update! 
Currently 41 degrees. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Since the MJO is off the charts right now in phase 8... I did some research into comparable events.   It sounds like a similiar situation occurred in March 1981 and in March 2015.    The 1981 event was expected to trigger a Nino but failed.   However, the extreme MJO amplitude in March 2015 did trigger the strong Nino in 2015-16.     Results are inconclusive.   Maybe something in between this year?    Interestingly... Nino failed in 1981 but then we had the super Nino form in 1982 so if it fails this year we might end up just delaying it to next year.  

 

Are you predicting a spring summer 2015 redux?

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Are you predicting a spring summer 2015 redux?

Not predicting anything... just interested in comparable extreme MJO phase 8 events in March.    Results were inconclusive.   Too small of a sample size.   

I did look back at March 2019 as well and it far less extreme in terms of amplitude.  

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Phishy Wx]

charging the batteries, bout to fire up the blower for probably the last time until November

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

I love those old photos... can you imagine if they had something like that now?!  

[Phishy Wx]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I love those old photos... can you imagine if they had something like that now?!  

here's another

 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF brings back the anafront scenario for Tuesday. 

@SilverFallsAndrewcould be significant for you. 

[Phishy Wx]

 

[TT-SEA]

Just over the next week per the 12Z ECMWF... crazy.   This is the complete opposite of 2012 in the upper Midwest.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF brings back the anafront scenario for Tuesday. 

@SilverFallsAndrewcould be significant for you. 

That would be wild. I think most of our current snow would be melted by then so bring it on I guess. Lol

[TT-SEA]

Some sun making an appearance now... 

[Cascadia_Wx]

I don’t understand how anyone could be so terrified of seeing anything but an absolutely blowtorch warm season after the last 11 years.

[TT-SEA]

I am sure I am jinxing it... but both weekend days look lovely next week for western WA.    Sort of crashes in Oregon on Sunday though with a system moving into CA that day.

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t understand how anyone could be so terrified of seeing anything but an absolutely blowtorch warm season after the last 11 years.

Terrified.   

Always the same from Jesse.  Sounds like you might be projecting your anxiousness.   Again. 

I don't have any expectations for summer... just interested tracking how things are evolving.   Personally I would like to avoid anything resembling 2022.   But my opinions mean nothing to nature.   I am just looking for clues on what happens next.  

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That would be wild. I think most of our current snow would be melted by then so bring it on I guess. Lol

It would be impressive if you can melt that much snow that fast without a warm, windy, wet system.    Monday does not look warm or windy when its raining.    And then the ECMWF shows its snowing again on Tuesday.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Mostly sunny out there and already up to 47 after a low of 38. Should easily be our warmest day since February 19 here, when we hit 51. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am sure I am jinxing it... but both weekend days look lovely next week for western WA.    Sort of crashes in Oregon on Sunday though with a system moving into CA that day.

 

Wow, only mid 40s in the WV though. Dang. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It would be impressive if you can melt that much snow that fast without a warm, windy, wet system.    Monday does not look warm or windy when its raining.    And then the ECMWF shows its snowing again on Tuesday.

Well it will at least melt away from the house and under the trees lol. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Really solid looking Euro run overall.

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF and EPS and control run show the cold making a return to the deep south next week.     Western WA might be warmer than most places in the country by next weekend.  

[snow_wizard]

I often mention what an insanely cold microclimate the Waterville / Douglas area is.  Today is a fantastic example.  It's currently 42 at Blewett Pass (1500 feet higher), 45 in Cle Elum (only 500 feet lower), 44 in Leavenworth, and 29 in Douglas.  There is another sensor about 500 feet lower than Waterville where it's 33 so it's not a sensor issue.  I have never been able to figure out exactly why that area is so cold.  My best theory is it's a fairly high plateau that is sloped from higher to the West and lower to the East.  In cases with offshore flow already pretty chilly air on the east side of the plateau is lifted and further cooled.  That area also has perpetual snow cover in a normal winter so I'm sure that plays into it also.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I often mention what an insanely cold microclimate the Waterville / Douglas area is.  Today is a fantastic example.  It's currently 42 at Blewett Pass (1500 feet higher), 45 in Cle Elum (only 500 feet lower), 44 in Leavenworth, and 29 in Douglas.  There is another sensor about 500 feet lower than Waterville where it's 33 so it's not a sensor issue.  I have never been able to figure out exactly why that area is so cold.  My best theory is it's a fairly high plateau that is sloped from higher to the West and lower to the East.  In cases with offshore flow already pretty chilly air on the east side of the plateau is lifted and further cooled.  That area also has perpetual snow cover in a normal winter so I'm sure that plays into it also.

They also have a ski area and Douglas fir forests up on Badger Mountain, the high point of the plateau. Impressive for the Columbia Basin.

Edited March 11, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Since the MJO is off the charts right now in phase 8... I did some research into comparable events.   It sounds like a similiar situation occurred in March 1981 and in March 2015.    The 1981 event was expected to trigger a Nino but failed.   However, the extreme MJO amplitude in March 2015 did trigger the strong Nino in 2015-16.     Results are inconclusive.   Maybe something in between this year?    Interestingly... Nino failed in 1981 but then we had the super Nino form in 1982 so if it fails this year we might end up just delaying it to next year.  

 

I don’t think either of those are useful analogs. This year’s +ENSO is evolving from the EPAC under -NPMM, while both of the aforementioned were clean +NPMM and evolved/attempted to evolve from the west-central Pacific. So there’s little if any gain in predictability.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... focus remains to the south of WA the entire run.    Running the 7-day anomaly loop illustrates this quite well.   Overall this is a pleasant pattern up here in the spring.