PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

I don’t think either of those are useful analogs. This year’s +ENSO is evolving from the EPAC under -NPMM, while both of the aforementioned were clean +NPMM and evolved/attempted to evolve from the west-central Pacific. So there’s little if any gain in predictability.

There wasn't much to gain about predictability even with those two years.   

 

[Doinko]

 

[Doinko]

On 3/10/2023 at 7:21 AM, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like Burns, OR picked up 6-8" of snow overnight. Then they actually turned to rain for about an hour this morning and bumped to 37. Now down to 34 with west winds gusting to 40mph. 

Second coldest Nov-Feb on record there going back to 1939, behind 1992-1993. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

There wasn't much to gain about predictability even with those two years.   

 

Kind of expected since they were both opposite QBO and NPMM relative to 2023. Useless for ENSO projections.

 

[Phil]

Actually 2015 was almost the inverse of 2023 in how it evolved. Particularly in the western hemisphere (which is where the MJO is now, incidentally enough).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Actually 2015 was almost the inverse of 2023 in how it evolved. Particularly in the western hemisphere (which is where the MJO is now, incidentally enough).

Given 2015 was about the worst weather year possible here, I’m okay hearing this. 

[FroYoBro]

How much money would you guys put in for a Tim/Jesse sex tape? We may be able to give them an opportunity that’s too good to pass up if we all pitch in! 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Kind of expected since they were both opposite QBO and NPMM relative to 2023. Useless for ENSO projections.

 

Makes sense why they were so different.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Given 2015 was about the worst weather year possible here, I’m okay hearing this. 

If there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that it can always get worse.

Your region will probably see a cluster of very warm winters when the next westward extension of the equatorial IPWP occurs (may or may not be this year, but that part of the cycle is approaching quickly).

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Actually 2015 was almost the inverse of 2023 in how it evolved. Particularly in the western hemisphere (which is where the MJO is now, incidentally enough).

I never thought of 2015 as analog... just wanted to know when the MJO was this extreme in phase 8 in March.

I don't really think much of analogs after the last 3 summers anyways.   It will likely find a way to be warm.   Hopefully not as ridiculously dry though.    I am fairly certain there will be more rain this summer.     

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS looking pretty good through week two.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

If there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that it can always get worse.

Your region will probably see a cluster of very warm winters when the next westward extension of the equatorial IPWP occurs (may or may not be this year, but that part of the cycle is approaching quickly).

Will this be before or after we have to survive the next little Ice Age?

#early2020s!

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I never thought of 2015 as analog... just wanted to know when the MJO was this extreme in phase 8 in March.

I don't really think much of analogs after the last 3 summers anyways.   It will likely find a way to be warm.   Hopefully not as ridiculously dry though.    I am fairly certain there will be more rain this summer.     

Well I was talking about ENSO evolution not the summer pattern.

I don’t have much insight into this summer other than the 4CH should be much less beastly, and the entire western half of the CONUS probably won’t be on fire for once.

But a weak 4CH can still translate to a very warm PNW summer. The pattern producing it would be quite different, though.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Will this be before or after we have to survive the next little Ice Age?

#early2020s!

Phil also called for an extended Nina cycle in the early 2020s.    I think that part happened.

[Phil]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Will this be before or after we have to survive the next little Ice Age?

#early2020s!

Hey I nailed the early 2020s La Niña like half a decade in advance. Don’t I get some credit for that?  

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hey I nailed the early 2020s La Niña like half a decade in advance. Don’t I get some credit for that?  

Sure. I guess it’s to be expected that the prediction had the typical Phil phlare. Especially five years ago.

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

Best story of the season. This is exactly what they needed. A true drought buster of a season with more on the way. Couldn't be better.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

If there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that it can always get worse.

Your region will probably see a cluster of very warm winters when the next westward extension of the equatorial IPWP occurs (may or may not be this year, but that part of the cycle is approaching quickly).

I’m sure we will have to pay for this one relatively chilly winter. 

[Phishy Wx]

42 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

How much money would you guys put in for a Tim/Jesse sex tape? We may be able to give them an opportunity that’s too good to pass up if we all pitch in! 

Anal log?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Anal log?

I’m just saying I’d do about anything for a January 1950 redux… 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I never thought of 2015 as analog... just wanted to know when the MJO was this extreme in phase 8 in March.

I don't really think much of analogs after the last 3 summers anyways.   It will likely find a way to be warm.   Hopefully not as ridiculously dry though.    I am fairly certain there will be more rain this summer.     

Impossible to have less rain IMBY. I went 4 months to the day without rain

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just hope there are not any children on the forum today. 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

And 1982-83 was a super Nino.  Weird.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

And 1982-83 was a super Nino.  Weird.

Would be great to see the repeat of that warm season. I’d happily take the 100 down here in late May if it meant we followed that June-December.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

They also have a ski area and Douglas fir forests up on Badger Mountain, the high point of the plateau. Impressive for the Columbia Basin.

It's like everything just comes together perfectly for cold and snow there.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would be great to see the repeat of that warm season. I’d happily take the 100 down here in late May if it meant we followed that June-December.

No doubt.  We even had a notable cold snap in late September that year that brought the earliest hard frost I've seen here.

I actually remember the May heatwave.  I happened to drive through North Bend that day and it literally felt like a furnace outside.  The heat was still impressive west of there, but nothing like the foothills.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Impossible to have less rain IMBY. I went 4 months to the day without rain

I have a sword fern in my front yard that might have gotten killed by the dry weather last year.  I forgot to water that, because I had never needed to before.  I'm hoping it will show fresh growth once the weather warms.

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Impossible to have less rain IMBY. I went 4 months to the day without rain

Same here... virtually no rain from mid June into late October.   

And during the 3rd year of a Nina that rapidly strengthened in the spring.  

[Meatyorologist]

Hoping for a massive summer thunderstorm season this year. That is something I am growing a little depressed about not having seen much of in these last couple years.

[Cold Snap]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Hoping for a massive summer thunderstorm season this year. That is something I am growing a little depressed about not having seen much of in these last couple years.

Hoping for something Sep 2013 like. I remember that one just went on for hours. A May 2017 repeat would be really nice as well. I feel like that one has to be the most widespread severe weather outbreak west of the cascades this century so far.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

Hoping for something Sep 2013 like. I remember that one just went on for hours. A May 2017 repeat would be really nice as well. I feel like that one has to be the most widespread severe weather outbreak west of the cascades this century so far.

9/5/2013. Same day Altocumulus Castellanus became my favorite cloud.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Mostly sunny and 51 here. Going on a walk to soak up some mild sunshine  

[Omegaraptor]

Current SW Portland I-5 Cascade view! 

[Doinko]

19 hours ago, Doinko said:

Bismarck, ND has had a pretty snowy winter so far. 86.9" so far with 3-7" forecasted for tonight. Looks like they'll probably make it to the top 3

 

[awright-31]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Hoping for something Sep 2013 like. I remember that one just went on for hours. A May 2017 repeat would be really nice as well. I feel like that one has to be the most widespread severe weather outbreak west of the cascades this century so far.

The mircoburst here in Thurston County on May 4, 2017 was absolutely nuts. One of the most insane weather events I've experienced here. 

 

[Meatyorologist]

16 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

The mircoburst here in Thurston County on May 4, 2017 was absolutely nuts. One of the most insane weather events I've experienced here. 

 

Those reactions are priceless 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Same here... virtually no rain from mid June into late October.   

And during the 3rd year of a Nina that rapidly strengthened in the spring.  

Funny thing is, in hindsight, it was the La Niña/-SPMM that ultimately forced the heat/drought. -ENSO has always correlated to a bloated 4CH/heat over much of the CONUS, but that combined with the PMM dipole/axisymmetric forcing to constructively amplify that effect over western North America, east Asia, and western Europe. 

Unfortunately, such anomalous constructive interference on interseasonal timescales is extremely difficult if not impossible to project ahead of time. Fickle, but once it gets going it’s hard to break.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Funny thing is, in hindsight, it was the La Niña/-SPMM that ultimately forced the heat/drought. -ENSO has always correlated to a bloated 4CH/heat over much of the CONUS, but that combined with the PMM dipole/axisymmetric forcing to constructively amplify that effect over western North America, east Asia, and western Europe. 

Unfortunately, such anomalous constructive interference on interseasonal timescales is extremely difficult if not impossible to project ahead of time. Fickle, but once it gets going it’s hard to break.

Hottest summer ever here during the 3rd year of a Nina... which managed to beat out the previous hottest summer ever during the 2nd year of that Nina... which beat out the hottest summer ever during the first year of that Nina.

[snow_wizard]

It turns out the Feb 20 through March 10 period for SEA was the 6th coldest on record for SEA and the coldest for that period since 1962.  Their highest max temp for the period was 51 which ranks 4th lowest in 79 years of record.  Those are some very impressive stats.  If there had been any notable snow the numbers would have probably come in lower.

Their average temp was 38.4 for the period and the 79 year median is 43.6.