PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Model comparison - GFS, GEFS.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Model comparison - GFS, GEFS.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS handles the late week / weekend trough much differently than the ECMWF.  The GFS swings it way out over the ocean which obviously ruins the cold potential.  

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’d be surprised if I don’t see snow. 

 

All good things must come to

an end. 

It will, but it doesn't have to be this year.  We are just now hitting our stride with this persistent -PNA pattern.

[snow_wizard]

29 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8 Model comparison - GFS, GEFS.

GEFS is closer to the ECMWF.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, The Blob said:

Bruh I've been very busy lately and have no time to filter through 70 pages.

I was talking about time of year when I said late.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’d be surprised if I don’t see snow. 

 

All good things must come to

an end. 

You most likely will see snow.  I would sure like to see some too.

[Phil]

NWS forecast looks wintry at Tim’s house.  

[snow_wizard]

The GFS meteorgrams show every day solidly below normal from the 23rd through 31st for SEA.  Pretty big deal for that relatively warm biased product.

[Phil]

Cool/dry to warm/wet. Story of this so-called “winter”.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

NWS forecast looks wintry at Tim’s house.  

This could be a fairly big deal for us if the details work out right.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Cool/dry to warm/wet. Story of this so-called “winter”.

73/60 with rain is pretty cringe worthy alright.

[snow_wizard]

Douglas / Waterville pulled off a high of 41 today while Leavenworth was in the mid 50s and Moses Lake in the low 60s.  That place is amazing.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

73/60 with rain is pretty cringe worthy alright.

On the upside, if there were ever a “good” time to torch it would be spring. Low humidity and usually a decent breeze to keep things mixed. In fact it’s been so dry NWS has been issuing red flag warnings.

In summer this pattern would produce lows in the 80s.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like one location in OR had winds over 2200 mph today.  Might be some damage there! 

[Phil]

GEFS keeps trending colder out there in the mid/long range. Big difference compared to 00z last night.

[Phil]

Total cave to the EPS. Again.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z Euro. Chilly. I see a lot of potential that April may start very chilly.

[Gradient Keeper]

A decent low is spinning up off the central Oregon Coast and appears to be deepening/strengthening a bit. This is likely going to result in a surge of southerly winds from roughly 5 AM to perhaps 3 PM today. The 00z WRF-GFS 1.33km hi-res shows this well with 25-35mph gusts highest favored south of PDX. Neat.

[GHweatherChris]

13 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

A decent low is spinning up off the central Oregon Coast and appears to be deepening/strengthening a bit. This is likely going to result in a surge of southerly winds from roughly 5 AM to perhaps 3 PM today. The 00z WRF-GFS 1.33km hi-res shows this well with 25-35mph gusts highest favored south of PDX. Neat.

Meh

[TigerWoodsLibido]

47F with a very nice night. Cool and showery.

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

NWS forecast looks wintry at Tim’s house.  

That is so wrong.  That looks like a forecast for Stampede pass!    For starters... Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and at least party sunny.    Snow and 47 tomorrow?    It probably won't snow at all here over the next week and that shows snow on 5 of the next 7 days. 

Here is the just the next 2 days... these are very nice spring days.  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

5 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Meh

Salem G 22, Aurora, G 23, but yeah meh I'm having doubts the models are correct about the breezy/gusty south winds.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is so wrong.    For starters... Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and at least party sunny.    Snow and 47 tomorrow?    It probably won't snow at all here over the next week and that shows snow on 5 of the next 7 days. 

Here is the just the next 2 days... these are very nice spring days.  

 

We're turning the corner, just not completely. It's coming! Tue-Wed will be really nice.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS was VERY snowy, and it shows me what I want, so it's more than likely going to be right.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

We're turning the corner, just not completely. It's coming! Tue-Wed will be really nice.

Apparently not... going to be snowing here tomorrow and pouring rain on Wednesday per Phil.    Then we settle in for 4 straight of snow.     More wintry than December.   

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

6z GEFS was VERY snowy, and it shows me what I want, so it's more than likely going to be right.

Like Jim said... it would be sweet to have a dollar for every inch of phantom snow the GEFS has shown this winter.   I could quit my job!  

06Z GFS looks less wintry...

[Gradient Keeper]

We're one day closer to Summer!

[TT-SEA]

Just started raining lightly here in the last hour.   About 12 hours later than the models were showing.   SEA NWS said there was an 85% chance of rain in NB by 3 p.m. yesterday.    Our first .01 from this system arrived only 14 hours later.  

[Gradient Keeper]

COUNTDOWNS

3/20/23 6:21 AM
For those who are keeping score at home, or in the office!
Spring 🌦🌬⛈ 8 hours 11 minutes
Summer 🌤🌩 93 days
Fall 🌧🌨🌬️ 186 days
Winter 🌧⛷ 276 days
Christmas 🌨 279 days

[Gradient Keeper]

RADAR UPDATE

3/20/23 6:28 AM

Clark County Convergence Zone activated! Precip has really blossomed over the past 20-30 minutes.

[LowerGarfield]

Happy Astronomical Spring. Do you believe the GFS that it will be snowy over Snoqaulmie Pass the first weekend in April? Debating going to the Mariners game that weekend for Spring Break.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

Happy Astronomical Spring. Do you believe the GFS that it will be snowy over Snoqaulmie Pass the first weekend in April? Debating going to the Mariners game that weekend for Spring Break.

I’ll believe it’s possible. 

[TT-SEA]

26 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Happy Astronomical Spring. Do you believe the GFS that it will be snowy over Snoqaulmie Pass the first weekend in April? Debating going to the Mariners game that weekend for Spring Break.

Impossible to know right now... that is still almost 2 weeks away.    We are going to WSU for our last parents weekend on 4/1 and 4/2.

Worth mentioning that even if its snowy... the roads are usually just wet during the day up there by this point in the year.    But if you are coming through when its dark out it could be a different story assuming the pattern is favorable for snow then.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That is so wrong.  That looks like a forecast for Stampede pass!    For starters... Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and at least party sunny.    Snow and 47 tomorrow?    It probably won't snow at all here over the next week and that shows snow on 5 of the next 7 days. 

Here is the just the next 2 days... these are very nice spring days.  

 

Send an email to the NWS and tell them their point and click forecasts are junk, then?

They obviously forgot your 2000ft mountaintop estate has the warmest and driest weather in the entire PNW west of the cascades.

[TT-SEA]

@Phil here is what my phone shows... a little less wintry.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Send an email to the NWS and tell them their point and click forecasts are junk, then?

They obviously forgot your 2000ft mountaintop estate has the warmest and driest weather in the entire PNW west of the cascades.

It's actually just barely under 1,000 feet.   But the real problem is there are tall mountains all around us and those point forecasts are worthless for my area.   

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It's actually just barely under 1,000 feet.   But the real problem is there are tall mountains all around us and those point forecasts are worthless for my area.   

So what specifically is wrong with this forecast?

[Phil]

Ironically one of my cousins from Everett is planning to move to North Bend this summer and start a family. IDK where specifically, but it would be hilarious if he winds up living in Tim’s neighborhood. Could compare observations and everything!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

So what specifically is wrong with this forecast?

Mostly sunny tomorrow with rain.  

Wednesday will be probably be close to 60.

And there won't be any snow here this work week.