PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow has definitely been real here, not even sure what you talking about in terms of phantom snow. My advice would just be to figure out what you need for snow in your area and then use common sense. 

[MossMan]

Stopped by the lake house for the first time in a while…The water level is still quite high. Still need to deal with my poor fishing boat that I forgot to pull up and turn over for the winter. It was high and dry on the jetski ramp in October. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Does the spring freshet become an issue down there often. 

Not really, 2011 there was some minor flooding on the Columbia. But the Willamette Basin has 13 flood control reservoirs, and they usually keep them low in anticipation of the spring melt. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snow has definitely been real here, not even sure what you talking about in terms of phantom snow. My advice would just be to figure out what you need for snow in your area and then use common sense. 

I think most everyone does that.   That is why they call it phantom snow because they know what a map is showing probably won't happen based on the set up in that situation.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Stopped by the lake house for the first time in a while…The water level is still quite high. Still need to deal with my poor fishing boat that I forgot to pull up and turn over for the winter. It was high and dry on the jetski ramp in October. 

That boat is your version of our dilapidated shed! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really tough runs for warm weather fans. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through yesterday SLE is at 42.9 for the month, which is tied for 5th coldest March all time (1892-present). Good chance that mean bumps up a little, but should end up with about a -4F departure for the month, 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really tough runs for warm weather fans. 

Its not even the warm season yet... the worm will turn!    And considering we are heading into a Nino period for the next couple of years its probably going to turn for a long while.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its not even the warm season yet... the worm will turn!    And considering we are heading into a Nino period for the next couple of years its probably going to turn for a long while.  

Given the past decade I am sure we will have plenty of warm weather, but as for the rest of your statement, there is no way to know. Very possible we have only one year of Nino. You probably are unaware, but Nina are more common then Ninos. An informed person would surmise the potential for ENSO neutral years as well, which tend to be exciting wildcards. We have compiled a massive debt of heat and drought and now the bill is coming due. Might be time to activate that escape hatch.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Burying an actual weather post in a bunch of useless whining sure is.

Keep fighting the good fight against weather evil!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Given the past decade I am sure we will have plenty of warm weather, but as for the rest of your statement, there is no way to know. Very possible we have only one year of Nino. You probably are unaware, but Nina are more common then Ninos. An informed person would surmise the potential for ENSO neutral years as well, which tend to be exciting wildcards. We have compiled a massive debt of heat and drought and now the bill is coming due. Might be time to activate that escape hatch.

You are on trolling roll today!  Phil thinks Ninos might dominate the second half of this decade.   Not that it's required for warm summers given the last 3 years of Ninas as we are all well aware.

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its not even the warm season yet... the worm will turn!    And considering we are heading into a Nino period for the next couple of years its probably going to turn for a long while.  

CFS is going moderate to strong with this coming Nino. 
 

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

CFS is going moderate to strong with this coming Nino. 
 

 

Probably too aggressive.   Personally I am hoping Jim is right about a weak Nino next winter.

[Cold Snap]

11 hours ago, Phil said:

Haven’t seen fog like this since Haida Gawaii, BC in 2017. Vis maybe 200ft.

I remember back in high school there were times the fog was so thick that I wasn’t able to see across the football field and that was at almost 500 feet elevation as well compared to the valley floor which is like 30 feet.

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Probably too aggressive.   Personally I am hoping Jim is right about a weak Nino next winter.

I would say weak is more likely but I could see it sneaking up to moderate which could give us 2002-03 and 2009-10 type analogs. 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

CFS is going moderate to strong with this coming Nino. 
 

 

Rock solid.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Rock solid.

We may be losing the good fight against weather evil if this verifies. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Rock solid.

I'm feeling a 2009-10 type enso event. Moderate to strong/one and done. 

1972-73 seems like a solid analog. 

 

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You are on trolling roll today!  Phil thinks Ninos might dominate the second half of this decade.   Not that it's required for warm summers given the last 3 years of Ninas as we are all well aware.

I would take what Phil says with a grain of salt, and that's putting it mildly. I still remember his call for a late June 2021 mega trough. 

Edited March 26 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Way to end the run!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2009-10 wouldn't be the end of the world. Great arctic blast in December and an incredible spring. If we have learned anything since February 2019 it is that the old rules/playbook no longer apply. It's a brave new world. Enjoy the RIDE! 

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

CFS is going moderate to strong with this coming Nino. 
 

 

That’s an egregious +SST bias, though.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm feeling a 2009-10 type enso event. Moderate to strong/one and done. 

1972-73 seems like a solid analog. 

 

I would take what Phil says with a grain of salt, and that's putting it mildly. I still remember his call for a late June 2021 mega trough. 

He does very well with ENSO stuff... he called for a multi-year Nina period in the early 2020s years before it happened. 

[TacomaWx]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You are on trolling roll today!  Phil thinks Ninos might dominate the second half of this decade.   Not that it's required for warm summers given the last 3 years of Ninas as we are all well aware.

For us cool wet weather fans, a nino summer (2019) is probably the best we’ve had in the last 10 years. Wasn’t all that chilly of course but goes to show that La Niña and El Niño don’t always play out the way we think they will. Especially the last few years…it’s almost been the opposite of what you’d expect from Nina’s and ninos. 

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2009-10 wouldn't be the end of the world. Great arctic blast in December and an incredible spring. If we have learned anything since February 2019 it is that the old rules/playbook no longer apply. It's a brave new world. Enjoy the RIDE! 

You’re late to the party. Jim boldly proclaimed climo had been thrown out the window back in 2005.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

For us cool wet weather fans, a nino summer (2019) is probably the best we’ve had in the last 10 years. Wasn’t all that chilly of course but goes to show that La Niña and El Niño don’t always play out the way we think they will. Especially the last few years…it’s almost been the opposite of what you’d expect from Nina’s and ninos. 

A 2019 type of summer would be good this year.    We need that.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A 2019 type of summer would be good this year.    We need that.

I get the feeling this warm season will be cooler and wetter than the last 2  years…although with how warm/dry those years were that’s not saying much. Don’t think this will be a 2011 type warm season...probably will be considered “cool” by post 2012 summer standards. 

[Omegaraptor]

14 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

For us cool wet weather fans, a nino summer (2019) is probably the best we’ve had in the last 10 years. Wasn’t all that chilly of course but goes to show that La Niña and El Niño don’t always play out the way we think they will. Especially the last few years…it’s almost been the opposite of what you’d expect from Nina’s and ninos. 

I think Phil said at one point that the easiest way to get a cool summer in the PNW now might actually be via a Nino.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we don't have a high at any WV station above 105 and a normal September then this summer will be a success. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ridiculous lows down in south central Oregon this morning. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really tough runs for warm weather fans. 

Amazing how this week just collapsed in terms of the mild weather that was advertised.

[Cascadia_Wx]

52 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Given the past decade I am sure we will have plenty of warm weather, but as for the rest of your statement, there is no way to know. Very possible we have only one year of Nino. You probably are unaware, but Nina are more common then Ninos. An informed person would surmise the potential for ENSO neutral years as well, which tend to be exciting wildcards. We have compiled a massive debt of heat and drought and now the bill is coming due. Might be time to activate that escape hatch.

Post of the year material, Andrew.

[MossMan]

33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2009-10 wouldn't be the end of the world. Great arctic blast in December and an incredible spring. If we have learned anything since February 2019 it is that the old rules/playbook no longer apply. It's a brave new world. Enjoy the RIDE! 

I hit single digits with the Dec 2009 event…Too bad all we got out of it was a slight dusting of snow. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Mostly cloudy here with a low of 37. Hoping we can clear out a bit for a frost or freeze tonight. The central and south valley did well this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Mostly cloudy here with a low of 37. Hoping we can clear out a bit for a frost or freeze tonight. The central and south valley did well this morning.

Out on the high desert, BNO hit 9 this morning. Not quite a record, but still a -19 departure. They are running an astonishing -12.7F departure month to date. 

[ShawniganLake]

41 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm feeling a 2009-10 type enso event. Moderate to strong/one and done. 

1972-73 seems like a solid analog. 

 

I would take what Phil says with a grain of salt, and that's putting it mildly. I still remember his call for a late June 2021 mega trough. 

72-73 had big time blasts here in December and January.  Top tier by today’s standards 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Post of the year material, Andrew.

LOL. 

A desperate trolling post is definitely post of the year.  

Elevating the discussion to new heights this morning.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Closer to home, it is almost a foregone conclusion now that March will end up with a lower mean temp here than January, and very possible we end up colder than December, which is notable as December was slightly below average. 

We will be very close, but very likely end up slightly below March 1951 in terms of mean temp. I also noticed at the Park the coldest average maximum in March was 43.2 from 2009, we will likely end up slightly below that as well. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It’s not even the warm season yet... the worm will turn!    And considering we are heading into a Nino period for the next couple of years it’s probably going to turn for a long while.  

The +ENSO correlation to warmth in NW North America, in isolation, is largely limited to winter/spring, so if that would be the statistically favored time of year for “worm-turnage”.

Though in reality each event is different, and numerous factors play into intradecadal variability. The persistence of the +NPMM/-SPMM dipole over the last decade, for example, has favored a wide+northward Pacific ITSZ/z-cell structure, which has augmented western warmth during boreal summer and autumn, all else being equal (which it hasn’t been, of course).

Though interestingly (an unexpectedly to me) we’ve seen that PMM dipole dramatically reverse phase in 2023, which appears related to the implosion of the La Niña base state. Will have to wait and see what the consequences of this are, but it could be the “worm turning” is merely what portion of the seasonal cycle the warmest/coolest anomalies occur.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GFS ensembles look really impressive.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The +ENSO correlation to warmth in NW North America, in isolation, is largely limited to winter/spring, so if that would be the statistically favored time of year for worm-turnage.

Though in reality each event is different, and numerous factors play into intradecadal variability. The persistence of the +NPMM/-SPMM dipole over the last decade, for example, has favored a wide+northward Pacific ITSZ/z-cell structure, which has augmented western warmth during boreal summer and autumn, all else being equal (which it hasn’t been, of course).

Though interestingly (an unexpectedly to me) we’ve seen that PMM dipole dramatically reverse phase in 2023, which appears related to the implosion of the La Niña base state. Will have to wait and see what the consequences of this are, but it could be the “worm turning” is merely what portion of the seasonal cycle the warmest/coolest anomalies occur.

Yeah... I was just using Andrew's favorite phrase to say the warm season is approaching.   I am sure it will be pretty nice overall and has to be better than last summer.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The +ENSO correlation to warmth in NW North America, in isolation, is largely limited to winter/spring, so if that would be the statistically favored time of year for “worm-turnage”.

Though in reality each event is different, and numerous factors play into intradecadal variability. The persistence of the +NPMM/-SPMM dipole over the last decade, for example, has favored a wide+northward Pacific ITSZ/z-cell structure, which has augmented western warmth during boreal summer and autumn, all else being equal (which it hasn’t been, of course).

Though interestingly (an unexpectedly to me) we’ve seen that PMM dipole dramatically reverse phase in 2023, which appears related to the implosion of the La Niña base state. Will have to wait and see what the consequences of this are, but it could be the “worm turning” is merely what portion of the seasonal cycle the warmest/coolest anomalies occur.

One thing I’ve noticed even with the Niño strengthening is that our offshore waters remain colder than average, and there is a pretty robust -PDO signature in the Pacific.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The +ENSO correlation to warmth in NW North America, in isolation, is largely limited to winter/spring, so if that would be the statistically favored time of year for worm-turnage.

Though in reality each event is different, and numerous factors play into intradecadal variability. The persistence of the +NPMM/-SPMM dipole over the last decade, for example, has favored a wide+northward Pacific ITSZ/z-cell structure, which has augmented western warmth during boreal summer and autumn, all else being equal (which it hasn’t been, of course).

Though interestingly (an unexpectedly to me) we’ve seen that PMM dipole dramatically reverse phase in 2023, which appears related to the implosion of the La Niña base state. Will have to wait and see what the consequences of this are, but it could be the “worm turning” is merely what portion of the seasonal cycle the warmest/coolest anomalies occur.

Just looking at 2013-2022 and the run of ridiculous summers we had, I have a hard time pinpointing ENSO as one of the major factors. The warmth was pretty consistent regardless of ENSO, even 2019 which people act like was a cool summer, was pretty warm overall. At this point its hard to say what will happen with summer. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I was just using Andrew's favorite phrase to say the warm season is approaching.   I am sure it will be pretty nice overall and has to be better than last summer.  

I'll be real here, Tim. The fact we are going to be sitting at 2 months of mega troughing by the time we hit mid-April lends some credence to the idea of worm turnage. Just like by the time we were torching like a wildfire into mid-October it seemed pretty obvious the pattern would flip big time when it did. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'll be real here, Tim. The fact we are going to be sitting at 2 months of mega troughing by the time we hit mid-April lends some credence to the idea of worm turnage. Just like by the time we were torching like a wildfire into mid-October it seemed pretty obvious the pattern would flip big time when it did. 

Agreed.

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday still looks like a split region per the 12Z ECMWF with sunshine and low 60s from Olympia northward while its cold and wet to the south.   

[Phil]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm feeling a 2009-10 type enso event. Moderate to strong/one and done. 

1972-73 seems like a solid analog. 

 

I would take what Phil says with a grain of salt, and that's putting it mildly. I still remember his call for a late June 2021 mega trough. 

I’d love a 2009/10 type (modoki) El Niño, but that’s not at all what it looks like to me. Though there’s still time for that to change if the dominoes fall the right way.

The 2nd part of your post is bulls**t, but you already knew that. I’m not great with finicky regional details, but I’ll put my record in predicting ENSO and large scale/seasonal  patterns up against yours any day.  

 

[AlTahoe]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Closer to home, it is almost a foregone conclusion now that March will end up with a lower mean temp here than January, and very possible we end up colder than December, which is notable as December was slightly below average. 

We will be very close, but very likely end up slightly below March 1951 in terms of mean temp. I also noticed at the Park the coldest average maximum in March was 43.2 from 2009, we will likely end up slightly below that as well. 

We are about to crush the March record for coldest max temp by over 1F. The current record holder is March 1958. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tuesday still looks like a split region per the 12Z ECMWF with sunshine and low 60s from Olympia northward while its cold and wet to the south.   

Nice rain band right over me there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d love a 2009/10 type (modoki) El Niño, but that’s not at all what it looks like to me. Though there’s still time for that to change if the dominoes fall the right way.

The 2nd part of your post is bulls**t, but you already knew that. I’m not great with finicky regional details, but I’ll put my record in predicting ENSO and large scale/seasonal  patterns up against yours any day.  

 

What are your early analogs? I've seen you mention 1997-98, if I recall that one had a pretty wet spring at least. 

[lowlandsnow]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

We are about to crush the March record for coldest max temp by over 1F. The current record holder is March 1958. 

Have you surpassed 2010-2011 for snowfall yet?