PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

How bout that 12z?

Almost as good as the thought of a purge of the 1%. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM is vastly different for early next week than its 00Z run.    It now shows that ULL heading south offshore rather than coming inland right over the PNW.  

 

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

GEFS looks a lot better with the late month stuff than previous runs. Really hoping he can avoid a phat ridge the last few days of the month since it will mess up the ANOMALIES.

12z is fighting the good fight against weather evil

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Almost as good as the thought of a purge of the 1%. 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS is much farther east with the troughing late next week compared to its 00Z run.    It also shows the ULL next week taking the path southward offshore.

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

12z is fighting the good fight against weather evil

Welcome back! 

[TacomaWx]

Right now we’re up to 42 freezes on the season as of march 17th. That’s quite a few for here…had 46 in 2008-2009 which is the most we’ve had in a cold season. 
 March is also -3.4F as of this morning. Looking pretty likely it’ll end up decently below normal. Quite a run since November with the exception of January. 
 Still kind of disappointed we couldn’t manage more than 1.5” of snow from Valentine’s Day through early March. We had snow or rain/snow mix so many days in that timeframe. The snow on 2/26 was nice though…and we had plenty of decent small events this winter. 

[The Blob]

Sun's out.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS actually does show something other than constant blue in the long range.  Baby steps.    

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Sun's out.

Coming out here too.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Coming out here too.

And here.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF take the low next week on a track closer to the coast and inland farther north... probably the most realistic scenario.   Still mostly bypasses western WA and is similar to other systems we have seen over the past month.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Wow the 12z Euro trended way cooler for next week than the 00z run.

It has cleared out now and the temp is up to 51, beautiful day. I see PDX fell to 39 this morning. Score.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like this EURO run gives us 19"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

12z is fighting the good fight against weather evil

I am recasting myself as a happy warrior. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like this EURO run gives us 19"

Insane... meanwhile probably nothing here and the spring green up continues.     Different world down there with this pattern.    

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like SLE hit 31 this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Severe clear here. As you can see, a little snow left in shady spots. 

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like SLE hit 31 this morning. 

I see it hit freezing at EUG!

[Gradient Keeper]

4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

it's not winter anymore

Correct.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

20 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I see it hit freezing at EUG!

Fake cold, does not count.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter Storm watch up for S. Oregon Cascades and E. Douglas County Foothills. 

[TacomaWx]

Some interesting statistical tidbits looking back on this winter. 
-Fairly chilly NOV-MAR. NOV (-4.2F) DEC (1.7F) JAN (+1.0F) FEB (1.7F) MAR (-3.4F)*
 -Low temp of 21 or lower in DEC (19) JAN (21) and FEB (21)
-Snow in NOV (1.9”) DEC (4.1”) JAN (TR.) and FEB (1.5”)

-2nd lowest max of the 21st century (25)

-15 measurable snowfall days

-14 sub 40 highs, 2 subfreezing highs 

-Rare ice storm 0.3” of ice

-42 sub freezing lows, 2nd behind 2008-2009

[TacomaWx]

I’d give this winter a B+ looking back on it now. Pulled off snow in each month November included. Lots of frequent light snowfalls which was cool. We had 2 separate arctic outbreaks…and remained decently chilly this entire cold season. Dry chilly winter overall. Main thing holding it back here was the lack of a significant snow event. The best event was 2” on 11/30-12/1….then the snow events on 12/4, 12/21 and 2/26 were nice 1” events as well. 

[Gradient Keeper]

5 hours ago, The Blob said:

sNOw

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Some interesting statistical tidbits looking back on this winter. 
-Fairly chilly NOV-MAR. NOV (-4.2F) DEC (1.7F) JAN (+1.0F) FEB (1.7F) MAR (-3.4F)*
 -Low temp of 21 or lower in DEC (19) JAN (21) and FEB (21)
-Snow in NOV (1.9”) DEC (4.1”) JAN (TR.) and FEB (1.5”)

-2nd lowest max of the 21st century (25)

-15 measurable snowfall days

-14 sub 40 highs, 2 subfreezing highs 

-Rare ice storm 0.3” of ice

-42 sub freezing lows, 2nd behind 2008-2009

Here are our stats, obviously March is incomplete

November: 36.8 mean 11" of snow 22 sub freezing lows 7 sub-40 highs

December 37.0 mean 3.4" of snow 18 sub freezing lows 15 sub-40 highs (1 sub freezing)

January: 37.4 mean 1.7" of snow 18 sub-freezing lows 5 sub-40 highs

February: 35.1 mean 34.6" of snow 22 sub freezing lows 10 sub-40 highs (5 sub freezing) 

March: 36.1 mean 19.8" of snow 21 sub freezing lows 7 sub-40 highs

Total: 102 sub-freezing lows 44 sub-40 highs, 6 sub freezing highs, 70.5" of snow. Low of 16 on January 30th, lows 14, 12, 17 February 23-25th. 

[LowerGarfield]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’d give this winter a B+ looking back on it now. Pulled off snow in each month November included. Lots of frequent light snowfalls which was cool. We had 2 separate arctic outbreaks…and remained decently chilly this entire cold season. Dry chilly winter overall. Main thing holding it back here was the lack of a significant snow event. The best event was 2” on 11/30-12/1….then the snow events on 12/4, 12/21 and 2/26 were nice 1” events as well. 

I'm really curious if everyone in the NW on this board had at least some measurable snow at least once? @TigerWoodsLibido and @MWG had some and they are the most likely to miss out. @PuyallupChris and @Winterdogtoo. 

[LowerGarfield]

This is now the season where I start to root for rain rather than snow. Any delay to fire season is good. Even if it means the grasses can grow too much. I'd still rather have a wet spring and a short burst of fire that is easily contained. Sort of like a kid throwing a cereal box on a fire where it burns quick and snuffs out shortly after. Trees need that water.

 

Yes snow is better than rain for stopping fires...What I mean is that I don't get disappointed when I see rain this time of year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is a compiling winter. Here the early November period and late February period really stand out, but overall just solid from start to finish. Even the bad month (January), was salvaged a bit. If this late week trough verifies anything close to what the models are showing its going to be hard to argue this wasn't the best winter of the past 12 years up here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is a compiling winter. Here the early November period and late February period really stand out, but overall just solid from start to finish. Even the bad month (January), was salvaged a bit. If this late week trough verifies anything close to what the models are showing its going to be hard to argue this wasn't the best winter of the past 12 years up here. 

We have also had measurable snow on 29 different days and in every month from November-March. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter Storm watch up now for the East Slopes of the Oregon Cascades. 

[TT-SEA]

Just a lovely day... sunshine and 55.   Slight chill to the breeze unlike Saturday but still spectacular. 

[TacomaWx]

24 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I'm really curious if everyone in the NW on this board had at least some measurable snow at least once? @TigerWoodsLibido and @MWG had some and they are the most likely to miss out. @PuyallupChris and @Winterdogtoo. 

I think just about everyone on the forum got something…but there was a lot of hit or miss stuff this year. Certain areas struggled due to either elevation or just in the wrong spot being too far north/south. Typical problems with getting snow in the lowlands very rare that everyone does well. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Today has all the marks of another massive overachiever. AKA the mark of the BEAST Andrew. @SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Today has all the marks of another massive overachiever. AKA the mark of the BEAST Andrew. @SilverFallsAndrew

Haven't been paying attention. Focused on all these WSW coming out. Foothills, Cascades, COAST RANGE! Just dropped!

[TT-SEA]

If we go back on here 5 days ago... there was talk of lowland snow happening today.   Including by me because even the ECMWF was showing 4-6 inches of snow in my area at that time for late last night and this morning.    Sometimes things work out nicely.    

Andrew's response when today and tomorrow started looking much nicer was "F that".   

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Haven't been paying attention. Focused on all these WSW coming out. Foothills, Cascades, COAST RANGE! Just dropped!

Dropped like DJ Bonners hottest new album. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is a beautiful albeit warm day. Going to crash hard. IMO this trough isn't getting enough love. It's incredibly impressive for late March. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS going with 4-10" here through Friday night. Seems reasonable. 

[TacomaWx]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is a beautiful albeit warm day. Going to crash hard. IMO this trough isn't getting enough love. It's incredibly impressive for late March. 

That’s because most of us on the forum are low elevation peasants and an incredible late March trough usually means 1000’ foot snow levels. It does look pretty decent for this time of year though. Seems possible some lucky folks could get some slushy accumulations in the lowlands if precip hits at the right time. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some snowflakes even here at some point.