PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Create your own thread for this garbage, please.

Okay garbage man.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

There are so many conflicting points in this post I’m not quite sure how to address it.

Out of curiosity checked NWS Spokane and it looks like GEG is exactly at normal for the water year to date (10.44”). They are running about an inch and a half behind year to date, but there is still plenty of time for them to catch up later in the spring. I know that seasonal precip patterns are different over the east side and a few ULLs in April or May could make things up quickly.

Also, Montana snowpack could be a little better in spots, but I definitely wouldn’t call this a dire situation.

[GHweatherChris]

14 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Tornado just blew through Montebello, CA and ripped a roof off a building according the the Fire Chief I just spoke with, that is a part of my job sometimes.

Pretty sad that a Tornado in California can't even dent the bull narcissism and ridiculous incessant amount of unnecessary posts on here today. 

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I don't know (wasn't here in 2008) but feels like if this spring gets any drier. we're going to torch and get awfully smoky (at least over here) while CA and most of OR enjoy mild(er) summers.  I'll be spending most of Aug/Sept on the east coast at the beach condo (again, like 20 and 21).  Western MT also has below normal snowpack this spring, worse than here actually

You enjoy being a sweating mess within 30 seconds of walking outside?? Masochist.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

the "i don't know" part really sets the table

I appreciate you taking my comments in stride. 2008 was a on the dry side but a chilly spring with a huge low elevation snow pack, at least on this side of the Cascades. Very quiet fire season that summer though, might have to do with the fact that June was cool and wet and the rest of the season didn’t see unbroken months of Central Valley style heat. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Pretty sad that a Tornado in California can't even dent the bull narcissism and ridiculous incessant amount of unnecessary posts on here today. 

Narcissism is the perfect word.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Pretty sad that a Tornado in California can't even dent the bull narcissism and ridiculous incessant amount of unnecessary posts on here today. 

We don't live in CA.   We usually discuss PNW weather.   That was pretty interesting though! 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Narcissism is the perfect word.

Since the same two people resort to making it personal again... that shoe fits you very well too.

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

You enjoy being a sweating mess within 30 seconds of walking outside?? Masochist.

I like warm water beaches in summer.  grew up around it and miss it.  It's way better than choking on smoke

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

I like warm water beaches in summer.  grew up around it and miss it.  It's way better than choking on smoke

Hopefully we can avoid a smoky summer this year.

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I appreciate you taking my comments in stride. 2008 was a on the dry side but a chilly spring with a huge low elevation snow pack, at least on this side of the Cascades. Very quiet fire season that summer though, might have to do with the fact that June was cool and wet and the rest of the season didn’t see unbroken months of Central Valley style heat. 

dude, it takes a lot to offend me. I just like conversation. Whether it be corny, crass, goofy, on point, whatever.  I'm on some other online communities non weather related and this place is a breath of fresh air in comparison

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow a lot of “ignored” content being posted today!

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

dude, it takes a lot to offend me. I just like conversation. Whether it be corny, crass, goofy, on point, whatever.  I'm on some other online communities non weather related and this place is a breath of fresh air in comparison

Yeah but I probably could have been less harsh at first even if I didn’t agree with all of your points. You’re a good sport. And glad you enjoy it here.

[Phishy Wx]

lol 'ignore'

who does that?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After checking out the 12z runs I can see why there is so much panic. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow a lot of “ignored” content being posted today!

Chat GPT run amok.  

Edited March 22, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[TT-SEA]

EPS takes the ULL next week inland into southern OR and northern CA.   Probably the most likely scenario.   This would keep much of western WA out of the main action... similiar to what have seen over the last 4 or 5 weeks. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Chat GPT run amok.  

Appreciate you 

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Appreciate you 

Can’t wait for that 12z EPS!

[Phil]

This is a Jim pattern if I’ve ever seen one. Reinforcing shortwave diving in right from the north.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF was drier than normal for western WA... recurring theme lately.   Interestingly you can also see the imprint of that ULL spinning offshore early next week.   

[Phishy Wx]

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS looks similar to the ECMWF... also drier than normal for western WA over the next 10 days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is a Jim pattern if I’ve ever seen one. Reinforcing shortwave diving in right from the north.

Seems like all the models starting to lock in on this. 

[Doinko]

Euro has some snow for PDX Saturday morning while temps are at freezing

 

 

[MossMan]

Today’s daily dose of the GFS PNA! 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Euro has some snow for PDX Saturday morning while temps are at freezing

 

 

Even the Kuchera shows accumulating snow down there.   Pretty impressive. 

[Phishy Wx]

local news saying we could get something on the grassy surfaces.

[Phishy Wx]

also pretty crazy

 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looking pretty impressive:

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

Tornado just blew through Montebello, CA and ripped a roof off a building according the the Fire Chief I just spoke with, that is a part of my job sometimes.

The commentary is amazing. Lol 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Lots of towering cumulus developing over the Cascades and to a lesser extent the coast range this afternoon. Cooler air working in aloft even though the pattern at the surface still favors low level warmth, for now. Early harbingers of a chilly and active pattern to come. 

 

Mostly sunny and 59 currently.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Lots of towering cumulus developing over the Cascades and to a lesser extent the coast range this afternoon. Cooler air working in aloft even though the pattern at the surface still favors low level warmth, for now. Early harbingers of a chilly and active pattern to come. 

 

Mostly sunny and 59 currently.

NWS mentioned a chance of some thunderstorms this afternoon

[Ken in Wood Village]

Some thunderstorm activities West of Salem 🌩

[TT-SEA]

Some North Bend scenes this afternoon.

[Phishy Wx]

[Ken in Wood Village]

I thought I would post the radar and lightning tracker again. For some reason the lightning tracker isn't showing the moisture. You can see the other moisture East of the Portland area but not West of Portland. As you can see, there are some intense showers further up from the one producing lightning. I'm thinking those could produce lightning soon. That one cell looks like it could be having a 30% chance of half inch hail. 

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I thought I would post the radar and lightning tracker again. For some reason the lightning tracker isn't showing the moisture. You can see the other moisture East of the Portland area but not West of Portland. As you can see, there are some intense showers further up from the one producing lightning. I'm thinking those could produce lightning soon. That one cell looks like it could be having a 30% chance of half inch hail. 

Radarscope always overdoes hail sizes unfortunately.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Another big dog overachiever today temp wise. Hopefully we got some solidly cool days later this week to balance it out.

[Phishy Wx]

58 here, thinking we hit that 60 burger if the clouds don't get thicker