PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh...

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh...

Looks dry here on that map.

[GHweatherChris]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh...

So glad to be heading back toward some cool/chilly air.

[TT-SEA]

Really good soaking the last couple hours... fertilizer is throughly watered in now.

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh...

Is that my foot of snow? 

[TT-SEA]

The same theme continues...

[Cascadia_Wx]

43 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Undoubtedly. But it has historical precedent for both the cold and the snow; that is what I am referring to, not if it was significant or not. 1989, 1956, 1936, and 1916 all had either more snow, cold, or both for much of the region, and there are probably many more examples.

Our recent heat records are blowing away anything we've ever seen since this region during recorded history.

No, the hot summers have been great. So nice to finally dry out and see some of the moss around here shrivel up for once. And the nice thing is the winters have gotten just as cold on the flip side and are balancing things out nicely. With less rain all around which is perfect. We are well on our way to becoming a Waterville-esque shrub steppe climate any year now, maybe even sooner if we avoid an El Niño. Alex Jones told me so.

[TT-SEA]

Good Lord.

 

[Meatyorologist]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good Lord.

 

I think it's more of a dig at Jim than it is at you.

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Undoubtedly. But it has historical precedent for both the cold and the snow; that is what I am referring to, not if it was significant or not. 1989, 1956, 1936, and 1916 all had either more snow, cold, or both for much of the region, and there are probably many more examples.

Our recent heat records are blowing away anything we've ever seen since this region during recorded history.

1887 too

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think it's more of a dig at Jim than it is at you.

Well aware.   And the "Good Lord" stands.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Well aware.   And the "Good Lord" stands.    

Yes he does. 

[Deweydog]

[Omegaraptor]

 

January 1937 at Las Vegas. Subfreezing monthly average.

If this happened again nearly every palm tree in the city would shrivel up and die. Lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

 

January 1937 at Las Vegas. Subfreezing monthly average.

If this happened again nearly every palm tree in the city would shrivel up and die. Lol

That's bonkers. 

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's bonkers. 

The catch is... Las Vegas kind of has a massive UHI now. Probably would neuter those crazy numbers a bit.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

January 1937 at Las Vegas. Subfreezing monthly average.

If this happened again nearly every palm tree in the city would shrivel up and die. Lol

Just admit that a little part of your soul would too.  

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Rainy equinox in the EPSL.   Live view from Issaquah shows the rain and recent warmth is waking up the landscape.  

 

Yesterday evening there was still snow visible on the very top of the peak that's on the left side of this picture. Could only see it from Issquah Highlands as I was driving through but I was amazed there was still a patch of white up there. Even Poo Poo Point held on to a patch of snow until Friday. It doesn't seem like the elevation is that much!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

The catch is... Las Vegas kind of has a massive UHI now. Probably would neuter those crazy numbers a bit.

True. Especially because the airport is right on the Strip.

[Omegaraptor]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Just admit that a little part of your soul would too.  

Palms are not native there. They also require heavy irrigation to survive in a 4" annual rainfall climate with no streams or natural water nearby. 

There used to be way more palms in south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Then they got a little Christmas present from ma' nature in 1983. Most of them were not replanted.

[Cascadia_Wx]

48 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think it's more of a dig at Jim than it is at you.

Yeah. No harm either way. Just doing a little venting Phred style

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah. No harm either way. Just doing a little venting Phred style

i mean i have to vent sometimes too, i get it. i'd be a hypocrite if i started dogging on you for letting some steam out

[Cascadia_Wx]

Today managed to stay fairly chilly. High of just 49. Was dry until early afternoon with frequent showers since. South winds have died down a little too.

The next two days look fairly mild but pleasant, highs in the low 60s and lows in the mid to upper 30s, then we get the super trough from Thursday-Sunday.

[TT-SEA]

56/46 day at SEA... with a precip total of only .14

[Phil]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

I heard that Phil has the glass cabin at Desolation Peak under contract! Looks like just enough parking for his Acura as well! 

The Acura got totaled last September  (elderly driver ran a red, not my fault!!) Now I drive a 2018 2SS convertible Camaro and I love it.

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I love that stupid argument because

1) The warm extremes are vastly more common and more divorced from climatology, and are causing extensive, observable damage.

2) The cold and snow 'extremes' we've come to recieve in the last half decade a have an equal or a superior analog some distance into the past, whether that be from 2016-17 or 1861-62. Often times there are multiple analogs with much more vigor. January's 1949 and 1950 are the ultimate examples. Nothing we have recieved even comes close to unprecedented cold. Even the April 2022 snowstorm in the Portland area has analogs in 2008 and 1929.

Perhaps October 2019 in Spokane? That's the only cold extreme I can think of that's actually gone and surprised me with its teeth and its longevity and historical significance.

February 2015 has no rival here. By far the coldest airmass ever for so late in the season (and one of the coldest airmasses all-time by itself).

This year is basically the inverse of 2015 here, in every respect, from mid-October to present. Perfect “anti” analog.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

The Acura got totaled last September  (elderly driver ran a red, not my fault!!) Now I drive a 2018 2SS convertible Camaro and I love it.

February 2015 has no rival here. By far the coldest airmass ever for so late in the season (and one of the coldest airmasses all-time by itself).

Maybe you will get a repeat of 2015 in 2024.    

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe you will get a repeat of 2015 in 2024.    

Ha, I doubt it. That type of +TNH/+PNA winter tends to occur during the heart of the IPWP extension. We’re still in the retracted portion of the cycle. Second half of this decade should be lit, though .

But 2014/15 could ironically serve as a reverse analog, since the IPWP-H/W system is diametrically opposed to where it was then. Literally everything about this winter has been the opposite of 2014/15. Out here especially.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Literally everything about this winter has been the opposite of 2014/15. Out here especially.

Here too.

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ha, I doubt it. That type of +TNH/+PNA winter tends to occur during the heart of the IPWP extension. We’re still in the retracted portion of the cycle. Second half of this decade should be lit, though .

But 2014/15 could ironically serve as a reverse analog, since the IPWP-H/W system is diametrically opposed to where it was then. Literally everything about this winter has been the opposite of 2014/15. Out here especially.

That's interesting considering August/September/October 2014 were all the warmest on record at PDX, and then August/September/October 2022 were also all the warmest on record. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

That's interesting considering August/September/October 2014 were all the warmest on record at PDX, and then August/September/October 2022 were also all the warmest on record. 

Yeah when the EASM is active (summer/early fall) the mechanics and correlating forcings are different, so any signal is lost or blurred beyond recognition.

Need to look elsewhere for predictability during that timeframe.

[TT-SEA]

This movie came up on my Amazon Prime last night... might be the single worst movie trailer I have ever seen.   Also a dream come true for some of us on here.  

 Ice Movie Trailer

[Phishy Wx]

Question:  What's the nearest station reporting wind speed data for Hillsboro Oregon?

 

Had a request from a colleague that knows I follow the weather asking me about some wind speed data

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

February 2015 has no rival here. By far the coldest airmass ever for so late in the season (and one of the coldest airmasses all-time by itself).

After doing some digging, 2015 was impressive from an upper level standpoint, but the magnitude of its airmasses was absolutely not unprecedented. Looking at the back half of February, from the 15th of the month onwards, you'll find years like 1943, 1958, and 1979 all sporting much more impressive cold records.

Where February 2015 separates itself from climatology is in its duration. The 2/15-28 average temperature at Reagan Intl. shows 2015 as an outlier by a wild margin. And looking at the day-by-day, it appears that the same mid-upper end airmass just parked itself over the NE, bringing in unseasonably cold Arctic weather. But it wasn't this impossibly cold airmass that had never occurred before.

Oh, and that last sentence, come on. How do you think Jan 1994 or 1982 would feel hearing you say that...

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Question:  What's the nearest station reporting wind speed data for Hillsboro Oregon?

 

Had a request from a colleague that knows I follow the weather asking me about some wind speed data

KHIO records wind speed data: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/hillsboro/KHIO

[T-Town]

Happening now. 

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

was suppose to rain today, .3-.5" ish

 

lol, nothing but clouds and 51

 

trying to pivot in, but looks like dry air is winning the battle

I was looking at the UW radar loop... precip is actually moving away from Spokane now to the SW and you got skunked there.

Overall it looks like a squeeze is happening across WA with SW flow meeting NE flow with some impressive radar returns in SW WA.   Eventually NE flow will win out as the parent low moves towards CA.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Happening now. 

GOD IS RETURNING. Hide your Will and Grace DVD box set Andrew!

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

After doing some digging, 2015 was impressive from an upper level standpoint, but the magnitude of its airmasses was absolutely not unprecedented. Looking at the back half of February, from the 15th of the month onwards, you'll find years like 1943, 1958, and 1979 all sporting much more impressive cold records.

Where February 2015 separates itself from climatology is in its duration. The 2/15-28 average temperature at Reagan Intl. shows 2015 as an outlier by a wild margin. And looking at the day-by-day, it appears that the same mid-upper end airmass just parked itself over the NE, bringing in unseasonably cold Arctic weather. But it wasn't this impossibly cold airmass that had never occurred before.

Oh, and that last sentence, come on. How do you think Jan 1994 or 1982 would feel hearing you say that...

1) Radiosonde datasets confirm Feb 2015 was the coldest airmass ever recorded at 850mb during the month of February. Nothing else is even in the ballpark.

2) The other late February cold records you mention were augmented by snowpack/radiational cooling at the surface. February 2015 was pure advection over increasingly urbanized + bare ground. Which makes it even more impressive.

That airmass simply has no precedent. Like, nothing comes even remotely close.

 

[Phil]

Coldest 850mb temperatures ever record at IAD/DCA for the month of February, and January, respectively.

[Phil]

On the other hand, December has f**king imploded as a winter month. Has been unable to produce top tier cold airmasses for 2+ decades now. 🫤