January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think Tim from early winter hacked Andrew’s account.

 

Just presenting a full range of information. I am not ignoring the good trends, runs, or the "bad" trends and runs. Overall the trends are positive!

[HighlandExperience]

Not sure. few inches in Seattle proper. I had about 5 but also 55mph north winds. That was the strongest outflow in my area since December 1990. The low crossed from ocean shores to Olympia then east. Not a huge snow event but very dynamic storm.

Yea I vaguely remember that. We hardly see strong outflow like that anymore.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February 2014 like overrunning event at hour 300

 

[Front Ranger]

Yea I vaguely remember that. We hardly see strong outflow like that anymore.

Dec 1990 was one of the strongest and most dynamic outflow events in the past 100 years. The vast majority of Arctic events from the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s wouldn't even compare. Highly unusual.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dec 1990 was one of the strongest and most dynamic outflow events in the past 100 years. The vast majority of Arctic events from the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s wouldn't even compare. Highly unusual.

Only time I've experinced 60 mph wind and ten degrees here.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much farther south on Saturday morning than previous runs.

[Front Ranger]

Comparing the Euro to yesterday's 12z, the block is stronger, more amplified, and has better tilt. Cold air is further south and west as well.

 

This thing continues to pick up steam and trend the right way.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12Z ECMWF is much farther south on Saturday morning than previous runs.

 

Let's dig it down!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jbolin]

The big question is, will it snow at Tim's house?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The models are showing the cold air penetrating much further south, but swinging in from the NW like 2010... GEM throws out some fanciful 1989 like numbers for kicks.

 

Frigid!

[Front Ranger]

I don't see much danger of this thing trending east. If anything, we don't want to see it trend west much more. The Euro is setting up for a pretty snowy pattern at day 4.

[Front Ranger]

Looks fantastic at day 5. Snow maps should be improved.

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

I don't see much danger of this thing trending east. If anything, we don't want to see it trend west much more. The Euro is setting up for a pretty snowy pattern at day 4.

A westward trend has screwed us in the past... but this is too close now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Super Bowl snowstorm for WA.  519 line makes it to EUG 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks fantastic at day 5. Snow maps should be improved.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png

What a Trough!

 

[Front Ranger]

850 temps are a notch warmer for WA lowlands compared to yesterday, but that's just due to the trough digging further west. I think day 6 on will be colder, as the really cold air is in better position to be pulled down by the trough as it slides southeast.

[Perturbed Member]

Hoping things being a bit further west might help with getting us a bit more moisture going into this. 

[TT-SEA]

Super Bowl snowstorm for WA.  519 line makes it to EUG 

 

 

Sunday afternoon...

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z EMC GEFS plumes showing the most snow they have yet for both KSEA and KPDX.

 

Mean for 4PM Monday for KSEA...

 

18z: 0.58 inches

00z: 1.14 inches

06z: 1.05 inches

12z: 1.38 inches

 

Mean for 4PM Monday for KPDX...

 

18z: 0.77 inches

00z: 1.67 inches

06z: 2.16 inches

12z: 2.77 inches

 

Now let's continue this trend right up to the event.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sunday afternoon...

 

 

750ft snow levels.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Monday morning...

 

[Randyc321]

Not sure. few inches in Seattle proper. I had about 5 but also 55mph north winds. That was the strongest outflow in my area since December 1990. The low crossed from ocean shores to Olympia then east. Not a huge snow event but  very dynamic storm.

 

I haven't even posted here this winter but have been reading all year long, as usual.  I want to chime in about November 2010.  That was a crazy storm.  It was real cold and still and snowing powdery, small flakes.  A few inches accumulated and then all at once the wind hit like a bomb.  It was dark outside, but the living room window went white from the dry snow blowing off the roof, and then within 5 minutes the power was out and it got cold as F quick.  That was one to remember for sure.  Lived in East Bremerton at the time.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

More snow than 00z pretty much everywhere but the CZ signature is conspicuously absent. Not that it means much at this point.

 

 

The king still showing us a regional event. 

[TT-SEA]

More snow than 00z pretty much everywhere but the CZ signature is conspicuously absent. Not that it means much at this point.

 

 

 

C-zone will be less of a factor if the low dives just offshore.

[FroYoBro]

I know there is plenty of time, but this definitely doesn't look like a snow maker for the lowlands with the initial trough. Places above 1000 feet are going to do great though. 

[Andrew.]

[Perturbed Member]

I know there is plenty of time, but this definitely doesn't look like a snow maker for the lowlands with the initial trough. Places above 1000 feet are going to do great though. 

 

This pattern is almost never a big widespread snow maker for the lowlands down here. Still a quick inch or two is doable if things go right. 

[seattleweatherguy]

C-zone will be less of a factor if the low dives just offshore.

 

Bummer for people in bothell or everett who could get more if its in their area, but does the low dives just offshore allow everyone to get snow versus if not?

[TT-SEA]

The snow shadow in the Puget Sound area fills in a little more by 10PM Monday.

 

 

ECMWF shows some snow showers lingering longer on Monday... pretty light though and no real c-zone signature.     Temps are around freezing in Seattle.

[Front Ranger]

I know there is plenty of time, but this definitely doesn't look like a snow maker for the lowlands with the initial trough. Places above 1000 feet are going to do great though. 

 

Very difficult to get a widespread snowmaker for everyone with initial Arctic troughs. Even Nov 2010 or Feb 2011 "screwed" some people.

 

This looks about as promising as it gets for lowland snow in general 4-5 days out, though (aside from overrunning situations).

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This pattern is almost never a big widespread snow maker for the lowlands down here. Still a quick inch or two is doable if things go right. 

 

Isn't it usually just isolated stuff and no banding? Tho places up against the west slopes of the mtns will do a bit better.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Tuesday morning... snow lingers longer.    Improvement over 00Z run.

 

[Perturbed Member]

Isn't it usually just isolated stuff and no banding? Tho places up against the west slopes of the mtns will do a bit better.

 

Yeah a lot of the time it is much more showery but sometimes we can get more organized clusters of showers or some light banding if we get a decent low tracking just right. I've never seen these things produce the sort of results we can get with overruning here though. 

[Front Ranger]

At day 7, there is not as much cold air down the west coast compared to yesterday, but there is also still a lot more really cold air left in SW BC to draw from. How snowy the rest of the run is will probably come down to where lows approach the coast.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FB_IMG_1548873166944.jpg

Now that's something you don't hear everyday.

[Front Ranger]

Another interesting difference with this run is the increased amount of Arctic/NAO blocking to the north, which could serve to lock in the cold air for longer.

[Esquimalt]

8-9

[Jesse]

Just not enough oomph to get the really cold 850s down here by hour 168 on the Euro. That’s some very cold air brushing NE Washington, though. Could lead to some pretty chilly outflow.