January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Blizzard777]

What a beautiful day..no coat needed

55/33 and a little spotty shower this evening with and exciting week ahead of the unknown

[Timmy]

Not sure this nam is gonna go well

[TT-SEA]

Not sure this nam is gonna go well

 

 

Not looking good... way west.

[Blizzard777]

Angry winds

Icon

[TT-SEA]

What happened to Sunday?   This run makes the 18Z run look really good.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Esquimalt]

It's not further west than the 18z? It actually moves NNE from hr 69 to hr 78.

 

There's just that weird new low  on the Washington coast

[Timmy]

It's not further west than the 18z? It actually moves NNE from hr 69 to hr 78.

 

It initially was then turned back. Cold air all went out in the ocean

[TT-SEA]

There's just that weird new low  on the Washington coast

 

 

Its way west of the 18Z run.  

 

Terrible run.   

[TT-SEA]

We now have new worst case scenario... the 00Z NAM.   

 

It actually agrees almost perfectly with the bad 18Z GFS at 84 hours.   

[Esquimalt]

That looks like a nice snowstorm setup on the NAM if it the low stalls a little further north and closer to the island

[Timmy]

We now have new worst case scenario... the 00Z NAM.

it almost looks like it would be more wet, and good

For offshore flow.

[Esquimalt]

it almost looks like it would be more wet, and good

For offshore flow.

Its not that bad. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Strong low off our coast that will probably make for a good snow storm for some places. 989mb also.

[seattleweatherguy]

models are all over the place! hope the euro stays strong

[Esquimalt]

Strong low off our coast that will probably make for a good snow storm for some places. 989mb also.

I don't think a big enough precipitation field is being shown on that. 

[wxmet]

Trough is farther west on the NAM 00z with the low occluding off-shore. Models still don’t have a good idea on the energy that’s going to be traversing through the northern Pacific over the next 2-3.

[Cloud]

Well... if it keeps going west then at least some remnants of the blob will enjoy the snow

[Jesse]

We now have new worst case scenario... the 00Z NAM.   

 

It actually agrees almost perfectly with the bad 18Z GFS at 84 hours.   

 

With the amazing ECMWF as a backdrop.

[TT-SEA]

Its not that bad.

For who? It's a complete non-event for western WA and OR.

[GHweatherChris]

Its closing time....

[Deweydog]

18z was clearly up to its old tricks again.

 

Pesky motherf*cker...

[Requiem]

For who? It's a complete non-event for western WA and OR.

 

For BC, probably. Honestly almost no matter what happens looks like BC will get something.

[MikeInEverett]

I guess I'm crazy because I don't think the 00z NAM is that bad.

 

It introduces a new wrinkle with the low sitting and spinning off the WA coast, strengthening ever so slightly as it does so.

 

Good potential for better precip amounts, if you ask me. Certainly not as bad as the 18z GFS taking it all the way down the coastline.

I thought the same thing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

For who? It's a complete non-event for western WA and OR.

all of western wa? Nope. That low will be rotating bands up and most will be snow. Last frame shows this.

[TT-SEA]

I guess I'm crazy because I don't think the 00z NAM is that bad.

 

It introduces a new wrinkle with the low sitting and spinning off the WA coast, strengthening ever so slightly as it does so.

 

Good potential for better precip amounts, if you ask me. Certainly not as bad as the 18z GFS taking it all the way down the coastline.

It literally doing that at 84 hours. It's going down the coast. You are just being misled by the bands rotating around the main low.

 

Compare the precip map at 84 hours to 18Z GFS at 90 hours.

[Requiem]

all of western wa? Nope. That low will be rotating bands up and most will be snow. Last frame shows this.

 

I guess for PDX south then, if anywhere.

[Timmy]

Icon out to hour 15 looks like the nam, we’re screwed

[Jesse]

Big upward jump on the 18z ensembles. Mean only bottoms out just under -5C for PDX. Compared to -10C yesterday.

 

[Requiem]

Big upward jump on the 18z ensembles. Mean only bottoms out just under -5C for PDX. Compared to -10C yesterday.

 

182E7D9B-3F4B-45B6-AC2B-92993C16EB69.png

 

Ouch.

[Jesse]

Ouch.

Yeah. Maybe the 00z runs (excluding the NAM) will start turning things around. At very least this looks to still be our coolest pattern of the winter. Though that really isn’t saying much.

[TT-SEA]

Uh... Am I looking at the right model suite? How is this "going down the coast"?

 

It literally pulls north and by it I mean the low center, not the bands.

It is... you are just not wanting to see it.

 

00Z NAM at 84 hours:

 

 

 

18Z GFS at 90 hours...

 

 

 

 

And here was the 18Z GFS just 12 hours later:

 

 

 

 

The entire thing is rotating down the coast. If you watch the NAM you can see the same thing. You have focus on the center of the ULL.

[Requiem]

Yeah. Maybe the 00z runs (excluding the NAM) will start turning things around. At very least this looks to still be our coolest pattern of the winter. Though that really isn’t saying much.

 

I really hope so, because as far as this year goes every single other place in the US has received (or is soon due to receive) at least some interesting weather except our drab corner.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow yeah. I dozed off, woke up and see 00z NAM is a Winter Cancel for everyone.

[seattleweatherguy]

Wow yeah. I dozed off, woke up and see 00z NAM is a Winter Cancel for everyone.

Onto euro

[TigerWoodsLibido]

No need for a night shift tonight.

[Requiem]

Wow yeah. I dozed off, woke up and see 00z NAM is a Winter Cancel for everyone.

 

This is so sad. We live in a region where things fall apart so easily and it so difficult just to get an inch of snow. 

[TT-SEA]

I'm not seeing it because it's not there, Tim.  

 

You are extrapolating out past hour 84 and using the 18z GFS as an assumption of what will happen. That is not the same as the 00z NAM showing the low going down the coast, which is what I was talking about. Two completely different things.

 

 

It is there.   You are being fooled by the lobe rotating to the NE at the end of the run.  The GFS had the exact same thing.   When it rounds the top of the ULL...  the southward progression continues.   

 

You will probably see the same thing on the 00Z GFS and be able to go beyond 84 hours.    Its all the same... the NAM just stops before it becomes really obvious but it going in the same direction.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is so sad. We live in a region where things fall apart so easily and it so difficult just to get an inch of snow. 

 

Get ready for this to keep happening more often going forward.  Our access to Arctic air keeps getting further cut off every year.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Going to be a great couple days of 30 to 40 degree weather with a little sloppy snow. Truly a classic PNW result and it is better than nothing. Even without snow at least we get a little cooler weather.