January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Perturbed Member]

Big upward jump on the 18z ensembles. Mean only bottoms out just under -5C for PDX. Compared to -10C yesterday.

 

182E7D9B-3F4B-45B6-AC2B-92993C16EB69.png

 

 

This event feels like it might be on life support by the end of the night at this rate.

[MikeInEverett]

It's over.

[Requiem]

Going to be a great couple days of 30 to 40 degree weather with a little sloppy snow. Truly a classic PNW result and it is better than nothing. Even without snow as least we get a little cooler weather.

 

PDX will be VERY lucky to even see any sloppy snow. What an "event" hahaha

[MikeInEverett]

Feel like people are overreacting a bit tonight.

[Esquimalt]

Icon is west. What a surpise

[TT-SEA]

I'm not seeing it because it's not there, Tim.  

 

You are extrapolating out past hour 84 and using the 18z GFS as an assumption of what will happen. That is not the same as the 00z NAM showing the low going down the coast, which is what I was talking about. Two completely different things.

 

 

You can also loop the 18Z GFS and just stop it at 90 hours.   You would think the same thing... its heading NE.    But then run the next few frames.    I think its sort of an optical illusion.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

PDX will be VERY lucky to even see any sloppy snow. What an "event" hahaha

Not funny. You were in pure panic life support over a wind storm.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ICON though 1 PM Saturday looks the same as previous runs! C'MON Hasselhoff !!!!

 

[Requiem]

Feel like people are overreacting a bit tonight.

 

I mean, the event is falling apart, and is our last chance at something in this disgustingly boring winter.

[luvssnow_spokane]

PDX will be VERY lucky to even see any sloppy snow. What an "event" hahaha

Sorry! I really hope it changes for you!!!

[GHweatherChris]

This happened in 2008 as well in this time range, and then bam!! Back on the table...

 

Not gonna happen this time though!

[Esquimalt]

This happened in 2008 as well in this time range, and then bam!! Back on the table...

 

Not gonna happen this time though!

How so sure? All the teleconnections look great for the next couple of weeks

[Requiem]

Not funny. You were in pure panic life support over a wind storm.

 

Which we barely get anymore. I want snow too, but at least you got a decent amount last year and the year before, we haven't had a major south windstorm since 12/14/06. Plus, my laughing was in pure desperation over this event basically falling apart as we speak.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ICON is a little west of its 18Z run but about the same as its 12Z run on Sunday afternoon.

[wxmet]

Uh... Am I looking at the right model suite? How is this "going down the coast"?

 

It literally pulls north and by it I mean the low center, not the bands.

The low is getting captured by the 500mb low to it’s west as part of the occlusion process. Eventually, it rotate around and back down as it weakens due to unfavorable upper level temps to maintain its low pressure.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know if I can do this tonight... I want to pull my hair out over the mood in here.

 

We have some people extrapolating using the most sh*tty run as a basis for absolutely no reason, we have other people calling winter cancel while we are staring down a prolonged cold period, and we have others who think it's comedic to join in on the pissing parade with trying-to-be-witty-but-ultimately-just-faintly-veiled sarcastic comments.

 

Might be watching the models from the sidelines tonight.

I am just saying the 00Z NAM and 18Z GFS were virtually identical for Sunday and Sunday night. That is why I am using that run.

 

00Z GFS might be totally different.

[Perturbed Member]

Feel like people are overreacting a bit tonight.

 

We really can't deny the westward trend, it is unmistakable at this point and has maintained through several runs across multiple models. This wasn't a big snow maker to begin with but by shifting the trough that far west we end up neither all that cold or snowy. It is quickly turning into just a ho hum below average cool airmass. I think the fear over the recent runs is justified and not an overreaction. 

 

That being said it isn't over until the euro waves the white flag. 

[Esquimalt]

I don't know if I can do this tonight... I want to pull my hair out over the mood in here.

 

We have some people extrapolating using the most sh*tty run as a basis for absolutely no reason, we have other people calling winter cancel while we are staring down a prolonged cold period, and we have others who think it's comedic to join in on the pissing parade with trying-to-be-witty-but-ultimately-just-faintly-veiled sarcastic comments.

 

Might be watching the models from the sidelines tonight.

Amen to that

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Which we barely get anymore. I want snow too, but at least you got a decent amount last year and the year before, we haven't had a major south windstorm since 12/14/06. Plus, my laughing was in pure desperation over this event basically falling apart as we speak.

Way to far off still to call it as falling apart. This pattern is evolving and will have surprises. Sit back and watch. It can come back in the models just as fast as it faded.

[GHweatherChris]

I don't know if I can do this tonight... I want to pull my hair out over the mood in here.

 

We have some people extrapolating using the most sh*tty run as a basis for absolutely no reason, we have other people calling winter cancel while we are staring down a prolonged cold period, and we have others who think it's comedic to join in on the pissing parade with trying-to-be-witty-but-ultimately-just-faintly-veiled sarcastic comments.

 

Might be watching the models from the sidelines tonight.

I use sarcasm to hide stress and anger, sowwy...

[Gradient Keeper]

The low is getting captured by the 500mb low to it’s as part of the occlusion process. Eventually, it rotate around and back down as it weakens due to unfavorable upper level temps to maintain its low pressure.

Yeah, we need a sharper trough S-N oriented axis and stronger Yukon jet punching down into BC to drive it southward instead of stalling near central BC.

 

00z GFS in 2 minutes

[MikeInEverett]

ICON still looks good

[TT-SEA]

00Z ICON is basically identical to its 12Z run.

[Perturbed Member]

ICON is a bit west too but it still looks quite good.

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I use sarcasm to hide stress and anger, sowwy...

I use a AR15.

[GHweatherChris]

Today's weather pattern is actually a part of the evolution of the upcoming pattern, maybe today's weather is the reason for the bad trends hmmmm.....

[Gradient Keeper]

ICON is snowy! You *******, Hasselhoff!

[Jesse]

Today's weather pattern is actually a part of the evolution of the upcoming pattern, maybe today's weather is the reason for the bad trends hmmmm.....

Today’s weather was super gross for many areas, so would be fitting.

[Requiem]

Like... WTF is this? At first I think, hm, he must be joking. But then it really doesn't sound like it. Calling an event "over" while we are still 70+ hours out and then saying this is "our last chance" while numerous models and their corresponding ensembles have shown at least a week-long cold spell with some models, specifically the ever-reliable Euro, showing multiple chances at snow.

 

I just... I can't. Whether it's being sarcastic cause Dewey makes it look cool or you are actually this much of a weenie it's annoying either way. Not singling you out, but this is exhibit A.

 

Guess I'm just silly. Belittle me if you want, I guess, don't know what else to say. I just use the weather to escape the mundane aspects of life I could do without. Call me an idiot if you want, but that's how it goes, I guess.

 

Also, you do you. No need to get annoyed by all the complaining. I don't really care about the "wow, this guy loves wind too much" jabs anymore, and even if I did I doubt anyone would stop.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON looks pretty solid still.

[GHweatherChris]

ICON is snowy! You *******, Hasselhoff!

That's Lt. Mitch Buchannon to you sir!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1995 was a pretty quick-hitter. 2.5 days of winter and that was it.

 

This might turn out more like Feb 1990. Or Feb 2018.

Yeah, it's just that the time period being shown on the maps was February 10-15 which coincides well with 1995. Also it was an El Nino year.

 

Another thing that I noticed was that there were February Arctic Blast in 1993 and 1995, which were very close together. February 1990 had one but if I'm not mistaken didn't 1988 or 1989 have one as well? We just had one last year so another one this year would fit the same type of pattern. I'm shooting at my hip here but it's something that I noticed.

[GHweatherChris]

Guess I'm just silly. Belittle me if you want, I guess, don't know what else to say. I just use the weather to escape the mundane aspects of life I could do without. Call me an idiot if you want, but that's how it goes, I guess.

 

Also, you do you. No need to get annoyed by all the complaining. I don't really care about the "wow, this guy loves wind too much" jabs anymore, and even if I did I doubt anyone would stop.

You are too young to be this angsty about life or anything else really.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today’s weather was super gross for many areas, so would be fitting.

 

Thought it was an absolutely beautiful day. 

[TT-SEA]

ICON looks pretty solid still.

Maybe those Europeans just have it right!

[TT-SEA]

Thought it was an absolutely beautiful day.

He is trolling.

[MikeInEverett]

GFS is running!!

[Gradient Keeper]

That's Lt. Mitch Buchannon to you sir!!

Haha, yes I suppose it is.

 

[Guest Sounder]

Remember everyone, I know the 18z GFS was just about the worst thing that's ever happened in most of our entire lives, but don't give up fighting. National Suicide Prevention Hotline: 1-800-273-8255

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Maybe those Europeans just have it right!

Maybe. They sure as hell don't have 80% of the cars they build right!!