January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jbolin]

Three week arctic blasts and brand new Pontiac G-6 Sedans for everyone!!!!

More like 6000-SUX

[Jesse]

More like 6000-SUX

 

More like a Nissan ********.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OMG check out the 12z CFS today! SCOREEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z wasn't bad. 

[Deweydog]

OMG check out the 12z CFS today! SCOREEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Nice!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

OMG check out the 12z CFS today! SCOREEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

#Hr384XXX

[Jesse]

OMG check out the 12z CFS today! SCOREEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

Looking cold in Oklahoma looking cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles aren't great yet...But they have improved SLIGHTLY.

[Deweydog]

Ensembles aren't great yet...But they have improved SLIGHTLY.

Nice!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking cold in Oklahoma looking cold.

 

Already packing my long johns. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 not on board.

[Deweydog]

FV-3 not on board.

Nice!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Feels a lot like Dec 2017 hoping for retrogrogression that didn’t come.

 

Pls be different

 

Probably not. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Probably not.

Inside day 8 rug-pull.

[Farmboy]

I've actually got a good feeling about this one 4 u guys. This looks like the best shot of delivering goods for this winter in the PNW. I hope it works out. The runs tonight/tomorrow will be telling...

[Timmy]

36-28 spread here today, feels like winter

[Phil]

FV-3 not on board.

The FV-3 has not been particularly impressive in the long range, to put it lightly. It doesn’t look as much like a state dependent bias. Rather my hunch is that it’s some of the cloud-related parameterizations and other core physics components of the GFS system that are responsible for the more rapid degradation in skill.

[TT-SEA]

he is smart and covered all his bases then.  if he is wrong, he can say it was a publicity stunt, if he is right then he gets to claim victory. win/win.

 

If I am wrong... then I am wrong and I blew it.   No excuses.   

 

I strongly believe its coming in the Feb 1-5 period.    I made a prediction about 3 weeks out.   Big fuckking deal.    I would like to be right in my prediction.   Nature will decide... not me.  

 

I have been dealing with a 102-degree fever since yesterday and don't have the energy right now to deal with people looking for some sinister motive for a making a simple prediction on a weather forum.     

 

I saw Bryant was also engaging in a sham publicity stunt with his prediction of late January.   So evil and sinister.     <_>

[Phil]

Speaking of state dependent model biases, IMO the CMC/GEPS should be avoided for the next 7-10 days, given the well documented struggles with projecting higher frequency interaseasonal forcing beyond the Maritime Continent/Dateline.

 

It will be more evident this time given the boundary conditions (equatorward AAM deposition, z-cell retraction) will oppose the natural biases of this model.

[Front Ranger]

I firmly believe its coming.

 

It's always dangerous to be dogmatic about this type of thing. Because there are no certainties, or anything close.

 

Same applies to Justin, of course.

[Timmy]

If I am wrong... then I am wrong and I blew it. No excuses.

 

I strongly believe its coming in the Feb 1-5 period. I made a prediction about 3 weeks out. Big fuckking deal. I would like to be right in my prediction. Nature will decide... not me.

 

I have been dealing with a 102-degree fever since yesterday and don't have the energy right now to deal with people looking for some sinister motive for a making a simple prediction on a weather forum.

 

I saw Bryant was also engaging in a sham publicity stunt with his prediction of late January. So evil and sinister. <_>

I’m not saying you are doing it as a stunt, I hope you are right!

[TT-SEA]

It's always dangerous to be dogmatic about this type of thing. Because there are no certainties, or anything close.

 

Same applies to Justin, of course.

Of course.

 

But I am just going all in and we will see what happens. Go big or go home.

[Front Ranger]

The FV-3 has not been particularly impressive in the long range, to put it lightly. It doesn’t look as much like a state dependent bias. Rather my hunch is that it’s some of the cloud-related parameterizations and other core physics components of the GFS system that are responsible for the more rapid degradation in skill.

 

Well, as the stats I posted yesterday showed, it's actually been a bit better then the GFS for day 10. At least for the past few weeks. But a bit worse for day 8, so inconclusive. Of course, if we're talking beyond that, all models are . 

 

I guess we'll see how it handles SSW madness!

[Front Ranger]

Of course.

 

But I am just going all in and we will see what happens. Go big or go home.

 

Then you might as well go with "Feb 1989 redux, only more snow".

[Phil]

Well, as the stats I posted yesterday showed, it's actually been a bit better then the GFS for day 10. At least for the past few weeks. But a bit worse for day 8, so inconclusive. Of course, if we're talking beyond that, all models are s**t.

 

I guess we'll see how it handles SSW madness!

Is it a statistically significant improvement, though?

 

Difficult (if not impossible) to draw conclusions from a couple hundredths of a percentile over a period of just a few months.

[Gradient Keeper]

75% chance the ridge/block holds over us

24% chance the block retrogrades, arctic blast January 29th

1% chance I'm crazy

 

00z GFS in 2 hours 25 minutes!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

How often do you see this type of progression on an ensemble mean from D10 to D15?

 

Justin must be sweating bullets.

 

Not very often. The cold anomalies get colder further out. I've seen Joe Bastardi reference this as a horseshoe ridging pattern locking in the cold air. This is the real deal!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Night shift def in order tonight, yeah Rob?

I'll be up for it tonight and this time there is no way I'm falling asleep!

[Jesse]

I’m not saying you are doing it as a stunt, I hope you are right!

 

I like snow too! But not sure where the sinister/evil part came from. Publicity stunts aren't evil by definition.

[Gradient Keeper]

OMG check out the 12z CFS today! SCOREEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Holy pancakes ! This is BEFORE Day 31. Our odds just increased by 1.3% fellas and ladies!

 

00z ECMWF in 4 hours 40 minutes

[Phil]

I'll be up for it tonight and this time there is no way I'm falling asleep!

I have a hard time sleeping when mammoth patterns like this show up, so I’ll probably be awake too, lol.

[Phil]

That 18z GFS run was just stupid.

 

Blizzard in New Orleans at Dewey’s favorite hour.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

So much cold.

 

Half of the country maxes out the color bar.

 

Snow/ice down to the US-Mexico border and the Gulf Coast on this run crazy.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

There’s so much cold dislodged on this run, that even with a less than stellar regime of upper level mass displacement/retrogression, it has no choice but to flood into BC and the interior PNW due to its sheer magnitude..those are insane MSLP anomalies.

Yeah that's an excellent point. Can't wait to see how all of this comes together the rest of the Winter!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I've actually got a good feeling about this one 4 u guys. This looks like the best shot of delivering goods for this winter in the PNW. I hope it works out. The runs tonight/tomorrow will be telling...

Thanks Farmboy!

[Deweydog]

I’ve already sent a mass email to family, friends, enemies, previous sexual partners, my old dentist, Macklemore, Cliff Avril, Comcast, Steve Pierce, Stormchaser Chuck and Pauly Shore about the upcoming Arctic freight train.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

If I am wrong... then I am wrong and I blew it. No excuses.

 

I strongly believe its coming in the Feb 1-5 period. I made a prediction about 3 weeks out. Big fuckking deal. I would like to be right in my prediction. Nature will decide... not me.

 

I have been dealing with a 102-degree fever since yesterday and don't have the energy right now to deal with people looking for some sinister motive for a making a simple prediction on a weather forum.

 

I saw Bryant was also engaging in a sham publicity stunt with his prediction of late January. So evil and sinister. <_>

Get well soon.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I have a hard time sleeping when mammoth patterns like this show up, so I’ll probably be awake too, lol.

I'm going to go to Dutch Bros Coffee tonight and load up just to make sure haha.

[Phil]

The wait between the 18z GFS and the beginning of the 00z suite is brutal. And our weekend storm/flash freeze isn’t in the range of the 18z Euro yet, so I’m just as antsy as you guys are, lol.