January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

What the heck? Toss this run. That solution over the western Arctic/NW-Pacific makes no sense whatsoever.

[Requiem]

Ugh, obviously something happened.

[Phil]

Ugh, obviously something happened.

Nothing you guys need to worry about.

 

Just something way upstream over far eastern Siberia that looks fishy to me. I think it could affect the Indo-China convection which may have consequences later on.

[Deweydog]

What the heck? Toss this run. That solution over the western Arctic/NW-Pacific makes no sense whatsoever.

I new this at 48 hours.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nothing you guys need to worry about.

 

Just something over in Siberia that looks fishy to me.

Their fish are so hardy they can swim in vodka.

[Bryant]

Ugh, obviously something happened.

Ugh, the long range didn't turn out exactly how I wanted it 10+ days out, obviously something happened.

[Requiem]

[Phil]

Sorry guys, I was just thinking out loud.

 

I don’t even know how it will affect the run, or if my interpretation is correct to begin with. But it’s an important area for wave activity..and it stuck out enough to cause me to fail at a 2 day extrapolation. So, lol.

[Requiem]

Ugh, the long range didn't turn out exactly how I wanted it 10+ days out, obviously something happened.

Extra snarky today, are we?

 

I was referring to something Phil said about something not making sense this run. As it happens, it apparently has nothing to do with the weather here.

[Phil]

Extra snarky today, are we?

 

I was referring to something Phil said about something not making sense this run. As it happens, it apparently has nothing to do with the weather here.

I’m not even sure now. All I know is I failed at a 2-day wavetrain extrapolation, and I can’t remember the last time that happened. It’s a very bizarre progression but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong, I guess.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We will rise.

[Deweydog]

Heights will rise!

[Phil]

Retrogression finally completes @ h360 for a full-on blast.

 

 

[GHweatherChris]

372 hour map, timing still not moving up... uugghh

[Deweydog]

384 plz...

[Timmy]

im heading to Tim's with my pitchfork, who is with me?!?!?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Retrogression finally completes @ h360 for a full-on blast.

 

 

What a Block!

[Perturbed Member]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011600/384/500h_anom.na.png

[Phil]

384 plz...

I thought you’d never ask.

 

 

Edit: D*mmit. Ninja’d.

[Deweydog]

im heading to Tim's with my pitchfork, who is with me?!?!?

Bryant already spiked his NyQuil with arsenic. Don’t waste the energy and risk capture/incarceration/prison sex.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We will rise.

 

TOLD YOU *******!

 

[Timmy]

if only the gfs went out 392 hours...

[Deweydog]

We’d be better off with a big trough in AK. Next...

[Timmy]

Bryant already spiked his NyQuil with arsenic. Don’t waste the energy and risk capture/incarceration/prison sex.

Im committed already... I'll need a GOOD lawyer if you know of one.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011600/384/500h_anom.na.png

I thought you’d never ask.

 

 

Edit: D*mmit. Ninja’d.

TOLD YOU *******!

 

You know things are getting serious when you need 3 different websites showing the same thing!

[Perturbed Member]

I haven't been following previous runs on this as closely but it will be interesting to see if GFS ensembles start to hint at some kind of confidence in this solution. With the CFS, ECMWF, EPS and GFS showing the ridge setting up nicely much closer to the believable range gives me some realistic hope in this working out. Hopefully the FV3 gets on board soon.

[Deweydog]

Im committed already... I'll need a GOOD lawyer if you know of one.

No one comes to mind. Sorry.

[Front Ranger]

Is it a statistically significant improvement, though?

 

Difficult (if not impossible) to draw conclusions from a couple hundredths of a percentile over a period of just a few months.

 

Probably not. But there's no evidence that the FV3 is worse than the GFS, at least that I've seen.

[Deweydog]

Still not a peep out of the NWS. I know there’s a shut down but this is downright criminally negligent.

[Esquimalt]

Still not a peep out of the NWS. I know there’s a shut down but this is downright criminally negligent.

Maybe it’s better off that way. Don’t they curse the events anyways?

[Front Ranger]

Weren't those scores specifically for how the models handled the +/-PNA 500mb heights? 

 

If so, they might not hold true when predicting the overall pattern outside of the PNA zone.

 

I checked. For the northern hemisphere overall, the FV3 has higher verification scores than GFS at both the day 8 and day 10 range.

 

But the Euro is easily better than both...the FV3 is still quite a bit closer to the GFS.

[Timmy]

Maybe it’s better off that way. Don’t they curse the events anyways?

they don't really mention anything past 7 days.

[Front Ranger]

What the heck? Toss this run. That solution over the western Arctic/NW-Pacific makes no sense whatsoever.

 

 

Retrogression finally completes @ h360 for a full-on blast.

 

 

 

   

[luvssnow_spokane]

Getting away from all these fantasy land model runs to share cooler weather in the nearer term.

 

[Front Ranger]

CMC starts the retrograde process by days 9-10. Looks like the FV3 might as well.

[Phil]

Probably not. But there's no evidence that the FV3 is worse than the GFS, at least that I've seen.

That would be a difficult feat to achieve.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Looks like the ensemble mean starts it sooner than the operational.

[MossMan]

CMC starts the retrograde process by days 9-10. Looks like the FV3 might as well.

Yeah but is the JAMA on board?

[Phil]

I don’t trust the CMC or its ensembles at all right now. Not until the MJO reaches the IPWP (in ~ 1 week) will it lose the bias to project large scale subsidence east of the dateline.

[MossMan]

Looks like the ensemble mean starts it sooner than the operational.

Could you post the Seattle link so I could bookmark