February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Feb 2017 wasn't THAT big of a deal here.  I think you're underestimating this.

 

Over 17" of snow here in multiple events that month, something like 4 feet in the Fraser Valley. Even parts of Seattle pulled off a foot of snow with that storm that rolled through on the 5th. However, I don't think the Fraser outflow ever made it down there, so perhaps not as good in terms of cold down there.

 

This event has a long way to go to even be comparable to Feb 2017 in northern areas.

[Deweydog]

And little of this with little or no outflow thru the Gorge? Any cold pool in the basin later that could be drawn down? I see hints but nothing encouraging. Any of those lows moving south of the Columbia should provide some outflow if the low tracks right. That would be a big player but not sure I see that happening. If it were deep enough it could reinforce lower mid level temps perhaps? An extra degree or two of cooling could mean everything at lower elevations here.

Gradients go weakly offshore tomorrow as the low sinks south. A cold pool isn’t really in the cards as there isn’t a whole lot of surface high pressure with a pattern like this coupled with an aging winter.

[snow_wizard]

And little of this with little or no outflow thru the Gorge?  Any cold pool in the basin later that could be drawn down?  I see hints but nothing encouraging.  Any of those lows moving south of the Columbia should provide some outflow if the low tracks right.  That would be a big player but not sure I see that happening.  If it were deep enough it could reinforce lower mid level temps perhaps?  An extra degree or two of cooling could mean everything at lower elevations here.

 

This setup has been so rare the past 30 or so years that you haven't see the magic it can work.  Some of the surface lows will track perfectly for you to score and some will track better for Seattle.  Obviously Seattle has a bit of an advantage in this context, but you can do well down there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The period of January 2017 that really underachieved was the first week of the month. Great upper level set up. Just no real cold to work with. Still got very cold, but it could have been better. 

[Meatyorologist]

Here's that blog for those of you down in Portland and co:

 

https://www.kptv.com/weather/blog/

[snow_wizard]

Can you see how many eps members show major (8+ inch) accumulations fore Victoria?

 

 

I don't have access to that unfortunately. 

[TT-SEA]

Precip type is pretty much all snow on the radar already.

Only 5 hours or so and its showtime for us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Over 17" of snow here in multiple events that month, something like 4 feet in the Fraser Valley. Even parts of Seattle pulled off a foot of snow with that storm that rolled through on the 5th. However, I don't think the Fraser outflow ever made it down there, so perhaps not as good in terms of cold down there.

 

This event has a long way to go to even be comparable to Feb 2017 in northern areas.

 

February 2017 was pretty good here for snow fall. We had 2.5" with the Super Bowl Sunday storm (After about 3" of rain fell during the day.). And then piled up quite a bit of snow late in the month with cold onshore flow. Incredibly wet month with about 16-17" of rain, but also 13.5" of snow. 

[Geos]

Snowing pretty good now in South Everett now. 34°

[Esquimalt]

Looking nice up at Rathtrevor Beach. Still 33F here with the odd flake mixed in but this is under W/SW flow. The outflow seems to be stalled at Ferndale; without support from the outflow this area is probably screwed in terms of getting precipitation today. Cold onshore flow tends to kill showers here, although it might be better for the CZ.

 

http://webcam.beachacresresort.com/webcam/current.jpg

I’m hoping for the the sw to subside a bit and have the northeast develop a bit to get some convergence going

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like the snow falling up island has been of the dry powdery variety, not a lot is sticking to the trees.

 

http://images.drivebc.ca/bchighwaycam/pub/cameras/348.jpg

[snow_wizard]

Grauple now. Water on windshields are freezing too.

 

 

Nice.  You can clearly see it marching southward on the radar too.

[bainbridgekid]

Light ice pellet shower just started here on the very Southern edge of the CZ.

 

Let the games begin!

[snow_wizard]

Over 17" of snow here in multiple events that month, something like 4 feet in the Fraser Valley. Even parts of Seattle pulled off a foot of snow with that storm that rolled through on the 5th. However, I don't think the Fraser outflow ever made it down there, so perhaps not as good in terms of cold down there.

 

This event has a long way to go to even be comparable to Feb 2017 in northern areas.

 

That was January I believe.

 

EDIT.  It was February, but the month on the whole wasn't all that cold at least down here.  I think this is a bigger deal overall.

[MikeInEverett]

C’mon just slide south about 5 more miles!!

[Deweydog]

The period of January 2017 that really underachieved was the first week of the month. Great upper level set up. Just no real cold to work with. Still got very cold, but it could have been better.

It was overmodeled more than it underachieved.

[seattleweatherguy]

Still 5 hours to reach bothell?

[The Swamp]

Those guys also read the forum and pass around some of the interesting posts around the office. I wouldnt say that they are late to the party as they are just conservative and with all of the variables, it probably pays off waiting until day of, especially when the outcome of 2-4" of snow doesnt exactly provide a region wide impact to day-to-day activities.

 

The area from Bellingham to Vancouver has such a varied topography it is difficult to forecast what will happen in everyones back yard.

 

People may die because they haven't issued a warning yet.  There is a lot going on today with drinking and partying due to the Super Bowl. 

 

Could be a crazy evening.

[seattleweatherguy]

I'm wow at 41

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Then there is this...

 

[bainbridgekid]

C’mon just slide south about 5 more miles!!

The Western half of the CZ is moving North while the Eastern half moves South. Almost a rotation signature. I like the look of the radar right now.

[Deweydog]

Frontogenesis!!!

 

Not to be confused with a Frodogenesis where Elijah Wood drapes himself over you for several hours.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I’m hoping for the the sw to subside a bit and have the northeast develop a bit to get some convergence going

 

That's the key, it doesn't matter how cold the onshore flow is, as long as the low level winds are from the SW it will lead to divergence and break apart the showers before they get here. The sooner the outflow hits the better because we're losing our window.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The EPS is colder and more favorable for the late week event than the 0z.

The trend is our friend!

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  28 on the west coast of Vancouver Island.  Incredible for air that has traveled over the ocean.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is the same as the 00Z run. Insane cold permanently parked over western North America. Does not budge.

[Geos]

Looking in Geos direction.

[snow_wizard]

Currently 14 in Hope and 27 in Ferndale.  This is it!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z EPS is 100% on board for the next event late in the week.

 

Anyone doubting it should not be.

 

All aboard the snowtrain before it leaves!

 

http://thefunniestpictures.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/funny-train-protest-winter-dutch.jpg

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Then there is this...

 

Awesome! Looks like a nice healthy deformation band.

[Winterdog]

Snowing here now, ground is white 32F.

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see snow over the ocean.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/wa/tacoma/lgx

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Looks a little snowy on I-5 up near Arlington. Nice to see accumulation so quickly.

 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

18z 3km NAM shows the North Sound convergence moving east into the mountains around 2PM.

 

Another inch or two falling until then.

 

[HighlandExperience]

Currently 14 in Hope and 27 in Ferndale. This is it!

When you think it will snow over King County?

[seattleweatherguy]

18z 3km NAM shows the North Sound convergence moving east into the mountains around 2PM.

Bummer ...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS looks great again as Tim said. 

 

My snow forecast has not changed for down here. 

 

Willamette Valley/PDX Metro. T-1" overnight, up to 2" in the West Hills of PDX or South Salem Hills. 

 

Tomorrow night 0-1" depending on the deformation band. I don't expect any accumulating snow down here tomorrow during daytime hours below 1000'. 

 

For my area I am still going with 2-4" tonight. 

[bainbridgekid]

Groupel picking up here.

 

Not really showing any signs of melting even on the pavement.

[FroYoBro]

39 at Astoria. 46 at PDX. 

[TT-SEA]

Bummer ...

Our snow will be coming from the south.