February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim i was comparing to when it reached Bellingham.

[TT-SEA]

Tim i was comparing to when it reached Bellingham.

OK

[joaqweri]

00z ICON goes out 60hrs so far, but at hr60 which is 4am friday it has snow already arriving in seattle.

[Esquimalt]

00z ICON goes out 60hrs so far, but at hr60 which is 4am friday it has snow already arriving in seattle.

On the ICON precip map showing up as a rain snow mix. But with northerly flow aloft I have no doubt it will all come down as snow in the vast majority of places/

[Esquimalt]

ICON showing a marginal situation for Seattle but an essentially perfectly tracking system for southern VI. Hoping for the best for everyone on this one

[joaqweri]

low is farther from the coast with the icon so far

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Very strange run with the way thst low backs up.

[Jbolin]

low is farther from the coast with the icon so far

It's a dwarf, toss it 

[crf450ish]

Ahh bummer! BUT good to it sounds like... Bittersweet

Well, quite frankly....when you spend more time lamenting the snow vs enjoying it, your perspective tends to change. Believe me, when we first moved here, we were fresh and ready for it. When it snowed, it didn't stop, and our kids and us loved it. Then it just kept snowing. And then I had to snow rake the roof. And then plow driveway...like nearly every day in the winter of 16'-17'.... And 17'-18'. It gets old fast. Kind of like a nice sweet brand car that's fast and turns heads. Then it's gets a few miles on it and begins to nickel and dime you. And then, slowly, over time, your attitude towards the flashy new car isn't as attractive anymore. Only then, do you begin to realize that the mediocre used cars you've owned your whole life actually meets your needs and that the difference between a novelty item and one that fits your needs is Paramount....

 

 

Edit: I am in no way backpedaling on my (our) move to where we live from western wa. However, with what was said above, it's worth mentioning that the only climate left to test our "adaptability" is the polar opposite of what we've become accustomed to in recent years. If Phoenix doesn't cut the mustard (highly doubtful, Because the wife loooooves the heat...) Then our only option then is to merely move back to our miserable, boring Homeland.

[Esquimalt]

Very strange run with the way thst low backs up.

High pressure pushing in from the interior of BC?

[TT-SEA]

ICON is WAY faster than all the models.   Its also warmer than its 12Z run.   

 

That is rain maybe even here during the day.    Have to wait and see if GFS follows.   ECMWF was much slower and colder.

[joaqweri]

High pressure pushing in from the interior of BC?

pressure gradient doesn't look very intense, can't make out a high

[Weiner Warrior]

Definitely going to rain.

[joaqweri]

Definitely going to rain.

nice try, don't come in here depressing snow fans

[Requiem]

ICON was a weird run. Anyways, it's just the ICON, it isn't the greatest model so far out anyways.

[Requiem]

Can't bear to watch the GFS, but my fingers are crossed.

[Jbolin]

Can't bear to watch the GFS, but my fingers are crossed.

Then don't, read some murder books or something you aspiring forensic psychologist

[crf450ish]

Will be nice to have someone in AZ for the forums. You'll get some pretty intense thunderstorms, haboobs, and if you're up for a couple hour drive to the north, some of the best snowfall in the west.

I would be honored to report on such phenomenal weather. Weather is weather. No matter what ones preference is, exciting weather always turns heads.

[Esquimalt]

pressure gradient doesn't look very intense, can't make out a high

Usually you would expect the low to keep going east and disintegrate as it hit the cascades but thats not what happened on that run which is what makes it so good for Victoria and Shawnigan Lake.

[joaqweri]

looking a bit more at this morning's euro, YWL-BLI pressure gradient seems pretty D**n wild. roughly 30mb.

[Cloud]

Arlington already down to 16. Geez

[joaqweri]

00z ICON snowmap is meh, 3-4" for both SEA and PDX (not to say that's a letdown, just excited by the 6-12" from the euro and gfs this morning)

[TT-SEA]

Can't bear to watch the GFS, but my fingers are crossed.

 

 

I can tell at hour 6 that its going to be incredible!   

[Esquimalt]

Jay Albrecht must be reading the forums because he's started posting weather nerd maps just after we started talking about them!

[joaqweri]

alright boys, 00z gfs is rolling

[bainbridgekid]

00z ICON snowmap is meh, 3-4" for both SEA and PDX (not to say that's a letdown, just excited by the 6-12" from the euro and gfs this morning)

For some reason, the ICON snow map is always underdone compared to what the model itself actually shows. Yesterday it had a run that showed no more than about 4-5" anywhere despite showing an inch of QPF all falling as snow.

 

That said, this run did show Seattle having shadowing issues and showed a good amount of the moisture falling as rain over the Sound. 

 

It's all largely a moot point though as it isn't a particularly accurate model.

[joaqweri]

Jay Albrecht must be reading the forums because he's started posting weather nerd maps just after we started talking about them!

just noticed those snowmaps were from weathernerds lol

[Esquimalt]

For some reason, the ICON snow map is always underdone compared to what the model itself actually shows. Yesterday it had a run that showed no more than about 4-5" anywhere despite showing an inch of QPF all falling as snow.

 

That said, this run did show Seattle having shadowing issues and showed a good amount of the moisture falling as rain over the Sound. 

 

It's all largely a moot point though as it isn't a particularly accurate model.

Yes I made this comment the other day. What would be shown on an icon precipitation map as 4 inches imo would actually be closer to 6 or 8 inches (assuming 10 to 1 ratios, of course).

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jay always has great afd discussions.

[joaqweri]

https://twitter.com/AlbrechtJay/status/1092990237171638272?s=20

[Esquimalt]

More moisture on the 00Z than the 18Z so far

[Kayla]

This. Is. Cra Cra.

[Jesse]

Jaya.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00z ICON snowmap is meh, 3-4" for both SEA and PDX (not to say that's a letdown, just excited by the 6-12" from the euro and gfs this morning)

 

I might be wrong but that ECMWF map was over a full 10 day period. The ICON doesn't go out that far so it won't pick up later week stuff. I don't think the ECMWF was very impressive with the Friday - Saturday snowfall anywhere in the region.

[seattleweatherguy]

More moisture on the 00Z than the 18Z so far

Nice for who?

[Esquimalt]

Nice for who?

Remains to be seen

[DiBiYoSi]

Howdy y’all - been lurking here for several winters - going back to the old platform. Just thought I’d say hi and throw my support behind the upcoming system. I just hope the sun angle doesn’t melt all that snow before it hits the ground

[Westy]

Where is Snow Wizard? Need those positive snow vibes..

[Prairiedog]

That sun angle melted all my snow that fell overnight and most of the foot that fell at Lake Stevens and the foot that fell in Joseph Or.  Tough sun we're dealing with esp at night. 

[Requiem]

I might be wrong but that ECMWF map was over a full 10 day period. The ICON doesn't go out that far so it won't pick up later week stuff. I don't think the ECMWF was very impressive with the Friday - Saturday snowfall anywhere in the region.

 

That ECMWF map showed about 7-10 inches in parts of Seattle, with 3-6 inches in the PDX area.