February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Jesse]

One historic event at a time...

Careful, you are veering into making fun of Tim territory. That’s a no no place.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The Monday/Tuesday system is going to be very difficult to predict.   

 

Much harder than the Friday/Saturday system which is a single storm coming through.

 

If the phasing does not happen on Monday... there could be nothing at all.   If it phases perfectly like the 12Z ECMWF showed then there could be a massive snowstorm.   It literally formed out of nothing right over western WA on Monday on the 12Z ECMWF run.   No other model has shown that perfect balance.    But its also the ECMWF so it carries more weight and might end up leading the way and the other models will catch up.

 

None of the GFS ensemble members show a significant event in this area Monday - Wednesday. Maybe some sort of clipper.

[TT-SEA]

Well... time for bed.   Anything else coming out tonight??  

[Deweydog]

Careful, you are veering into making fun of Tim territory. That’s a no no place.

He posts snow maps. Tim is currently a god.

[TT-SEA]

He posts snow maps. Tim is currently a god.

 

Definitely not.

[joaqweri]

SHUT UP EVERYONE, EURO IS ROLLING

[TT-SEA]

For the Seattle area... a major snowstorm and cold weekend are a given.   Its a no lose situation.   

[Requiem]

NOW-CAST RUNDOWN OF EACH PDX MET (feel free to correct me): This is for Saturday-Monday's event.

 

Rod Hill: 4 inches of snow possible Saturday night into Sunday morning.

 

Steve Pierce: 4-6 inches of sticking snow Saturday into Sunday.

 

Matt Zaffino: 1-4 inches of snow Saturday night.

 

Mark Nelsen: Wait and watch, especially due to east wind influence.

 

Rhonda Shelby: Wait and watch.

 

Bruce Sussman: ?

 

NWS Folks: Wait and watch.

[Jesse]

:-|

 

:-/

[MossMan]

Well... time for bed. Anything else coming out tonight??

[TT-SEA]

No phasing would be dry cold?

 

 

Could be that... or warmer southerly flow.   Depends on which trough dominates.   

[Jesse]

NOW-CAST RUNDOWN OF EACH PDX MET (feel free to correct me): This is for Saturday-Monday's event.

 

Rod Hill: 4 inches of snow possible Saturday night into Sunday morning.

 

Steve Pierce: 4-6 inches of sticking snow Saturday into Sunday.

 

Matt Zaffino: 1-4 inches of snow Saturday night.

 

Mark Nelsen: Wait and watch, especially due to east wind influence.

 

Rhonda Shelby: Wait and watch.

 

Bruce Sussman: ?

 

NWS Folks: Wait and watch.

 

This is the most I have anticipated a blog update from Nelsen in awhile.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Not sure if it's already been mentioned and I'm just late to the party, but the FV3 supports the 12z Euro's Monday/Tuesday system. 

 

From 4PM Monday through 4PM Tuesday...

 

[TT-SEA]

 

[Deweydog]

Definitely not.

At the very least you’re European.

[joaqweri]

Not sure if it's already been mentioned and I'm just late to the party, but the FV3 supports the 12z Euro's Monday/Tuesday system. 

 

From 4PM Monday through 4PM Tuesday...

 

you're fairly late, everyone has seen the 00z FV3 already

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF out through 00 hours.   Already an epic run!  

[Requiem]

This is the most I have anticipated a blog update from Nelsen in awhile.

 

Yeah, no kidding. January 6th, 2017 was the last time I've been this eager for a post.

[Jesse]

Not sure if it's already been mentioned and I'm just late to the party, but the FV3 supports the 12z Euro's Monday/Tuesday system. 

 

From 4PM Monday through 4PM Tuesday...

 

 

Care to extend that map south 75 miles or so? Around the edge of the flat earth and to the underside where Portland is.

[TT-SEA]

you're fairly late, everyone has seen the 00z FV3 already

 

 

I had not seen the totals... more impressive than I thought.  

[joaqweri]

all eyes are on the euro now, just started running

[TT-SEA]

Care to extend that map south 75 miles or so? Around the edge of the flat earth and to the underside where Portland is.

 

Actually laughed out loud on this one.    

[Guest hawkstwelve]

you're fairly late, everyone has seen the 00z FV3 already

 

Hm, odd. Couldn't tell by the mood in here.

[MossMan]

[Blizzard777]

Deep breath

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Care to extend that map south 75 miles or so? Around the edge of the flat earth and to the underside where Portland is.

 

"Come to the underside... We have cookies."

 

[Jesse]

"Come to the underside... We have cookies."

 

 

God d**n it. The Kelso/Longview totals looked so promising.

[TT-SEA]

I am virtually certain the ECMWF is going to be crazy good for Puget Sounders on Friday night and Saturday.   Just a question of how much.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Pretty easy to tell where the snow fell with the last system on today's satellite:

 

[joaqweri]

alright everyone, ima go experience some nostalgia and play cod mw2. i'll be back at like 10:15 or 10:20 when the euro is finally getting to the end of the storm so we can so it's whole picture.

[Jesse]

Heh -

8k unique users today 40/30/20 from SEA/PDX/YVR respectively

all time member counts right now at 346

30+ new accounts in two days

280+ people on line within the past 15 minutes

 

Thats pretty cool.

 

:-)

[TT-SEA]

Pretty easy to tell where the snow fell with the last system on today's satellite:

 

 

 

Love how Lake Washington and Lake Sammamish stand out so well in the snowy landscape.  

[umadbro]

"Come to the underside... We have cookies."

 

Odd....

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Love how Lake Washington and Lake Sammamish stand out so well in the snowy landscape.  

 

Snoqualmie Valley is always so prominent on satellite pics as well. Pretty cool.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Odd....

 

That's total through 4PM Sunday. The map I posted was only from 4PM Monday - 4PM Tuesday.

[jcmcgaffey]

Love how Lake Washington and Lake Sammamish stand out so well in the snowy landscape.

Crazy to think the Puget Sound has already had 3-4 days with snow on the ground which already beats anything since 2012 and most of our typical 1-2 day events.

[Jesse]

Odd....

 

The other map is just for the system early next week.

[umadbro]

That's total through 4PM Sunday. The map I posted was only from 4PM Monday - 4PM Tuesday.

Whoops, didn't catch that. Probably because I'm only focused on this weekend.

[Andrew.]

Next Tuesdays snowstorm coming in strong on the WRF for PDX

 

[MossMan]

Pretty easy to tell where the snow fell with the last system on today's satellite:

 

I am making a run over to Oak Harbor tomorrow morning for work, looks like the drive through deception pass will be interesting, looks very bright white in that area.