February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Jesse]

Starting a new thread tomorrow morning.

Event specific?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He has!   Many times!

 

I thought so. But sometimes I refer to them as livestock. So rather generically. 

[Esquimalt]

 

UKMET 00z heavy snow axis along the Sound:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

How would we do in that situation

[Kayla]

He has!   Many times!

 

How did I miss this?? I love sheep almost as much as Matt likes Turtles!

[Jesse]

FV3 Looking good!

Wow, I could live with that. Thanks for posting this.

 

Will be interested to see how it handles the early week system as opposed to its 18z run.

[TT-SEA]

I thought so. But sometimes I refer to them as livestock. So rather generically. 

 

 

No... you have said sheep many times.  

[Jesse]

GFS is actually a very cold run start to finish.

Yeah, nothing has really changed on that front.

[joaqweri]

00z FV3 has the highest totals of 12-14" pushed over to SW kitsap and west thurston. 8-12" for seattle.

[Phil]

Man, the clown range just gets crazier each run.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

FV3 has been pretty consistent in showing the Kitsap area being the main winner of the Friday/Saturday system. 

 

Almost always shows a foot or more for that area.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

You guys are going to go nuts stressing out over every single mesoscale detail. The great large scale pattern continues for the next two weeks. You will all see plenty of snow at some point within this blocking period.

Well I'm just trying to remain calm and take everything as an everyday situation even though I know there's a lot of things are at stake but my best runs have been when I'm most relaxed.

[TT-SEA]

FV3 Looking good!

 

 

Wow... much better for Portland.

 

Maybe both Portland and Seattle can buried at the same time.   The dream storm!  

[joaqweri]

Man, the clown range just gets crazier each run.

i wouldn't call this clown range in the slightest. this storm is almost 36hrs out now.

 

 

[Jesse]

Well I'm just trying to remain calm and take everything as an everyday situation even though I know there's a lot of things are at stake but my best runs have been when I'm most relaxed.

A diet high in fiber can help with that too.

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

FV3 has been pretty consistent in showing the Kitsap area being the main winner of the Friday/Saturday system. 

 

Almost always shows a foot or more for that area.

 

 

Much more believable out here too... which makes me feel like its got a better handle on the situation compared to the GFS.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Friday evening at weather offices across the region:

 

[joaqweri]

yeah, FV3 looks better with big totals in seattle and portland. win win!

[Perturbed Member]

Interesting to compare the GFS to the WRF. 

 

4 AM Saturday the GFS says it is raining in PDX. The soundings show that the GFS has PDX at 38F. 

 

 

WRF from hours 57-60 (1-4 AM Saturday)

 

 

 

Now if you look at the soundings it is way colder. 

 

 

 

 

Clearly a snow sounding from 1 AM Saturday.

[wxmet]

How would we do in that situation

 

Looks like around 4 inches. Hard to tell because the graphics coming out of the site aren't exactly the best when you want specifics.

[TT-SEA]

Friday evening at weather offices across the region:

 

 

 

Video is way better!   And this fits perfectly.   Also from a time when the Simpsons was actually funny and clever.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMRmuyy9f_w

[Phil]

 

i wouldn't call this clown range in the slightest. this storm is almost 36hrs out now.

 

 

Sorry, to clarify “clown range” is my sarcastic reference to the super long range GFS. Just for fun.

[Requiem]

Interesting to compare the GFS to the WRF. 

 

4 AM Saturday the GFS says it is raining in PDX. The soundings show that the GFS has PDX at 38F. 

 

 

WRF from hours 57-60 (1-4 AM Saturday)

 

 

 

Now if you look at the soundings it is way colder. 

 

 

 

 

Clearly a snow sounding from 1 AM Saturday.

 

Perhaps GFS is underplaying the east wind component?

[Kayla]

You need to repost your January 2017 pics!    I remember it look pretty incredible up here.   

 

I love me a good throwback!

 

http://i67.tinypic.com/jkaq38.jpghttp://i66.tinypic.com/2v7ut0i.jpg

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Lovely color of purple.

 

It's been like that basically ever run since this event has come into the 4k resolution up this way. Promising for sure, then again it is the WRF.

[Requiem]

I love me a good throwback!

 

http://i67.tinypic.com/jkaq38.jpghttp://i66.tinypic.com/2v7ut0i.jpg

 

Miss that one. Probably the most significant weather event I've ever experienced.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensemble mean bottoms at -9.4 at 850mb for PDX.

[Perturbed Member]

Perhaps GFS is underplaying the east wind component?

 

That appears to be the case, the WRF and GFS aren't even close in terms of how much colder the former keeps us.

[Geos]

And finally, totals from 4PM Friday to 4PM Monday. Many places over a foot with Kitsap area nearing or just crossing 2 feet.

 

Catching up on things again. Looks like 20" in north Seattle!

Roads refroze really quickly tonight, still several closed nearby.

[joaqweri]

00z UW is in. 4-5" for seattle, widespread 2-5". highest totals of 10-12" in the SW sound like the FV3.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

A diet high in fiber can help with that too.

Good one, nope I don't have diarrhea.

 

It's a motivational Michael Jordan quote that I use. I changed games to runs.

[Esquimalt]

Friday evening at weather offices across the region:

 

Really not impressed by the FV3. It went from showing over a foot here to nothing in a few runs

[TT-SEA]

I love me a good throwback!

 

 

 

Awesome!   I remember showing my sons those pics... they were blown away that was in the Portland area.  

[Requiem]

Screenshot (187).png

00z UW is in. 4-5" for seattle, widespread 2-5". highest totals of 10-12" in the SW sound like the FV3.

 

Don't like or really buy that weird hole over Pullayup/Lewis (I think?)

[seattleweatherguy]

Will be interested to see what the euro says tonight

[TT-SEA]

Don't like or really buy that weird hole over Pullayup/Lewis (I think?)

 

There will not be a hole like that... the ECMWF did not show that.    

[MossMan]

There hasn’t been a more anticipated ECMWF run since...

This morning.

[Kayla]

Miss that one. Probably the most significant weather event I've ever experienced.

 

Yeah that one set an extremely high bar. Nearly 20" in about 7 hours at my house. Doubt I'll ever see that again even here in Bozeman.

[joaqweri]

There hasn’t been a more anticipated ECMWF run since...

This morning.

wouldn't be surprised to see 250+ online tmrw night for the last euro run before the storm hits.

[FrozenBites]

There will not be a hole like that... the ECMWF did not show that.

Does the model think it is warm there or a model glitch...I've seen it multiple times over the years...