February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[joaqweri]

00z UW is almost in. out to 52hrs now.

[TT-SEA]

Looking back at the 12Z models... the ICON, GFS, and FV3 were all about the same as the 00Z runs for the Monday/Tuesday system.    

 

The only run this morning that showed a huge snowstorm in that period was the ECMWF.    We will see if it sticks to that solution and drags the rest of the models along eventually.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Are you discouraged tonight by what you’re seeing?

 

Not particularly, but I thought I'd point that out because I feel like there's more bust potential in what's being shown than in a more traditional path to large snowfalls. I'm pretty certain we'll see something this time, unlike last Sunday, but I'm not sure we'll have a good idea where it will end up until it's actually happening.

[Kayla]

And the 00z GFS is still a great run for 95% of the region, from the looks of it.

 

FWIW, I’ve had my share of late-night model riding sessions over the years, and one way to tell when it’s probably gonna be a good one is when you find yourself disappointed in a run that would ordinarily leave you feeling elated. Just saying.

 

And there will always be that one random model run that screws you and leaves you in a sh*tty mood for the next 6-12hrs. It’s nothing to worry about. In 2016 here it was a terrible 12z Euro run (and EPS) that did it.

 

This.

[TT-SEA]

00z UW is almost in. out to 52hrs now.

 

 

WRF goes nuts on Seattle starting around 7 p.m. on Friday.  

 

Its still dry for the Seattle area at 5 p.m. so maybe people will be able to heed the warning and get home and off the freeways.   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Tonight’s Euro run will break the online member record.

[Esquimalt]

Not particularly, but I thought I'd point that out because I feel like there's more bust potential in what's being shown than in a more traditional path to large snowfalls. I'm pretty certain we'll see something this time, unlike last Sunday, but I'm not sure we'll have a good idea where it will end up until it's actually happening.

Do you think EC will issue a winter storm watch tomorrow?

[Requiem]

12 inches or bust is what some members on this forum seem to be thinking.

 

I'd be very happy with 3-5 inches.

[joaqweri]

Tonight’s Euro run will break the online member record.

then it'll be broken again by tomorrow night's euro run. last run before the storm arrives.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

You guys are going to go nuts stressing out over every single mesoscale detail. The great large scale pattern continues for the next two weeks. You will all see plenty of snow at some point within this blocking period.

Take this talk somewhere else. Can't you see we have people distraught about a snowstorm 2/4/8 days out that shows only 4-6 inches on one model run??

 

Where is your decency and compassion?

[seattleweatherguy]

So, check in at 9:45?

I'd check in at 10

[Jesse]

Another very cold trough around day 8 on the 00Z GFS.

[Chewbacca Defense]

I see Bellingham made it to 37 today and most of the snow is gone in town.   I am sure its a different story south of town though.

 

 

The Frazier outflow pretty much blew it all away, and what was left sublimated pretty quickly. My driveway was a sheet of ice with no snow Monday morning (thanks to the wind), and bare and dry Monday night.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Do you think EC will issue a winter storm watch tomorrow?

 

Yep, they're pretty aggressive with their warnings when there's a clear chance for snow.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ha, one of these, now we've seen everything:

 

[bainbridgekid]

00z WRF through 4 AM Saturday. Still snowing over Kitsap at this point.

 

This all falls in 6 hours from 6 PM to Midnight Friday in Seattle.

 

[Kayla]

I'd be very happy with 3-5 inches.

 

Unless SEA gets 12".

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Poor swamp people.... 

 

[Requiem]

Unless SEA gets 12".

 

I mean, SEA's already going to beat us, what's the difference? 3-5 would make me very happy.

[TT-SEA]

The WRF and ECMWF seem to be in agreement now on the 7 p.m - 1 a.m. period on Friday being pretty insane for the Seattle area and really from about Everett to Olympia.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was an incredibly beautiful evening. Enjoying the later sunsets, got to walk the property and snap a few pics.

 

[FrozenBites]

Poor swamp people....

 

I don't buy it. Showed almost identical solution last time to only receive nearly 8 inches.

[Kayla]

Was an incredibly beautiful evening. Enjoying the later sunsets, got to walk the property and snap a few pics.

 

Why haven't you mentioned that you have sheep before!?!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GEM says screws the GFS, dumps on PDX

 

FB_IMG_1549512619801.jpg

What a GEM of a run.

[SouthHillFrosty]

When is the snow suppose to end ish on saturday?

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Why haven't you mentioned that you have sheep before!?!

 

I don't know. . 

 

I have 3.

[SeanNyberg]

FV3 run looking good.  Keeps temps low like their earlier run.

[joaqweri]

00z WRF through 4 AM Saturday. Still snowing over Kitsap at this point.

 

This all falls in 6 hours from 6 PM to Midnight Friday in Seattle.

 

 

 

jesus, that's snowfall rates of up to 1.2" per hour.

[TT-SEA]

Why haven't you mentioned that you have sheep before!?!

 

 

He has!   Many times!

[Kayla]

I mean, SEA's already going to beat us, what's the difference? 3-5 would make me very happy.

 

Speaking from experience, you're going to see plenty of snow up in the West Hills over the next two plus weeks. Probably more than most on this board.

[wxmet]

UKMET 00z heavy snow axis along the Sound:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

When is the snow suppose to end ish on saturday?

 

 

WRF shows it ending for the Seattle area and King County early Saturday morning.   Suspect that is 6 hours too early.    It will probably go until around noon.  

[Requiem]

Speaking from experience, you're going to see plenty of snow up in the West Hills over the next two plus weeks. Probably more than most on this board.

 

Alright, I'll hold out hope.

[TT-SEA]

Speaking from experience, you're going to see plenty of snow up in the West Hills over the next two plus weeks. Probably more than most on this board.

 

 

You need to repost your January 2017 pics!    I remember it look pretty incredible up here.   

[Esquimalt]

FV3 now has next to nothing here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is actually a very cold run start to finish. 

[Kayla]

I don't know. . 

 

I have 3.

 

That's awesome! We'd like to get some goats in the near'ish future. 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

FV3 shows 2-4 inches of snow between 4PM and 10PM Friday for the Central Sound. It also continues to show Kitsap getting nailed after this.

 

[SeanNyberg]

FV3 Looking good!