February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This is still mostly rain in Portland on Monday afternoon... but I think the deformation band might set up nicely there overnight.

 

The NAM had this time period as snow for PDX. The GFS might be underestimating the coldpool. It will.be interesting to see what the WRF shows.

[TT-SEA]

Still a little hanging around in the next frame. 

 

 

I see that... they are usually slow to dissipate.    Probably a decent set up for you.  

[Requiem]

This is a great point that often seems ignored on here. People shriek about "busts" and how whatever model is "out to lunch" with various scenarios, completely losing sight of the fact that most often, a minor shift in the pattern, especially in our climate, can mean massive changes in what we observe in our backyards. The models have actually done a pretty fantastic job at showing the large scale pattern for this event from well in advance. Even if no one in the lowlands sees accumulating snow, it would be far from a bust from what was being shown 8-9 days ago.

 

Yeah, look at an event like 1/10/17, where things come up right out of the blue. Our weather is erratic and hard to predict, and though we usually don't see things deliver fully. you never know with so many influencers (the Gorge, the Fraser, the Pacific Ocean, etc.)

[TT-SEA]

The NAM had this time period as snow for PDX. The GFS might be underestimating the coldpool. It will.be interesting to see what the WRF shows.

 

 

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF was very close to the new 00Z GFS and it showed 37 at PDX at 4 p.m. on Monday.  

[TT-SEA]

This is a great point that often seems ignored on here. People shriek about "busts" and how whatever model is "out to lunch" with various scenarios, completely losing sight of the fact that most often, a minor shift in the pattern, especially in our climate, can mean massive changes in what we observe in our backyards. The models have actually done a pretty fantastic job at showing the large scale pattern for this event from well in advance. Even if no one in the lowlands sees accumulating snow, it would be far from a bust from what was being shown 8-9 days ago.

 

 

Good points.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see that... they are usually slow to dissipate.    Probably a decent set up for you.  

 

Overall one of the better GFS runs for here in a couple days...In that time period at least. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF was very close to the new 00Z GFS and it showed 37 at PDX at 4 p.m. on Monday.  

 

Can't wait to see the EURO. The GFS surface temp maps are pure garbage, so I don't even bother looking at those.

[TT-SEA]

Can't wait to see the EURO. The GFS surface temp maps are pure garbage, so I don't even bother looking at those.

Completely agree.

 

That is why I referenced the ECMWF temp at that time as some sort of cross-reference given that it showed the same placement of the low.

 

The crappy GFS temp output is also why it WAY overestimates snow.

[Meatyorologist]

Love your sense of humor!

better to laugh than cry

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Portland deformation zone action on Monday evening and maybe still going for Andrew early Tuesday morning...

 

 

The cold pool seems to develop a bit better Monday evening.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yeah, look at an event like 1/10/17, where things come up right out of the blue. Our weather is erratic and hard to predict, and though we usually don't see things deliver fully. you never know with so many influencers (the Gorge, the Fraser, the Pacific Ocean, etc.)

The January 10-11 2017 even surprised myself. I went with 7 inches of snow but I was wish casting a bit. What ended up happening was truly remarkable. Everything had to line up perfectly but it did.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF was very close to the new 00Z GFS and it showed 37 at PDX at 4 p.m. on Monday.

I see. The 18z EURO looked snowier and likely colder though, possibly due to snow changing over faster. Will be interesting to see what the 00z EURO shows.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow the ICON is great later next week.

 

The last 24 hours are a snow dump up here.

[TT-SEA]

I see. The 18z EURO looked snowier and likely colder though, possibly due to snow changing over faster. Will be interesting to see what the 00z EURO shows.

Yes... it will be an very intriguing run!

[Perturbed Member]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF was very close to the new 00Z GFS and it showed 37 at PDX at 4 p.m. on Monday.  

 

 

If we really do have offshore flow going and that cold pool in the gorge, I would really take GFS surface temps with a huge grain of salt. They come out quite wrong in those situations.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow! GFS is Outstanding late in the week!

[TT-SEA]

If we really do have offshore flow going and that cold pool in the gorge, I would really take GFS surface temps with a huge grain of salt. They come out quite wrong in those situations.

I think that will definitely come into play on Monday evening... it will take awhile though so I am guessing just rain or rain/snow mix during the day down there.

[BLI snowman]

GFS looking nice with the 2nd load.

[TT-SEA]

Wow! GFS is Outstanding late in the week!

A definite westward shift happening with that already. Not sure what to think of that.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

If we really do have offshore flow going and that cold pool in the gorge, I would really take GFS surface temps with a huge grain of salt. They come out quite wrong in those situations.

The GFS was the worst model for last Winters Christmas Eve event. It kept showing rain even though there was clear offshore flow. All the other models showed snow/ice but the GFS was so stubborn right up to the end.

[BLI snowman]

I think that will definitely come into play on Monday evening... it will take awhile though so I am guessing just rain or rain/snow mix during the day down there.

 

Definitely smells like a rain to snow situation. The basin won't be very cold at the outset and there isn't a ton of upper level support so the offshore flow will need to work its way in.

 

Kinda reminiscent of 1/27/1996 a bit, though.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Well King County gets it's due next Friday if the 00z GFS has anything to say about it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yes... it will be an very intriguing run!

I have a feeling the EURO will show why it's the King tonight!

[BLI snowman]

GFS really hammers the Central Sound on Friday as the boundary stalls.

[Requiem]

Possibilities is the theme of this week! (and maybe the next too).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seattle gets blasted on Friday on the GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overnight lows probably won't be impressive this week, but we could have some really chilly high temps.

[Canadian guy]

I'm sure Snow Wiz will be back here tonight posting!

[Timmy]

Geez the gfs hits me with about a foot of snow Sunday and Monday

[Omegaraptor]

So nothing but low 40s for the first three weeks of Feb from the looks of it.

 

It would be absolutely great for us skiiers if we got any precipitation.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS shows almost 20" for Seattle. LOL

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Wow. Snow from 4PM Thursday to at least 10AM Saturday with near or over a foot falling in most places in the Central Sound.

 

That's crazy.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

We have seen before where the loser in one round becomes a huge winner in the next round.

 

He says this and then the 00z GFS shows that?

 

I would like to submit the 00z GFS as further evidence that Tim controls the weather.

[Requiem]

Wow. Snow from 4PM Thursday to at least 10AM Saturday with near or over a foot falling in most places in the Central Sound.

 

That's crazy.

 

Portland gets an itty, bitty amount at the end. Then again, I'm not at all worrying about snow amounts, just happy that the potential is there for some (finally) exciting weather.

[TT-SEA]

Portland gets an itty, bitty amount at the end. Then again, I'm not at all worrying about snow amounts, just happy that the potential is there for some (finally) exciting weather.

 

 

Details will obviously change wildly... but the potential is huge with the second round.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the overall pattern emerging is the exciting thing. And the multiple opportunities. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The WRF still has Fraser Outflow kicking into gear tomorrow night; this is before Sunday's low has formed. Certainly what we want to see for snow opportunities on Sunday.

 

[Skagit Weather]

Lock it in now...This would also fit with the theme of the past few years of precipitation cutting off just to the south of Skagit County. But actually this would truly be something to witness. 

 

[MossMan]

Wow. Snow from 4PM Thursday to at least 10AM Saturday with near or over a foot falling in most places in the Central Sound.

 

That's crazy.

I’m not telling my wife this time. She caused the system on Sunday into Monday to trend west just to prove she was going to be right.

[Requiem]

Details will obviously change wildly... but the potential is huge with the second round.   

 

Yep. GFS shows snow in seattle, EURO in PDX, it's all going to change but there's some snow. And that's all that matters at this point!