February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[TT-SEA]

00Z NAM looking drier for Sunday and Sunday night for inland areas of western WA... more in agreement with the GFS/WRF/ECMWF/FV3.

[Perturbed Member]

East winds through PDX and precip overhead. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z NAM trending colder!

 

HR 45 00z

 

and 18z

[#10127] You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day

[Gradient Keeper]

Past 5 NAM runs centered at Day 2, 4 PM Sunday. Animated GIF. Watch the gradual eastward movement of the arctic trough and low. Also the block amplitude increasing. Nice trend. Keep that up the next 4 runs and OH YEAH!
https://imgur.com/tmChzBS

[Frontal Snowsquall]

East winds through PDX and precip overhead.

[#10127] You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day

[TT-SEA]

So much for the Portland deformation band on the 00Z NAM... more of a Seattle thing.   

 

 

[GHweatherChris]

[#10127] You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day

What is the deal with these posts?

[MossMan]

Some day we will have a real blast again with big north winds blowing down Puget Sound and a flash freeze in the middle of the day along with a juicy arctic front that dumps a foot of snow in the process.

[Requiem]

So much for the Portland deformation band on the 00Z NAM... more of a Seattle thing.   

 

 

 

Portland gets something too!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 backdoor cold to modified arctic air. Wow MUCH COLDER!

 

 

and 18z

[TT-SEA]

Portland gets something too!

 

Passes through very quickly at mid-day on this run.   

 

Its the NAM though.   The ECMWF has been consistent with it over Portland and even south of there.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What is the deal with these posts?

It won't let me like anymore post because I hit my limit for the day. So it's a way for me to like a post. Others do this as well. I use to just unlike post in previous pages but it takes too much effort.

[The Swamp]

it doesn't even look like an arctic front makes it west of the cascades.  the low wobbles and meanders down the coast and its not wound very tight.  looks like the goodies don't clear customs

[MossMan]

What is the deal with these posts?

[136355] You have reached your quota of negative votes for the day.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Day 3 backdoor cold to modified arctic air. Wow MUCH COLDER!

 

 

and 18z

[#10127] You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day

 

Great to see the NAM picking up on the cold pool!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Portland gets something too!

You mean Seattle?

[Requiem]

You mean Seattle?

 

No, I meant Portland, as he said the deformation band is now a Seattle thing.

[Perturbed Member]

Passes through very quickly at mid-day on this run.   

 

Its the NAM though.   The ECMWF has been consistent with it over Portland and even south of there.  

 

eh, I think models struggle to nail the placement of those bands even when within 48 hrs. Wouldn't be surprised to see it at PDX +/- 50 miles. 

[Gradient Keeper]

WOW Day 3.5 !!!! The low level cold is going to be bitter through the Gorge into PDX! Did I not say earlier that we might just go right into an arctic blast pattern.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

No, I meant Portland, as he said the deformation band is now a Seattle thing.

Yeah, I didn't read the post. Just looked at the maps.

[Guest Sounder]

It won't let me like anymore post because I hit my limit for the day. So it's a way for me to like a post. Others do this as well. I use to just unlike post in previous pages but it takes too much effort.

It's pointless spam that clutters up the board. It doesn't matter if you like a post or not.

[Jesse]

It's pointless spam that clutters up the board. It doesn't matter if you like a post or not.

This.

[GHweatherChris]

It won't let me like anymore post because I hit my limit for the day. So it's a way for me to like a post. Others do this as well. I use to just unlike post in previous pages but it takes too much effort.

Sorry if I sounded annoyed, wasn't my intent, thanks for explaining, was just curious.

[Timmy]

It's pointless spam that clutters up the board. It doesn't matter if you like a post or not.

This^^^

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Sorry if I sounded annoyed, wasn't my intent, thanks for explaining, was just curious.

Okay sounds fair.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

WOW Day 3.5 !!!! The low level cold is going to be bitter through the Gorge into PDX! Did I not say earlier that we might just go right into an arctic blast pattern.

 

 

[#10127] You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day

 

We might not moderate much if at all until the reload comes!

[Jesse]

This^^^

 

[#10127] You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day

[Meatyorologist]

I would like to remind everyone to take a few things into consideration:

 

-Snow maps don't show accumulations. They are somewhat accurate in the sense that they show whether snow reaches the ground or not, but keep in mind that snow maps are under the assumption that every flake sticks, whether its 35F or 28F. They also assume a 10:1 ratio in most cases.

Remember: check your temperatures, time of day, precip intensity, and most importantly, CHECK YOUR DPs!!!

 

-Convective situations are hard to model. Remember that each individual snow or rain shower won't exist exactly how you see them (or at all) on your favorite weather model, even from two hours out.

If you see random inconspicuous snow holes or piles on your map, don't trust them as gospel; think of them in a more broad sense, like "someone will get something, in this general area", and vice versa.

And don't use the GODDAMN GFS AS CONVECTIVE MODEL LIKE OMG

 

-Models, believe it or not, change. For better or for worse.

Don't single out individual models or runs to cherrypick data!

And don't assume that the run you are looking at will be anywhere remotely close to what it will be next, unless it is absolutely obvious there is a trend.

Speaking of trends, learn how to spot the difference between actual trends and wobbling, noise, model physics problems, or day/night biases.

 

Most importantly, THINK CRITICALLY!!

[GHweatherChris]

I would like to remind everyone to take a few things into consideration:

 

-Snow maps don't show accumulations. They are somewhat accurate in the sense that they show whether snow reaches the ground or not, but keep in mind that snow maps are under the assumption that every flake sticks, whether its 35F or 28F. They also assume a 10:1 ratio in most cases.

Remember: check your temperatures, time of day, precip intensity, and most importantly, CHECK YOUR DPs!!!

 

-Convective situations are hard to model. Remember that each individual snow or rain shower won't exist exactly how you see them (or at all) on your favorite weather model, even from two hours out.

If you see random inconspicuous snow holes or piles on your map, don't trust them as gospel; think of them in a more broad sense, like "someone will get something, in this general area", and vice versa.

And don't use the GODDAMN GFS AS CONVECTIVE MODEL LIKE OMG

 

-Models, believe it or not, change. For better or for worse.

Don't single out individual models or runs to cherrypick data!

And don't assume that the run you are looking at will be anywhere remotely close to what it will be next, unless it is absolutely obvious there is a trend.

Speaking of trends, learn how to spot the difference between actual trends and wobbling, noise, model physics problems, or day/night biases.

 

Most importantly, THINK CRITICALLY!!

Hey, sensible and logical thinking is not allowed here, geez!!

[TT-SEA]

I would like to remind everyone to take a few things into consideration:

 

-Snow maps don't show accumulations. They are somewhat accurate in the sense that they show whether snow reaches the ground or not, but keep in mind that snow maps are under the assumption that every flake sticks, whether its 35F or 28F. They also assume a 10:1 ratio in most cases.

Remember: check your temperatures, time of day, precip intensity, and most importantly, CHECK YOUR DPs!!!

 

-Convective situations are hard to model. Remember that each individual snow or rain shower won't exist exactly how you see them (or at all) on your favorite weather model, even from two hours out.

If you see random inconspicuous snow holes or piles on your map, don't trust them as gospel; think of them in a more broad sense, like "someone will get something, in this general area", and vice versa.

And don't use the GODDAMN GFS AS CONVECTIVE MODEL LIKE OMG

 

-Models, believe it or not, change. For better or for worse.

Don't single out individual models or runs to cherrypick data!

And don't assume that the run you are looking at will be anywhere remotely close to what it will be next, unless it is absolutely obvious there is a trend.

Speaking of trends, learn how to spot the difference between actual trends and wobbling, noise, model physics problems, or day/night biases.

 

Most importantly, THINK CRITICALLY!!

 

 

Great post!

 

The part about the snowfall maps is really good information.     

[Deweydog]

This^^^

That.

[Omegaraptor]

Another fact: Seattle gets for more days with rain than Miami, New York, Boston, ect. It falls throughout the year.

Yeah, let me know when an east coast city goes 40 days without a single raindrop.

 

Seattle’s rain does not fall throughout the year, while the east coast’s does. Seattle has a dry season, enough to be considered a “cool Mediterranean” climate in some classification systems.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, let me know when an east coast city goes 40 days without a single raindrop.

 

 

Pseudo-Mediterranean climate.     

[Guest Sounder]

I would like to remind everyone to take a few things into consideration:

 

-Snow maps don't show accumulations. They are somewhat accurate in the sense that they show whether snow reaches the ground or not, but keep in mind that snow maps are under the assumption that every flake sticks, whether its 35F or 28F. They also assume a 10:1 ratio in most cases.

Remember: check your temperatures, time of day, precip intensity, and most importantly, CHECK YOUR DPs!!!

 

-Convective situations are hard to model. Remember that each individual snow or rain shower won't exist exactly how you see them (or at all) on your favorite weather model, even from two hours out.

If you see random inconspicuous snow holes or piles on your map, don't trust them as gospel; think of them in a more broad sense, like "someone will get something, in this general area", and vice versa.

And don't use the GODDAMN GFS AS CONVECTIVE MODEL LIKE OMG

 

-Models, believe it or not, change. For better or for worse.

Don't single out individual models or runs to cherrypick data!

And don't assume that the run you are looking at will be anywhere remotely close to what it will be next, unless it is absolutely obvious there is a trend.

Speaking of trends, learn how to spot the difference between actual trends and wobbling, noise, model physics problems, or day/night biases.

 

Most importantly, THINK CRITICALLY!!

We don't take kindly to reasonable commentary around here, bub.

[TT-SEA]

Snowfall maps probably work much better when cold air is not an issue. Which is likely why the WRF works well for Snowmizer's cabin.

But cold air is usually an issue on this side of the mountains. And it certainly is an issue for this upcoming event since the models have been showing highs above freezing every day. When you see the ECMWF showing 2 inches of snow and a temp in the mid to upper 30s... you can assume that probably does not mean 2 inches of actual accumulation. But we almost always focus on the total snowfall maps without considering that.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I would like to remind everyone to take a few things into consideration:

 

-Snow maps don't show accumulations. They are somewhat accurate in the sense that they show whether snow reaches the ground or not, but keep in mind that snow maps are under the assumption that every flake sticks, whether its 35F or 28F. They also assume a 10:1 ratio in most cases.

Remember: check your temperatures, time of day, precip intensity, and most importantly, CHECK YOUR DPs!!!

 

-Convective situations are hard to model. Remember that each individual snow or rain shower won't exist exactly how you see them (or at all) on your favorite weather model, even from two hours out.

If you see random inconspicuous snow holes or piles on your map, don't trust them as gospel; think of them in a more broad sense, like "someone will get something, in this general area", and vice versa.

And don't use the GODDAMN GFS AS CONVECTIVE MODEL LIKE OMG

 

-Models, believe it or not, change. For better or for worse.

Don't single out individual models or runs to cherrypick data!

And don't assume that the run you are looking at will be anywhere remotely close to what it will be next, unless it is absolutely obvious there is a trend.

Speaking of trends, learn how to spot the difference between actual trends and wobbling, noise, model physics problems, or day/night biases.

 

Most importantly, THINK CRITICALLY!!

Good write up. Models will likely change right up until the event and even then you can get surprises.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I would like to remind everyone to take a few things into consideration:

 

-Snow maps don't show accumulations. They are somewhat accurate in the sense that they show whether snow reaches the ground or not, but keep in mind that snow maps are under the assumption that every flake sticks, whether its 35F or 28F. They also assume a 10:1 ratio in most cases.

Remember: check your temperatures, time of day, precip intensity, and most importantly, CHECK YOUR DPs!!!

 

-Convective situations are hard to model. Remember that each individual snow or rain shower won't exist exactly how you see them (or at all) on your favorite weather model, even from two hours out.

If you see random inconspicuous snow holes or piles on your map, don't trust them as gospel; think of them in a more broad sense, like "someone will get something, in this general area", and vice versa.

And don't use the GODDAMN GFS AS CONVECTIVE MODEL LIKE OMG

 

-Models, believe it or not, change. For better or for worse.

Don't single out individual models or runs to cherrypick data!

And don't assume that the run you are looking at will be anywhere remotely close to what it will be next, unless it is absolutely obvious there is a trend.

Speaking of trends, learn how to spot the difference between actual trends and wobbling, noise, model physics problems, or day/night biases.

 

Most importantly, THINK CRITICALLY!!

This is the place where R2D2 and WD40 models exist along with the gorton fisherman and the land of constant troughs. Logic is the antichrist here.

[MikeInEverett]

00z ICON is still the best looking model for central Puget Sound.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It's pointless spam that clutters up the board. It doesn't matter if you like a post or not.

Okay okay. I will just write why I like a post instead.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON final caved, in terms of being a lot warmer...

 

On the other hand it has a nice deformation band over the valley Monday night/Tuesday AM.