February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[GHweatherChris]

You actually have a much better chance than the Seattle area. It would be ironic considering you have been the most vocally negative poster. I am sure you won't mind though.

You should know me by now Tim when it comes to potential snowy patterns.

 

I feel like I have a good shot of 3 inches of snow due to the track of the ULL.

 

Also, I am a bit bummed, still recovering from back surgery so can't really enjoy the snow no matter what we get.

[TT-SEA]

You should know me by now Tim when it comes to potential snowy patterns.

 

I feel like I have a good shot of 3 inches of snow due to the track of the ULL.

 

Also, I am a bit bummed, still recovering from back surgery so can't really enjoy the snow no matter what we get.

I am just giving you sh*t... I don't mind your posts at all.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z Sober Uncle Day 1 block 2 notches stronger than 12z

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

While we wait for the 18Z run... 

 

SEA ended up +3.0 for January and there was 3.83 inches of rain compared to a normal of 5.57

 

SEA was almost perfectly normal for the rainy season prior to January... and now is running a -1.86 departure (Oct-Jan).

 

Side note... it rained on 68 days in the Oct-Jan period at SEA.   Normal days with rain in that period is 68.    So for those who say its not normal to have this many dry days in the rainy season... this is actually perfectly normal in that regard.   

 

Had 16 dry days in January up here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1.5 (10 AM Saturday) Animated GIF of past 8 runs. See the trend I have been talking about for a few days of the block strengthening, amplitude increasing, and improved amplification up through Alaska.
https://imgur.com/xaf6qyB

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

While we wait for the 18Z run... 

 

SEA ended up +3.0 for January and there was 3.83 inches of rain compared to a normal of 5.57

 

SEA was almost perfectly normal for the rainy season prior to January... and now is running a -1.86 departure (Oct-Jan).

 

Side note... it rained on 68 days in the Oct-Jan period at SEA.   Normal days with rain in that period is 68.    So for those who say its not normal to have this many dry days in the rainy season... this is actually perfectly normal in that regard.   

Why are you hell bent on trying to prove That it's rained enuff and some how that has something to do with our mountain's snow pack? It has been dryer than normal almost region wide and snow is running 15 to 35% below what it should be last i checked. I'm not throwing a punch or trying to start something but it's like you want us to believe something that's not real. Kinda strange..

[bainbridgekid]

Snowy Sunday for Bellingham on the 18z.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You should know me by now Tim when it comes to potential snowy patterns.

I feel like I have a good shot of 3 inches of snow due to the track of the ULL.

Also, I am a bit bummed, still recovering from back surgery so can't really enjoy the snow no matter what we get.

Hope you have a full recovery man and a fast one!

[Phil]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 HR 54 Arctic trough and low two notches east

 

[Blizzard777]

To pass the time....

Do you remember the Jan 1980 Portland snow storm?

 

I recall a TV Met (I don't remember his name, channel 6 I believe) that forecast a major snow event for PDX. Everyone else scoffed at the idea.

He turned out to be correct.

 

My boss at the time lived near Mall 205 in east Portland and at one point had close to 2 feet of snow. While I lived in Sherwood and all we got was chunky rain.

It seems an arctic front got hung up over Portland, with low pressure just off the coast circulating a lot of precipitation over Portland.

That’s when I learned anything can happen no matter what they say. We were without power for almost a week with that storm. Good memories

I used to live where you currently reside. My best buddy still lives out there in Sandy Palisades Troutdale and I used to live just below Sunrise Park with beautiful view of the cascade range and Mount Hood.

[BLI snowman]

Snowy Sunday for Bellingham on the 18z.

 

Been a pretty consistent theme. I think they're looking good for 3-5" up there.

[TT-SEA]

Why are you hell bent on trying to prove That it's rained enuff and some how that has something to do with our mountain's snow pack? It has been dryer than normal almost region wide and snow is running 15 to 35% below what it should be last i checked. I'm not throwing a punch or trying to start something but it's like you want us to believe something that's not real. Kinda strange..

 

I am just saying that the number of dry days this winter has been perfectly normal.   But its been a little drier than normal in terms of total precip.  You made a comment yesterday about the lack of rainy days being ridiculous... but the number of rainy days this wet season has been literally exactly climo.     That is all.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Probably won't make a difference. Need it to move out off BC further south closer to Vancouver Island.

[GHweatherChris]

Hope you have a full recovery man and a fast one!

Thanks, had surgery in early December but a few setbacks has prolonged the recovery time, gonnna be a bit before I am back to normal life and work.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Man the outflow from the Fraser might be pretty D**n powerful.

[Phil]

[ShawniganLake]

The Arctic front is nearly to Williams Lake now, Shawnigan must be experiencing quite the blizzard.

The snow wasn’t overly heavy. It was raining most of the night but it’s currently 14F with a windchill of 0. With light snow falling.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just by a blend of gfs nam and euro complete snow cover looks like a good bet from at least portland north.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS on Monday afternoon... about the same as previous runs.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2.5 what a gorgeous 500mb pattern

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Geez... Unbelievable how lame the Monday/Tueday period looks now...Yikes.

[Gradient Keeper]

I will not be all that surprised if this trends to where the cold trough holds over us/southwest of us and we go right into an arctic blast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Monday night deformation zone formation looks decent...

[TT-SEA]

Geez... Unbelievable how lame the Monday/Tueday period looks now...Yikes.

 

 

Yeah... just not seeing how the entire area is blanketed in snow by Monday afternoon.    Its not even that cold.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This deformation band signature is showing up on most models now.

It's definitely going to be cold enough with the cold pool and good offshore flow.

 

[Phil]

The 12z EPS keeps the -NAM/-PNA going thru D10-15.

 

[TT-SEA]

Monday night deformation zone formation looks decent...

 

 

Looks good for Portland...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Man if that thing would just shift north and east some and slow down we'd get clobbered.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah... just not seeing how the entire area is blanketed in snow by Monday afternoon.    Its not even that cold.  

 

It is very possible I do not even see accumulating snow at 1600' unless there is some deformation zone action at some point.

[TT-SEA]

The 12z EPS keeps the -NAM/-PNA going thru D10-15.

 

 

 

EPS has been insanely consistent.   It has literally not wavered once.

 

Its going to be a cold month.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Deformation band quickly pulls south. 

 

[Blizzard777]

You should know me by now Tim when it comes to potential snowy patterns.

I feel like I have a good shot of 3 inches of snow due to the track of the ULL.

Also, I am a bit bummed, still recovering from back surgery so can't really enjoy the snow no matter what we get.

Hope you make a full recovery with limited issues. Back pain sucks!

[BLI snowman]

Geez... Unbelievable how lame the Monday/Tueday period looks now...Yikes.

 

This run isn't really any different, as one should expect within 84 hours. Not sure what the surprise is.

[Phil]

And the signal is amplifying towards D15 as the NPAC jet continues to retract poleward above the Indo-China ERW/HC engine.

 

Kaboom. This thing isn’t a one hit wonder. Probably has at least two weeks to run.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[Phil]

And no signs of PV recouping over NE-Canada and/or outrageous warm pool convection/+TNH like we’ve been accustomed to in recent years.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks good for Portland...

 

Monday night has good potential down here with a possible deformation band.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5