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February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1


Guest hawkstwelve

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So just reviewed the top 10 coldest Februaries for Salem. I like to look at SLE because it is the closest major station to me, and it has a continuous period of record back to 1892. 

 

There has not been a top 10 cold February at SLE since 1993. 5 of the 10 coldest were in the 1922-36 period. 3 of the top 11 were in the 1985-1993 period. So they tend to run in bunches. 

 

The average snowfall in these months was 4.4" which is far above the median snowfall at SLE in February. 7 of the 10 years had measurable snow. Some of the years toward the bottom of the top 10 also had some very warm periods. If the EPS is even close to accurate we will put together a really solid first half of the month. To get a top 5-7 cold month we would have to avoid any kind of multi-day 60+ stretch at the end of the month. To get into the top 3-5 we would probably need to have some arctic air make it in at some point. 

 

 

1) 1989

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1989&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

2) 1936

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1936&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

3) 1929

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1929&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

4) 1956

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1956&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

5) 1923

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1923&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

6) 1933

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1933&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

7) 1894

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1894&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

8) 1922

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1922&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

9) 1971

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1971&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

9) 1993

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1993&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The sustained blocking and cold continues right through day 15 on the 12z EPS. Pretty amazing stuff.

 

Looking like we might have a shot at a top tier cold February out this way. 1936 is an unreachable feat but a top 5 is definitely within reach if we end up with that much sustained blocking through at least mid month.

This.

 

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So just reviewed the top 10 coldest Februaries for Salem. I like to look at SLE because it is the closest major station to me, and it has a continuous period of record back to 1892.

 

There has not been a top 10 cold February at SLE since 1993. 5 of the 10 coldest were in the 1922-36 period. 3 of the top 11 were in the 1985-1993 period. So they tend to run in bunches.

 

The average snowfall in these months was 4.4" which is far above the median snowfall at SLE in February. 7 of the 10 years had measurable snow. Some of the years toward the bottom of the top 10 also had some very warm periods. If the EPS is even close to accurate we will put together a really solid first half of the month. To get a top 5-7 cold month we would have to avoid any kind of multi-day 60+ stretch at the end of the month. To get into the top 3-5 we would probably need to have some arctic air make it in at some point.

 

 

1) 1989

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1989&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

2) 1936

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1936&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

3) 1929

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1929&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

4) 1956

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1956&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

5) 1923

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1923&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

6) 1933

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1933&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

7) 1894

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1894&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

8) 1922

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1922&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

9) 1971

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1971&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

9) 1993

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1993&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

It’s coming. If we don’t get a load I’m confident we get a re-load and maybe a re-re-reload.

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To pass the time....

Do you remember the Jan 1980 Portland snow storm?

 

I recall a TV Met (I don't remember his name, channel 6 I believe) that forecast a major snow event for PDX. Everyone else scoffed at the idea.

He turned out to be correct.

 

My boss at the time lived near Mall 205 in east Portland and at one point had close to 2 feet of snow. While I lived in Sherwood and all we got was chunky rain.

It seems an arctic front got hung up over Portland, with low pressure just off the coast circulating a lot of precipitation over Portland.

Was before my time but Jginmartini might know a lot about this snowstorm. He was living down here at the time.

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Yes... January was actually drier than normal even here!    Loved it.   And since we were running perfectly normal for Oct-Dec... January has tilted the rainy season overall to slightly drier than normal now.    

 

The Cedar Lake station near my house normally has 51 inches of rain for the Oct-Jan period... but this year has had just about 48 inches.   

 

The number rainy days has been almost exactly normal though... we had 74 days with rain from Oct-Jan this year and normal is 75.     Climo!!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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To pass the time....

Do you remember the Jan 1980 Portland snow storm?

 

I recall a TV Met (I don't remember his name, channel 6 I believe) that forecast a major snow event for PDX. Everyone else scoffed at the idea.

He turned out to be correct.

 

My boss at the time lived near Mall 205 in east Portland and at one point had close to 2 feet of snow. While I lived in Sherwood and all we got was chunky rain.

It seems an arctic front got hung up over Portland, with low pressure just off the coast circulating a lot of precipitation over Portland.

 

The area I'm living in now had close to 36" of snow in a 3 day period. Probably the greatest snowstorm of the 20th century for a lot of Clark County and the east Portland metro. And of course the gorge, where Hood River had 47" fall in a single day.

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yeah as long as you don’t live in Snohomish county

 

 

The NAM did not change at the 500mb level.   

 

Trust the ECMWF at this point... now that the path of the low has been essentially locked in. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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NAM looks further west.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looking at the models for the Sunday-Tuesday period it is pretty amazing to see how much things have warmed over the past 2-3 days. Hopefully we can avoid that trend for the late week stuff.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A precip rumble at a time like this? Come on, boys...

 

 

Discussing current precipitation anomalies and outlook ahead is probably more meaningful than discussing what happened 30 or 40 years ago.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A precip rumble at a time like this? Come on, boys...

I made a comment about another weaker than expected storm, and of course Tim had to chime in with about eight paragraphs about how this wet season has broken down at his house which does not at all pertain to the dry situation down here and for 95% of the region.

 

Gets really old not being able to make a single comment about precip trends down here without getting a small essay on North Bend. I really don’t care.

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The NAM did not change at the 500mb level.   

 

Trust the ECMWF at this point... now that the path of the low has been essentially locked in.

 

Nothing is locked. You know as much as anyone how much changing can happen in the next 48hrs. A model blend and average is probably best bet. I would bet money things will look much more aggressive tomorrow morning in models.
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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Yup, nothing screams climo like that water year to date map!

 

Climo in terms of tangible weather in my area.

 

95% of normal precip so far... and just about exactly normal in terms of number of days with rain and dry days.  This is a normal rainy season in that regard here... its been a long time coming.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looking at the models for the Sunday-Tuesday period it is pretty amazing to see how much things have warmed over the past 2-3 days. Hopefully we can avoid that trend for the late week stuff.

The early looks I thought were a bit agressive on the cold.  single digits with 50mph sustained fraser outflow takes extreme conditions.  Teens is a normal event for peak outflow cold.

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ICON still sticking to its guns...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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At Silver Falls, the period of record is 1938-present so that cuts out that great 1922-36 period. The top 5 looks MUCH different, but 1989 is still king. Also cold onshore flow Februaries are much more anomalously cold up here than at Salem. 

 

Pretty amazing February 1989 never hit 50 and the warmest high after 2/12/1956 was 41. 

 

1) 1989

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1989&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

2) 1956

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1956&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

3) 2011

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=2011&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

4) 1990

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1990&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

5) 1949

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1949&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

February 1887 is the GOAT.

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You would think the ICON would back off at some point. 

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_24.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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While we wait for the 18Z run... 

 

SEA ended up +3.0 for January and there was 3.83 inches of rain compared to a normal of 5.57

 

SEA was almost perfectly normal for the rainy season prior to January... and now is running a -1.86 departure (Oct-Jan).

 

Side note... it rained on 68 days in the Oct-Jan period at SEA.   Normal days with rain in that period is 68.    So for those who say its not normal to have this many dry days in the rainy season... this is actually perfectly normal in that regard.    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Monday AM the NAM has winds going easterly in PDX and precip changing over to snow. Looks like maybe 1-2 inches on this run. Shows the deformation band building as the low sinks south but the run ends at that point.

 

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

I would not complain about the 6-7 inches of snow this shows for me, pretty sure it's not gonna happen.

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I would not complain about the 6-7 inches of snow this shows for me, pretty sure it's not gonna happen.

 

 

You actually have a much better chance than the Seattle area.   It would be ironic considering you have been the most vocally negative poster.   I am sure you won't mind though.    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You would think the ICON would back off at some point.

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_24.png

I just clicked back many frames. It's consistant. Never know.

According to Ryan Maue the strength of the ICON is inside 3 days. As I mentioned before the ICON did well last February 2018.

 

Ryan Maue@RyanMaue

 

5-day weather model skill update for 500 mb height in NH middle-latitudes. ICON included for comparison ... it's a clear 4th place (behind ECMWF, GFS, and CMC) but definitely in the top-tier. Its strength in in short-term (0-72 hours)

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/951330423321387008?lang=en

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