Tom Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 As the hyper active southern stream wave train develops, the cycling pattern continues to shine and the one system that has the potential to lay down a widespread snow from the Plains up into the GL's is showing up on the models. Could this be the one??? Models have been going back and forth over the past few days on the strength/track and overall idea for the mid next week. I'm encouraged to see both the operational/ensembles continue to advertise a decent snowstorm for those across the heartland. I fully expect to see the models shine a better light with this system over the next day or two. Let's discuss.... 06z GFS...24 hour increments... ...06z FV3... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 I can't remember the last time I had snow on top of snow on top of snow lol. FWIW Lezak thinks 5 or 6in possible for KC with this system. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 I can't remember the last time I had snow on top of snow on top of snow lol. FWIW Lezak thinks 5 or 6in possible for KC with this system.Right?! I hope it happens for you guys down there. This is the pattern that should deliver the goods! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 Could this be the biggie (8"+) for SEMI and other peeps as well........hopefully. Let the fun begin..... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 @Jaster Could this be the one???!!! An all snowevent, w travel being impassable, schools closed, residents rushing to the market for milk, bread and eggs, etc. Ok, maybe I am going a little ovaboard here , but at least disruptive travel. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 Still there.... Thats all that matters at this point. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 Still there....Big run incoming....last 2 cycles the GOM was open for Biz... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 We’ll get another 2 incher this weekend and then the big storm will go south of us. I think I’ve only seen “heavy snow” in the forecast wording once this year with the highest amounts in a forecast period 1-3”. It’s nice to have it snow and storms to track but at this point if this is all it’s going to do, than bring on spring already. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 Let's see if Northwest Indiana can cash in or will the pattern continue for us.. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 I can't remember the last time I had snow on top of snow on top of snow lol. FWIW Lezak thinks 5 or 6in possible for KC with this system.Feels good seeing that eh, I know what ya mean. Nothing like seeing the goods stack up from Ma Nature. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 Could this be the one??? Sorry but I burned that one-liner back with the Jan 18-19 system.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 Still there.... Thats all that matters at this point. especially after tomorrow's "biggie" up and vanished into thin air, for this region at least Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 @Jaster Could this be the one???!!! An all snowevent, w travel being impassable, schools closed, residents rushing to the market for milk, bread and eggs, etc. Ok, maybe I am going a little ovaboard here , but at least disruptive travel. You've been looking at your EC photos again, haven't you? For impassable side streets in your region, you'd prolly havfta go back to 12-1-74, or at least the Jan of '92 surprise dumping. Besides, people like to rush out for last-minute groceries at the slightest mention of "storm". I appreciate Tom's excitement as he's actually missed out worse than myself on a couple storms, but I'm guarding my optimism attm. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 Love the looks of the FV3. Has me in the jack-zone 7 days out - what can go wrong? ;-/ 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 12z already bringing up the WAA concerns that have plagued every storm here this winter - nice 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 I'd obviously like more than 3" from this, but models had us getting no snow before this one so I'll take it. Gives Sewer City some much-needed snow too. Don't worry, lakesers. These aren't your storm totals. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 12z euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 Euro keeps us with 6" OTG even after the Wed/Thurs/Fri "torch." Yes please. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 HAHAHA all I can do is Laugh at season we are having in Northwest indiana!! I'd obviously like more than 3" from this, but models had us getting no snow before this one so I'll take it. Gives Sewer City some much-needed snow too. Don't worry,These aren't your storm totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 18Z HRRR. Be careful Omaha, don't cut yourselves on that razorblade cutoff. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 18Z HRRR. Be careful Omaha, don't cut yourselves on that razorblade cutoff.wrong thread lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 wrong thread lolUhhhhhh . Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 You've been looking at your EC photos again, haven't you? For impassable side streets in your region, you'd prolly havfta go back to 12-1-74, or at least the Jan of '92 surprise dumping. Besides, people like to rush out for last-minute groceries at the slightest mention of "storm". I appreciate Tom's excitement as he's actually missed out worse than myself on a couple storms, but I'm guarding my optimism attm. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 18Z HRRR. Be careful Omaha, don't cut yourselves on that razorblade cutoff.I’ll be waving to you from sunny Omaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 I’ll keep my fingers crossed for NE Okla. Texas will likely only see rain from here on. Oh well, nice try. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 Still there. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 12z euro Thanks for posting. Looking like yet another mix-fest for SMI - yay. Finally get a great track and still dealing with the bs over-amped WTOD. So much for cold dominating this winter. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 HAHAHA all I can do is Laugh at season we are having in Northwest indiana!! Glad you're in a laughing mood. But seriously, NWIN has gotten screwed in every direction this winter it seems. A lot of stuff's gone literally just north of you but still hit me. Normally SW to NE moving systems will get you then head my way. Strange season. They keep getting stranger imo Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 GFS & FV3 are status quo tonight. The Canadian had been zzz, but is more robust tonight. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 And now the UK has joined the others in showing a decent system. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 Euro has it also -- very high snow ratios with this... Around .2" qpf in C.IA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 06Z GFS has it ; but just barely. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 This one bears watching for SEMI. Still ways off, but it has potential, hopefully. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 12z GFS still showing the good ol' southern Plains/OV storm track but not quite as impressive as the previous LRC cycles. We still have plenty of time to see this develop into something bigger. Needless to say, that's quite a large and expansive snow shield from the southern Plains up into the MW/GL's. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 LOL. The FV3 just came in super juiced across Iowa. I'm going to bet against this. It's a modest system that races through. A few inches seems more likely. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 12z GFS still showing the good ol' souther Plains/OV storm track but not quite as impressive as the previous LRC cycles. We still have plenty of time to see this develop into something bigger. Needless to say, that's quite a large and expansive snow shield from the southern Plains up into the MW/GL'sThe flow may be to progressive to get monster amounts this cycle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 Euro over .6" qpf (all snow) here. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 Euro over .6" qpf (all snow) here.If you have a map for the whole state, could you post it? We’d all appreciate it I’m sure. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 Wow these near misses here are killing me hope things can change, getting pretty sick of cold rain only for it to drop well below freezing the next day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 If you have a map for the whole state, could you post it? We’d all appreciate it I’m sure. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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