2/19 - 2/20 Southern Plains/GL's Cutter

[Minny_Weather]

12z nam

Oh no not 2.8" here! 

[Hawkeye]

Models are definitely suggesting that, while the main fluffy snow band is farther west, there will be another batch of heavier precip that pokes out to the east somewhere around here.  Recent model runs have tended to wetten that band out toward Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.

 

I was wondering why DVN issued a warning for 4-6", but they are also saying 20-30 mph wind gusts, which I was not expecting.  It appears eastern Iowa will get the stronger wind.

[gosaints]

Models are definitely suggesting that, while the main fluffy snow band is farther west, there will be another batch of heavier precip that pokes out to the east somewhere around here.  Recent model runs have tended to wetten that band out toward Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.

The NAM was underplaying that drastically.  Now playing catch up

[jcwxguy]

3km nam

[gabel23]

Nws

Hastings NWS forecast. By far this will be our biggest storm and share the wealth storm we have had in a while! My grid has 5-9" and heavy snow wording! Of course wait until this weekend......

[gabel23]

Really upped parts of Central Nebraska.  This run has moved the 7" line over me it looks like.  

Call me crazy but I think you guys get more than what's being forecasted for your area! 

[East Dubzz]

La Crosse NWS is siding with the HRRR/RAP, which seems to saturate the air much faster than the NAM. Hopefully they’re right on that.

[Hawkeye]

12 HRRR

 

There's that finger of heavier precip poking into eastern Iowa.  Totals drop off north and south of that finger.

 

[jcwxguy]

In this model you can see the area to the southeast of Omaha which keeps creeping nw each run which shows less snow

[FarmerRick]

In this model you can see the area to the southeast of Omaha which keeps creeping nw each run which shows less snow

 

 

Par for the course.  Rusty Lord is sticking with 5-8 for Omaha

[gosaints]

The canadian is taking a nap this morning

[Hawkeye]

12z ICON - This model has really shifted the heavy precip farther north while drying out Nebraska through southern and eastern Iowa.  It had been looking pretty similar to other models.

 

[Minny_Weather]

12z ICON - This model has really shifted the heavy precip farther north while drying out Nebraska through southern and eastern Iowa.  It had been looking pretty similar to other models.

 

Thankfully ICON is garbage so there's nothing to worry about.

 

Every model is initializing precip horribly. Makes me think that whatever happens will be a surprise, good or bad. Definitely no models showing the light snow in Kansas correctly right now. 3KM NAM is the best of the worst atm initialization-wise. 

[NH4NU]

Day of event my Nebraska friends. Begin to remove yourselves from the models!

[Minny_Weather]

Day of event my Nebraska friends. Begin to remove yourselves from the models!

I'm always one of the first to say get rid of models but I don't think we need to just yet. The storm isn't even close to here yet. Globals yes. Mesoscale models can have our attention for a few more hours.

[gosaints]

I'm always one of the first to say get rid of models but I don't think we need to just yet. The storm isn't even close to here yet. Globals yes. Mesoscale models can have our attention for a few more hours.

I never ignore even globals when a storm is in the very early stage of development.  Forecast offices wont either

[dubuque473]

Sticking by my 5" prediction.

[NH4NU]

To each their own I suppose!

 

You can already easily identify the saturation and moisture field north of Oklahoma City. This precip SHOULD intensify, expand, and spread north throughout the afternoon.

[gosaints]

To each their own I suppose!

 

You can already easily identify the saturation and moisture field north of Oklahoma City. This precip SHOULD intensify, expand, and spread north throughout the afternoon.

To be fair you are in a much different area than I am speaking of RAP/HRRR trends are more important their currently than here

[East Dubzz]

I never ignore the models until the storm starts. The NAM was the only one calling the mixed precip here last storm. Even the HRRR was way off on that. You don’t want to rely heavily on the globals, but it’s still important to digest what they’re showing.

[Hawkeye]

12z Canadian

 

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS

 

[East Dubzz]

Sticking by my 5" prediction.

I’ll go with 3.5” here. Just feel like it’s going to be difficult to accumulate 5” for a relatively fast moving storm, with likely less than impressive ratios. Hope I’m wrong.

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS-FV3 - Yikes!  This is the worst run of any model so far for the eastern folks, takes much of the snow away from the southern and eastern Iowa.

 

[NH4NU]

[erburns18]

Just saw ol Jim over at Bass Pro

[Stormhunter87]

[NH4NU]

Someone else knows the "Barbs Rule" lol. I do miss his storm forecasts. He was very detailed and did alot of interaction with them.

 

 

Couldn’t agree more!! Loved his nightly updates and creativity behind his forecasts!

[NH4NU]

On a more important note precip is now enhancing in central KS and west central OK!

[Minny_Weather]

On a more important note precip is now enhancing in central KS and west central OK!

Yeah so far this thing is seeming way wetter than what models originally had. My one worry is the low ending up too far West. The precip seems to be more West than what models had it with. If we can stick with the St. Joe Low we're good to go. As jcwxguy said earlier, though, a shift West is not out of the question and is the worst case scenario here.

[Minny_Weather]

I will add, though, that a slight shift West wouldn't be a bad thing for here. It may piss off everyone else on the board, but that'd bring the heaviest banding here. I'd take that. Just need to avoid a shift TOO far West.

[snowstorm83]

I wonder when the last time the entire OAX was under a winter storm warning, impressive coverage. One good thing about this is that heavy totals are somewhat widespread instead of a 2-3 county wide weenie band. 

[East Dubzz]

Not to be a smartass, but how can the precip be further west than what the models were showing.. if the models weren’t showing this precip yet?

[Minny_Weather]

Not to be a smartass, but how can the precip be further west than what the models were showing.. if the models weren’t showing this precip yet?

I said current radar is more wet than what models were showing. Whatever precip the models did have was East of current radar.

[East Dubzz]

I said current radar is more wet than what models were showing. Whatever precip the models did have was East of current radar.

Seems about right to me.

[OmahaSnowFan]

6-10" in the grids for tonight along with the "heavy snowfall" wording. Been a LONG time since I've seen that much for me in one forecast period!

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR, over the last several runs, has steadily dried up the initial e-w snow band over Iowa.

[gosaints]

The HRRR, over the last several runs, has steadily dried up the initial e-w snow band over Iowa.

we are gonna have some dry air issues I think

[Minny_Weather]

Seems about right to me.

Radar is definitely wetter and about 50 miles West down in Kansas buttttt alright.

 

6-10" in the grids for tonight along with the "heavy snowfall" wording. Been a LONG time since I've seen that much for me in one forecast period!

5-9" here. This is surprising coming from OAX but I guess they really had no choice here.

[Iowawx]

The HRRR, over the last several runs, has steadily dried up the initial e-w snow band over Iowa.

What's your current guess for snowfall in Cedar Rapids? I'm thinking 4-5 here, maybe 6 if things can come together right here, but still looks like a good snowfall overall.