February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful morning

 

[MossMan]

26.8 degrees currently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will say the 06z ICON took a perfect track for a EUG-PDX snowstorm. 12z would be a little to far south for anyone north of Albany.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I just have a sneaky suspicion its portlands turn mon/tue

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Let's zero in on this Cape Blanco landfall...

 

Kind of dumb so many places in the valley stayed socked in the low clouds. Wonder how persistent they will be today. Totally clear and now down to 24 up here. Coldest low since the 10th.

Yeah, that seems to be the best landfall spot for most of the Willamette Valley to get the goods.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I hope this verifies as the beginning of the inevitable warm up leading into spring. I've had my fill of winter. It was pleasant the first few days then it just wouldn't stop snowing over here. It has snowed every Fu***** day here since January 23. Done!

We'll happily take all of the future snow off your hands. Is this the longest snow stretch you've had up there?

[Geos]

NWS Seattle is saying basically that we are now too late in the season for any meaningful snowfall and that we are just likely to see a mix at times. Definitely nothing historic or even somewhat exciting.

 

They obviously don’t remember some of the great late February/early March snowfalls.

Don't know why they would say that after an already cold and snowy first 20 days of the month. 2 years ago in late February I got dumped on by the CZ.

[seattleweatherguy]

NWS Seattle is saying basically that we are now too late in the season for any meaningful snowfall and that we are just likely to see a mix at times. Definitely nothing historic or even somewhat exciting.

 

They obviously don’t remember some of the great late February/early March snowfalls.

That when you know they know it's possible

[BhamMe]

I'm off to Big White, BC for some skiing over the next few days. Some light flurries the Friday into Saturday and cool, somewhere around -13 C on average. I'll see if I can get a big fan and blow some cold air down to Portland for all. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z FV3 trended a little North. Can't go north much further now if your in PDX Metro.

 

[Requiem]

GFS stayed basically the same. I’m feeling decent, I’m scared of both too north and too south.

 

EDIT: at face value it is a tad bit south.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[wxmet]

Flow is still zonal but the trough isn’t digging as much which allows things to come a bit further north. Where that trough sets up will ultimately determine where the low goes.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z GEM makes landfall right around the OR/CA border. Similar to the 12z ICON.

 

[umadbro]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Based on the model performance this year, especially for the Willamette Valley. The only "huge" runs are the ones just before the event.

 

Way to early for any one run to be considered huge.

Sure, the runs will get bigger and bigger as the event draws near.

[Perturbed Member]

They really need to fix the FV3

 

[umadbro]

They really need to fix the FV3

 

Personally I think it's great. Eye candy is always entertaining.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z UKMET just arrived. Here is what it shows days 4 to 6. Sticking to it's Southern solution. Landfall looks like around the OR/CA border.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks south.

The 12z UKMET just arrived. Here is what it shows days 4 to 6. Sticking to it's Southern solution. Landfall looks like around the OR/CA border.

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif
http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif
http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Esquimalt]

Just looking at the FV3, shows an amazing overrunning event for northern areas. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks south.

Yeah, similar to what the 12z GEM and ICON just showed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing how much ensemble spread there is just a few days out.

[MossMan]

They really need to fix the FV3

 

Yeah the Puget Sound area will not see anywhere close to those numbers.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z UKMET precipitation maps for this Monday. It trended a little bit further north with the moisture compared to last night's 00z run. Northern edge makes it into the Central Willamette Valley.

 

[crf450ish]

We'll happily take all of the future snow off your hands. Is this the longest snow stretch you've had up there?

Since we've lived here, (June 15') yes. I think my perception on it is much different now that I don't travel out of state for work anymore. I used to be gone away from home working elsewhere around the country so when I would come home, it was a novelty to me. Now that I have a career thay allows me to be home every night, I have to deal with this day in and day out. I dont want to live in a snowy climate. Wwaaayyyyy too much work. Especially when a mild winter is one like we've had this year and last year ...."only" 2 1/2 feet of snow on the ground by March. Lifelong locals say it used to snow upwards of 6 feet during winter in these parts...back in the "good ol' days". Well I'm convinced those days are nearing once again and I don't want any part of that. Phoenix here we come!

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, similar to what the 12z GEM and ICON just showed.

Right about where we'd want to see it on those lesser models at this point.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I bet it makes landfall around cannon beach. I think the fv3 in on the that trend.

[Geos]

Yeah the Puget Sound area will not see anywhere close to those numbers.

 

Looks like a CZ signature over King County on that map.

[Esquimalt]

Not impressed with the GFS ensembles this morning.  Not as much time with the cool air and a bigger warmup.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not impressed with the GFS ensembles this morning.  Not as much time with the cool air and a bigger warmup.

 

Massive spread between members.

[Esquimalt]

WRF looks good for most with the weekend system. 

[Front Ranger]

I have included the aviation section for all of the “above the frayers”

Well played.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

There's lots of school delays this morning on the east side.

I left the east side for work at around 6am this morning and I slid on some ice going down a small hill out here. Had to slam on my breaks hard, good thing there wasn't anybody else oncoming at the same time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I left the east side for work at around 6am this morning and I slid on some ice going down a small hill out here. Had to slam on my breaks hard, good thing there wasn't anybody else oncoming at the same time.

 

Demonic drive down the hill this morning. 

 

[Front Ranger]

I hope this verifies as the beginning of the inevitable warm up leading into spring. I've had my fill of winter. It was pleasant the first few days then it just wouldn't stop snowing over here. It has snowed every Fu***** day here since January 23. Done!

Blasphemy!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All good things must come to an end. 

[Front Ranger]

NWS Seattle is saying basically that we are now too late in the season for any meaningful snowfall and that we are just likely to see a mix at times. Definitely nothing historic or even somewhat exciting.

 

They obviously don’t remember some of the great late February/early March snowfalls.

Feb 2011 was a long time ago.

[Omegaraptor]

Is this the longest streak of sub-50 highs in Portland history? At this rate we might not see a 60 until April.

[Blizzard777]

Chilly 32* this beautiful sunny morning

Temp dropped to 30* last night and current dew point is 28*

 

Friend down in Vegas said rooftops were white with snow and reports of up to 6” of snow in the surrounding area of Vegas.

McCarran international recorded 1 inch of snow early this morning at 4 am.

Trended Way South!