February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Jesse]

IMO, the debate over whether something is “due” or not conflates and/or welds statistical probability based on historical tendencies with quantitative, mathematically-derived probability rooted in the sea of chaos.

 

It’s all perspective-based, and there’s no way to prove or disprove either take.

This. Like I said, the whole idea of due-isms is pretty subjective/unscientific by its nature.

[Phil]

Wow..

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/saskatchewan-devastating-cold-80-years-weather-1.5019623

[Phil]

More wow.

 

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-cold-february-20190225-story.html

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Not sure Steve Pierce can be compared to Matt and Mark. 

 

None of them can compare to Wronga Shelby.  She is the benchmark.

[Deweydog]

None of them can compare to Wronga Shelby. She is the benchmark.

Racist.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The nobody cares part seems fitting.

Funny how people start whining when places that are capable of a harsh winter gets one.  Comical.            

[Bryant]

C- is pretty harsh for a top tier cold month with near average snowfall for much of the metro.

This

[Bryant]

More wow.

 

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-cold-february-20190225-story.html

 

Globallll warmingggg

[TT-SEA]

Funny how people start whining when places that are capable of a harsh winter gets one.  Comical.            

 

 

Just like the Los Angeles data... its indicative of how extreme the pattern has been this month.

 

People are going to complain about extreme weather.   We are capable of having hot summers too... that does stop you and others from complaining every time it gets above 80.   

[Jesse]

Funny how people start whining when places that are capable of a harsh winter gets one. Comical.

Yup. Sort of hilarious and pitiful at the same time.

[TT-SEA]

Yup. Sort of hilarious and pitiful at the same time.

 

 

Is that what you say to Kayla?  

[Front Ranger]

Racist.

 

Also sexist.

 

If she's also a lesbian, he scored a trifecta.

[Jesse]

Is that what you say to Kayla?

No I said it to Snowmizer.

[Jesse]

More wow.

 

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-cold-february-20190225-story.html

 

PDX has them beat. On track to score their second coldest average February high on record in the airport era.

[Front Ranger]

Definitely agree.

 

It drives me crazy how so many people live and die by these numbers and indices without even understanding what it is they represent, or even looking at a hemispheric 500mb map.

 

Go back to the LIA, for example, and the current PNA index would be useless because the Pacific Hadley Cell was so narrow and the NPAC surf zone/polar front was displaced so equatorward that it would likely register as neutral PNA over 90% of the time, with a very southward suppressed jet.

 

That being said, as you saw from the 500mb map I posted from the past month, the only real impressive anomalies have been over the NE Pacific/GOA. It's been this monstrous -PNA that has overwhelmed pretty much everything else for most the country, with some cooperation from the EPO/NAO at times.

 

I don't know when the last time was that this was the case.

[TT-SEA]

No I said it to snowmizer.

 

 

You said you understood her point of view.   But you don't understand people in MN and WI saying enough...where snow and cold records have been crushed over the last 6 weeks.  And another arctic blast is coming.  

[TT-SEA]

That band of "precip" is pushing through King County now as the models have showed this evening. 

 

40 here with a dewpoint of 24... totally dry and even some breaks in the clouds.   Unlikely to see any snow tonight.  

[Front Ranger]

This. Like I said, the whole idea of due-isms is pretty subjective/unscientific by its nature.

 

That's probably why most the posts here about "due-ness" are tongue-in-cheek.

[Front Ranger]

Wow..

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/saskatchewan-devastating-cold-80-years-weather-1.5019623

 

I just learned what a tuque is.

[Tyler Mode]

I actually lost a tree in the winds last night.  Probably as strong as I can remember the winds since November 2014 when we had a downslope windstorm.

 

Snowed for hours and hours today and we managed a trace...

[Jesse]

You said you understood her point of view. But you don't understand people in MN and WI saying enough...where snow and cold records have been crushed over the last 6 weeks. And another arctic blast is coming.

I don’t understand posting a forgettable meme about it to a PNW weather group. It would be one thing it if was even clever.

[Jesse]

That's probably why most the posts here about "due-ness" are tongue-in-cheek.

Seems like you were trying to put a nice pseudo-scientific spin on them earlier.

[TT-SEA]

I don’t understand posting a forgettable meme about it to a PNW weather group. It would be one thing it if was even clever.

 

 

You said it was hilarious and pitiful for people to complain about extreme weather far outside the normal.    I will remember that.  

[Jesse]

You said it was hilarious and pitiful for people to complain about extreme weather. I will remember that.

Could this mean that some trolling of cool weather fans may be on the way from you this warm season? Man, what’s that gonna be like??

[Requiem]

I actually lost a tree in the winds last night. Probably as strong as I can remember the winds since November 2014 when we had a downslope windstorm.

 

Snowed for hours and hours today and we managed a trace...

Winds were crazy strong yesterday, definitely the strongest east winds I’ve seen since early February 2017.

[TT-SEA]

Could this mean that some trolling of cool weather fans may be on the way from you this warm season? Man, what’s that gonna be like??

 

 

That is usually in response to your anxiety-ridden mocking of anyone who enjoys warm weather activities or has access to a lake.    

[Phil]

PDX has them beat. On track to score their second coldest average February high on record in the airport era.

How close are they to the record again? I’m sorry I’m a bit out of the loop..so many records, so weather much to track, so much school + spring work picking up.

[Front Ranger]

That band of "precip" is pushing through King County now as the models have showed this evening. 

 

40 here with a dewpoint of 24... totally dry and even some breaks in the clouds.   Unlikely to see any snow tonight.  

 

FWIW, the wishy washy 0z NAM is much more optimistic for Seattle north in a few hours than the 18z was.

 

[jakeinthevalley]

If there had even been a chance of snow that day, LHO would have been too preoccupied with checking the NAM 32km, NAM 12km, NAM 3km, GFS, ICON, JMA, UKMET, EURO, NAVGEM, GEM, WRF, EPS, GEFS, HRRR, RPM and obsessively refreshing the local radar loop to be blowing anyone’s head off that day.

In 1962 only the MRF was operational

[Jesse]

That is usually in response to your anxiety-ridden mocking of anyone who enjoys warm weather activities or has access to a lake.

So when you posted that meme was this kind of back and fourth your end goal, culminating in a personal attack based on my preferences? My guess is yes, and you’re welcome. You play innocent all the time but you love to stir the pot.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, the wishy washy 0z NAM is much more optimistic for Seattle north in a few hours than the 18z was.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_5.png

 

 

ECMWF showed that too...

 

[Front Ranger]

Seems like you were trying to put a nice pseudo-scientific spin on them earlier.

 

Subtle differences. I was actually mocking the concept of anyone being "due".

[TT-SEA]

Subtle differences. I was actually mocking the concept of anyone being "due".

 

 

I have tried to explain this to my mother-in-law when it comes to slot machines... to no avail.   Being "due" is the biggest misconception that financially ruins gamblers.  

[Jesse]

How close are they to the record again? I’m sorry I’m a bit out of the loop..so many records, so weather much to track, so much school + spring work picking up.

They are a few degrees off. Average high should end up around 43, record coldest was 40.9 in 1956. The previous second coldest was 43.5 in 1989.

 

As far as overall average temp they will be third coldest with something around 37.8F, beaten only by 1989 with an average of 36 and 1956 with an average of 35.8

[Front Ranger]

ECMWF showed that too...

 

 

Mossman might be one of the few to see something tonight. Shocking. 

[Requiem]

Well, even if more snow isn’t in Portland’s future, at least the east winds look strong (for this late in the season).

[Jesse]

Well, even if more snow isn’t in Portland’s future, at least the east winds look strong (for this late in the season).

It would be nice to get a heavy wet snowfall at some point in the first half of March. Seems like we could remain in a favorable pattern for such a thing.

[Requiem]

It would be nice to get a heavy wet snowfall at some point in the first half of March. Seems like we could remain in a favorable pattern for such a thing.

And perhaps we could get a nice overrunning event of some sort next week if all goes well.

[Front Ranger]

But it was raining during Trump’s inauguration.

 

Which makes it especially impressive that he managed the largest crowd ever assembled in one place.

[Jesse]

And perhaps we could get a nice overrunning event of some sort next week if all goes well.

 

That'd be great but those become a pretty rare breed going forward. Some overnight slop in a maritime polar airmass that piles up quick but melts the next day is probably our best bet.