February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[HighlandExperience]

Central puget sound has its snow chastity belt on tight.

Maybe if we throw a tantrum it will snow

[TT-SEA]

Saturday...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe if we throw a tantrum it will snow

 

That usually works well in my experience. I think Snow Wiz did it a few weeks ago and got an additional 6". I have found success with that method in the past myself. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Another light flurry

[TT-SEA]

Sunday...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday...

 

 

Looks like the EURO is on board with the GEM and GFS ensembles for another push of wicked air into the basin.

[Geos]

No real surprises here...Although they seem to suggest I saw slightly more snow than I actually did. At least I'm not in the complete snow hole which is slightly to my south and west in Skagit County.

 

Nice map. Just wish they wouldn't have covered my location with the Seattle label. 2'+ here is accurate.

[TT-SEA]

Expanded view of Sunday... to see the craziness to the east.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Andrew.]

The snow intensity has really picked up here, coming down pretty good now. Looks like the radar is back filling and a solid band has now formed over the west metro.

[Blizzard777]

Snowflakes on my weather station this morning...it’s going to happen!

Can’t believ it! 12 snowflakes = 1 foot of snow too like Tim said

[Geos]

Snowflakes on my weather station this morning...it’s going to happen!

Lets hope the GFS is right and all the other models are out to lunch on this event. Hanging at 35° here. Ground was really frozen over this morning.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

No real surprises here...Although they seem to suggest I saw slightly more snow than I actually did. At least I'm not in the complete snow hole which is slightly to my south and west in Skagit County.

 

Yikes, wow the heck happened in Western Skagit County? They got donuted compared to the rest of the region. I even got more snow than them.

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Really surprised to see the Euro sticking with the Sunday/Monday instanity. Along with the GEFS trending that way as well.

[bainbridgekid]

Yikes, wow the heck happened in Western Skagit County? They got donuted compared to the rest of the region. I even got more snow than them.

They were too far South for some of the Events that focused on Whatcom county, but also too far North and shadowed for the big events that hit Seattle.

 

They really seem to rely on convergence zones up there since they get snow shadowed from most of the big overunning events. They occasionally get really nailed (like February 2011) but in quite a few situations get some of the least amount of snow around.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Radar filling in east of I-5 all the way south of Eugene. Snow picking up here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really surprised to see the Euro sticking with the Sunday/Monday instanity. Along with the GEFS trending that way as well.

 

GEM brought sub 516 thickness through the gorge. 

[Geos]

I was up in Mt. Vernon after the first 2 events and they had barely half of what I had. Then I was in Burlington on Sunday and just the parking lots that were plowed had snow left. So they definitely got the short end of the (snow)stick.

[GHweatherChris]

Moderate snow

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

They were too far South for some of the Events that focused on Whatcom county, but also too far North and shadowed for the big events that hit Seattle.

 

They really seem to rely on convergence zones up there since they get snow shadowed from most of the big overunning events. They occasionally get really nailed (like February 2011) but in quite a few situations get some of the least amount of snow around.

I was born and raised in Anacortes, and often, because is is right on the Sound, it is too warm for snow in marginal situations. It also often stays cooler in the summer compared to other places away from the water. Seattle could be 80 and Whidbey and Anacortes could be in the low 60's if the low clouds are still around.

[TT-SEA]

A few sun breaks and 40 here... dewpoint is 16 and its fairly windy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A few sun breaks and 40 here... dewpoint is 16 and its fairly windy.

 

Sounds really nice. I hope we have a few days like that down here early next week or over the weekend. 

[TT-SEA]

Radar filling in east of I-5 all the way south of Eugene. Snow picking up here. 

 

That is the band that will arc up here through eastern King County in 4 or 5 hours and eventually up to Belingham and Vancouver BC.

[bainbridgekid]

I was up in Mt. Vernon after the first 2 events and they had barely half of what I had. Then I was in Burlington on Sunday and just the parking lots that were plowed had snow left. So they definitely got the short end of the (snow)stick.

It also doesn't help that that whole area of Western Skagit county is completely flat and all mainly under 200 feet elevation.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

They were too far South for some of the Events that focused on Whatcom county, but also too far North and shadowed for the big events that hit Seattle.

 

They really seem to rely on convergence zones up there since they get snow shadowed from most of the big overunning events. They occasionally get really nailed (like February 2011) but in quite a few situations get some of the least amount of snow around.

I see. Thanks for the explanation.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Coming down at a good clip again. Aggregate flakes. Wow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Is that an overrunning even on euro late next week?

[seattleweatherguy]

That is the band that will arc up here through eastern King County in 4 or 5 hours and eventually up to Belingham and Vancouver BC.

Bummer I'm west king county

[Rustysprocket]

Some shots of the snow that piled up in Central Oregon, Sunriver and La Pine area.  

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Is that an overrunning even on euro late next week?

 

Sort of... one week from today.    Marginal set up and it shows it warming up quite a bit by Thursday.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Why is it so warm at PDX today?

[TT-SEA]

Why is it so warm at PDX today?

 

34 is warm?

 

Precip intensity is probably too light for it to be colder during the day.

[MossMan]

Yikes, wow the heck happened in Western Skagit County? They got donuted compared to the rest of the region. I even got more snow than them.

That area just simply does not do well in most snow situations due to what Brian and others have said. It takes a miracle (Feb. 2011) for that area to get a good dumping. I purposely chose to avoid looking at places to buy in that area due to that very reason. Yet I can drive into that “zone” in 10 minutes so it’s not far away from me at all.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene airport went offline...I really hope they measure snow today.

[Requiem]

Coming down pretty nicely, big flakes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

According to the EURO PDX could hit 50 on Friday.

[Omegaraptor]

Finally! Warmth in the models! If we can get at least consistent 50s by mid-March and a 65+ or two in late March, that would be lovely.

[Guest Sounder]

Finally! Warmth in the models! If we can get at least consistent 50s by mid-March and a 65+ or two in late March, that would be lovely.

Seriously. If it's not going to snow then there is no point in cold. I'm definitely ready for some warm weather.

[Phil]

The interesting thing also is that the AO has actually been positive since the first week of February, and the NAO has been essentially neutral over the past 4 weeks. The EPO has gone quite negative at times, but not as much as some winters like 2013-14.

 

Overwhelming, the cold weather in the CONUS has been driven by very strong NE Pacific blocking. Been awhile since we've seen a monster -PNA deliver the type of anomalies we've seen this month.

 

compday.3FDQGqQEU6.gif

The AO “technically” has been positive since Feb 8th, but it’s a false positive. You can’t always rely on these indices to provide an accurate description of the system state because it can deviate from their EOF structure significantly.

 

In this case, there has been a heavy block over the North American side of the pole throughout this period, but the vortex that was blasted away and displaced towards N-Siberia following the downwelling of the SSW has spiked the AO index even if it’s technically not a +AO. And it’s a shallow vortex, not coupled to the stratosphere.