February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What large lobe? I must be blind tonight.

On the sat loop.

[weatherfan2012]

The GFS and many of the EPS members have another round of insane cold for much of the country this weekend and early next week.

I can’t recall 850mb temperatures ever dropping to -23C or colder here on March 6th. I’ll have to look back at reanalysis but that would be ridiculous. In all of its insanity, not even March 2014 pulled that off.

that would be absurd cold for March

[Phil]

I'm perpetually amazed by how much of an effect the highest atmospheric levels (above 200 mb) have on overall circulation patterns. There's so little air up there...

That’s why I’m so fascinated by it. The spatial equilibrium is so fragile..it’s hard to comprehend sometimes, especially when certain weather patterns repeat for years on end, haha.

 

But it really can change in the blink of an eye. It just takes the right bump at the right time. And the more I learn, the more humbling and sobering it has gotten for me, as I realize how little I actually know.

 

The climate system is more complex, and is capable of so much more, than anyone presently alive can grasp. And this is not just hyperbole...some of the stuff we’ve uncovered in the proxy record (over the last two years alone) seems to defy logic.

 

There will be some great literature published later this year in that department.

[Blizzard777]

Wonder if those echoes forming near Olympia/Tacoma will turn into anything interesting. Hoping the current band around Seattle that’s moving north gives me a dusting.

Very light snow here under that band

[MikeInEverett]

Welp this band is trying really hard to fizzle our right as it gets over me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Eugene officially recorded 6.5" yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

Its snowing and starting to stick in Bellingham per the Barkley cam... definitely more than the flurries in the Seattle area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Roller coaster day some places in E. Oregon. K-Falls and John Day both almost hit 50 today and are now back in the 20s with snow falling.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Pretty pathetic way to transition up here, too far west to catch one band but too far east to catch the stuff circling the center of the low. Looks like Abbotsford is reporting 39F with rain/snow mix, must be getting some downslope heating on that side of the Strait. 

 

Currently 38F here in Victoria. February has sure proven itself a winter month again in this region this past decade. Another coolish day tomorrow would be nice to solidify this as a truly cold month, but after that I'm hoping for a more active pattern even if it's warm/rainy. This cool/dry is getting old, the only impressively numbers now are the anomalies, 40-45F days are pretty normal fare every winter.

[snow_wizard]

I'm liking the looks of the radar right now.  It's obvious that an area of precip in the developing stages well south of what the models have been suggesting.  Could be good for King County and points northward.  I already had a brief period of snow earlier, but what's coming looks far more impressive.

[Perturbed Member]

[snow_wizard]

Looks like Eugene officially recorded 6.5" yesterday.

 

What is going on with Eugene in recent years?  Normally they get considerably less snow than Seattle, but this decade has been ridiculous for them.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm liking the looks of the radar right now.  It's obvious that an area of precip in the developing stages well south of what the models have been sugesting.  Could be good for King County and points northward.  I already had a brief period of snow earlier, but what's coming looks far more impressive.

 

Hope so. 

[snow_wizard]

Went from showing 4" up this way tonight to only seeing a dusting per the models. I was PDX'd

 

This is a ULL.  Watch the radar.

[snow_wizard]

Hope so. 

 

This coming area looks pretty darn good.  It's in the developing stages.

[TT-SEA]

Hope so.

There is nothing much going on down here. Its just flurries. Better dynamics up north.

 

Models showed this second area of light precip forming this evening after first band and then lifting north by 10 p.m.

[High Desert Mat?]

This is making the facebook rounds in MN and WI... came up numerous times today. Some places in MN and WI have had 4-5 feet of snow in February alone. That has just smashed records.

 

 

 

 

This is for Oneida County WI...

 

Almost Redmond status. Who would’ve thought?

[MikeInEverett]

Not often you smell petrichor with snow/graupel.

[Bryant]

Its snowing and starting to stick in Bellingham per the Barkley cam... definitely more than the flurries in the Seattle area.

I love that cam

[TT-SEA]

I love that cam

Me too... and its a mile from my parents house so its helpful for me to see their weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What is going on with Eugene in recent years?  Normally they get considerably less snow than Seattle, but this decade has been ridiculous for them.

 

They had the huge March snowstorm on 3/21/12 (8.5), got slammed twice during 13-14 and had a low of -10 which was their 2nd lowest all time. And they did fine in 2016-17 too though not as well as Salem or PDX.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Almost Redmond status. Who would’ve thought?

 

How does this event compare to January 2017 or the huge event in November 2014?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene currently trying to cash in on some clearing...

[TT-SEA]

Hope so.

Do use a radar app zoomed in on your area? That can make echoes look much more robust than reality. I usually use the NWS radar site which is better for seeing the big picture.

 

 

The blue stuff is just virga or flurries when the air mass is dry. Need green in the situation.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting how much colder the GEM continues to be in relation to the GFS. 

[ShawniganLake]

Its snowing and starting to stick in Bellingham per the Barkley cam... definitely more than the flurries in the Seattle area.

Hopefully that circles back to Vancouver. YVR has managed just 1 above average snow season since the big 08/09 winter.

 

DUE!

[Esquimalt]

Hopefully that circles back to Vancouver. YVR has managed just 1 above average snow season since the big 08/09 winter.

 

DUE!

I have a feeling we’re gonna have a snowless night here

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully that circles back to Vancouver. YVR has managed just 1 above average snow season since the big 08/09 winter.

 

DUE!

Looks good up there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Do use a radar app zoomed in on your area? That can make echoes look much more robust than reality. I usually use the NWS radar site which is better for seeing the big picture.

The blue stuff is just virga or flurries when the air mass is dry. Need green in the situation.

Dont you like the uw radar?

[HighlandExperience]

[TT-SEA]

Dont you like the uw radar?

Not as much.

[ShawniganLake]

I have a feeling we’re gonna have a snowless night here

In esquimalt? Odds of accumulating snow tonight are probably close to 0.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Hopefully that circles back to Vancouver. YVR has managed just 1 above average snow season since the big 08/09 winter.

 

DUE!

 

Current conditions at YVR, 37F with light rain. Not great.

[Esquimalt]

In esquimalt? Odds of accumulating snow tonight are probably close to 0.

Yeah I agree. I wouldn’t say things are incredible for you either honestly

[HighlandExperience]

Current conditions at YVR, 37F with light rain. Not great.

Wow. Vancouver is the new swamp

[TT-SEA]

One area of flurries is moving north into Seattle... another area rotating through out here. And not much else developing.

[Bryant]

Me too... and its a mile from my parents house so its helpful for me to see their weather.

They live up Barkley Blvd?

[El_Nina]

I prefer wet snow.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah I agree. I wouldn’t say things are incredible for you either honestly

I have set my expectations extremely low. Not a good setup for the South Island. I would be surprised if anything accumulated here. It’s chilly though, 33F, but I doubt we see much, if any, precip

[TT-SEA]

They live up Barkley Blvd?

 

At the east end of Barkley.