February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensemble mean bottoms out at -8.1C Monday morning now. Pretty impressive airmass for late February. Looks like some cooler members now in that 26-28th timeframe, but after that a strong signal for near normal 850mb temps. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

No reason to not be skeptical at this point.

[Requiem]

Of course, all a long way out. Going by the trends the GEM will probably be right (screwing over southern areas).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No reason to not be skeptical at this point.

 

Well everything after Sunday keeps shifting from run to run. The Tuesday-Thursday timeline is especially turbulent. The operational was about 1-2C above the mean during that timeframe. There are 4 members below -10C at PDX on Wednesday the 27th.

[MossMan]

The view from my kitchen this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The view from my kitchen this morning.

 

I think I have more snow on the ground than you now. 

[Perturbed Member]

FV-3 is more in line with the GFS. Brings the low in and dissipates it a little further south even...Puts up some Krazy sno #'s. 

 

 

 

 

Would really help even things if this verified but it will probably all shift about 250 miles north in the coming days. 

[Bryant]

Given the borderline situation today I find this hard to believe, but the 3km WRF shows 6" falling in the next 24 hours here. Assuming models are over estimating this area given the higher elevation hills surrounding us

[Bryant]

I think I have more snow on the ground than you now.

 

Did this comment make you feel good?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Did this comment make you feel good?

 

SO GOOD. 

[Jesse]

Yuge improvement on the 12z GFS ensembles.

 

[MossMan]

I think I have more snow on the ground than you now.

Yeah not much left in the front, the back yard is still completely covered however.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through late tomorrow morning per the 12Z ECMWF...  

 

 

[Jesse]

GFS ensemble mean bottoms out at -8.1C Monday morning now. Pretty impressive airmass for late February. Looks like some cooler members now in that 26-28th timeframe, but after that a strong signal for near normal 850mb temps.

 

There is actually a lot of spread in the long range. So not really a strong signal either way. The mean just averages out to slightly below normal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There is a small glacier coming off the shop roof. The leaning well cover was knocked over and broken during the wind event back in January, I need to replace it this spring...

 

This pic was from 730am this morning. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Given the borderline situation today I find this hard to believe, but the 3km WRF shows 6" falling in the next 24 hours here. Assuming models are over estimating this area given the higher elevation hills surrounding us

 

The NAM seems to think this system is going to be pretty juicy. It's showing 2'+ in parts of the Northern Oregon Cascades, which seems a bit overdone...

 

NAM also shows about 10-14" of snow here with that system, while the EURO is a more realistic 4-6". 

[Jesse]

There is a small glacier coming off the shop roof. The leaning well cover was knocked over and broken during the wind event back in January, I need to replace it this spring...

 

This pic was from 730am this morning.

 

 

Looks like there’s a lot left on the table.

[MossMan]

There is a small glacier coming off the shop roof. The leaning well cover was knocked over and broken during the wind event back in January, I need to replace it this spring...

 

This pic was from 730am this morning.

 

Slam your door really hard, that should get the glacier to drop!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO guidance is probably 3-4 degrees to cool for the Willamette Valley today. Temps at SLE and PDX are already at their predicted highs. Mid-40s are a better bet.

[HighlandExperience]

12z Euro not looking as snowy through Sunday morning compared to 00z.

 

Although it'd be hard to be snowier than that run.

Mind posting

[Geos]

Yeah not much left in the front, the back yard is still completely covered however.

Opposite here. Wish we were getting that snow that we initially saw today and tomorrow to ensure the anow cover streak continues another week.

[ShawniganLake]

Block looking pretty top heavy on the Euro. Looks like it might undercut further north.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much less snowy for the Seattle area through Sunday morning.    The 00Z run showed 6 inches in Seattle by Sunday morning... this run shows about an inch or even less and that is with marginal temps.  

 

It shows 42 on Saturday... 31 on Saturday night for a low... and then 42 again on Sunday.     That is warmer than the 00Z run.    

 

Waiting for Monday to update now... could be more snowy that day.  

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Block looking pretty top heavy on the Euro. Looks like it might undercut further north.

 

Wow... what a change by day 7.    Undercutting complete already.    Totally different than the runs yesterday.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow... what a change by day 7.    Undercutting complete already.    Totally different than the runs yesterday.

 

 

Pretty similar to the 12z run on Sunday.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty similar to the 12z run on Sunday.

 

Then it goes off the rails... completely different by Tuesday.

 

Might be an overrunning event up here that morning but the warm air already pushing in on this run.  

[ShawniganLake]

Incoming

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows about 3 inches of 35-degree snow on Tuesday morning in Seattle.  

 

And 45-degree rain by late morning.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z EURO is about the same or slightly cooler with temps over the weekend in NW Oregon...Will be much warmer for next week given the undercutting.

 

12z Yesterday

 

PDX

45/34

45/30

 

SLE

44/34

44/32

 

EUG

45/35

44/34

 

12z Today

 

PDX

44/33

43/30

 

SLE

44/33

43/31

[TT-SEA]

Still not too shabby.

 

That total snow map through Monday night has to be overstated.   Most of the snow falls when its above freezing in the Seattle area.   

 

And it will jump way up when Tuesday morning is included.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Basically all the operational models show some degree of undercutting. 

 

The GFS and FV-3 undercut further south and keep Washington cold with possible snow in NW Oregon/SW WA. The ICON is kind of in the middle and the GEM and EURO bring the undercutting low further north with much milder air.

[TT-SEA]

Seattle is just about to 50 by next Wednesday on the 12Z ECMWF.   

[HighlandExperience]

Seattle is just about to 50 by next Wednesday on the 12Z ECMWF.

The next seven days will be the last gasp of winter for us. Hope we can end on a high note!

[Christensen87]

Seattle is just about to 50 by next Wednesday on the 12Z ECMWF.   

 

So crazy how different than GFS and FV3 that show it very cold next week. Ugh. 

[Geos]

Still not too shabby.

Wish the resolution was better because my location did better than expected on the last event.

[MossMan]

Seattle is just about to 50 by next Wednesday on the 12Z ECMWF.

Spring Melt-A-Thon to commence on Wednesday! Or it’s still snowing depending on the model. Going to be fun to watch all of this unfold!

[Blizzard777]

There is a small glacier coming off the shop roof. The leaning well cover was knocked over and broken during the wind event back in January, I need to replace it this spring...

 

This pic was from 730am this morning. 

 

A free snow awning!

[TT-SEA]

The next seven days will be the last gasp of winter for us. Hope we can end on a high note!

 

Per the 12Z ECMWF... every day is in the low to mid 40s in Seattle for the next 7 days with the exception on Monday which is in the upper 30s.   

 

I don't think any snow that falls will be around very long if its correct.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Having any faith in the models past day 4 right now is wishful thinking. Really surprised how much the euro is flip flopping.

[TT-SEA]

Having any faith in the models past day 4 right now is wishful thinking. Really surprised how much the euro is flip flopping.

 

 

Me too.  

 

Undercutting can always bring surprises.