February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[FroYoBro]

Per the 12Z ECMWF... every day is in the low to mid 40s in Seattle for the next 7 days with the exception on Monday which is in the upper 30s.   

 

I don't think any snow that falls will be around very long if its correct.  

 

 

I mean it is late February now. Hard to expect snow to stick around in the lowlands either way. 

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully none at all!

I thought you liked snow? I guess I was wrong.

[ShawniganLake]

The westerlies don't break thru for long on the Euro.

[MossMan]

Hopefully none at all!

Are those aliens trying to peek in on the 12z model suites?

[MossMan]

Remember how pathetic this winter had been and was looking just one month ago today! If you don’t, here was a reminder from DJ!

[TT-SEA]

Still can snow at sea level during the day in March.

 

And April.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The EURO has been lost in the wilderness for about 2 weeks now. Lord GFS leading the way. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looking into the vacation homes of Hawaii for the Heatmiser.

I know that dude.

[TT-SEA]

Do you know how many peoples lives are destroyed by snow, millions. Why am I going to root for weather that only causes suffering and misery. I've been burning drums of diesel on my backyard to accelerate the warming we need for year round temps in the 60s and 70s. Your welcome.

Good man.

[Jesse]

EPS should be telling.

[TT-SEA]

EPS should be telling.

Stuck at day 4 on WB. Should be through day 10 by now.

[Esquimalt]

NAEFS continues to have a strong cold signal for the 8-14 day period, just like it has for the past month.  

 

 

[Jesse]

Stuck at day 4 on WB. Should be through day 10 by now.

I picture you on a warm, sunny patio surrounded by gently swaying palm trees, sipping a strawberry daiquiri, laptop out, feverishly hitting refresh on the EPS site and muttering prayers and incantations for warmth.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really interested to see what Lord GFS does. In comparing the the 00z ensembles to the 12z the 25-28th time period was much cooler with more extreme cold members on the 12z.

[TT-SEA]

I picture you on a warm, sunny patio surrounded by gently swaying palm trees, sipping a strawberry daiquiri, laptop out, feverishly hitting refresh on the EPS site and muttering prayers and incantations for warmth.

I agreed to work from 8-10 a.m. here each day because a co-worker had a death in the family. So yeah. Been working since 7 a.m. actually. Hope to finish soon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Doing a little February research...Yesterday Salem matched February 1989 by recording its 16th straight sub-50 high.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I agreed to work from 8-10 a.m. here each day because a co-worker had a death in the family. So yeah. Been working since 7 a.m. actually. Hope to finish soon.

 

I always work a few hours a day when on vacation. A good way to save up vacation days...

[Omegaraptor]

No reason to not be skeptical at this point.

It’s eight days out.

[TT-SEA]

I always work a few hours a day when on vacation. A good way to save up vacation days...

That is a one advantage.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is currently 43 at SLE, unlikely they hit 50 today, but I will not assume. EURO guidance has them at 46 on Thursday and Friday before nudging down to the low to mid 40s over the weekend. Thursday the chances they hit 50 are pretty low, maybe an outside shot Friday as EURO guidance has EUG at 49 that day, so perhaps if a stronger than expected southerly flow develops ahead of the next front.

 

Here are the longest sub-50 streaks at SLE in February dating back to 1892. 

 

1) 1936 - 20

2) 1932 - 19

2) 1923 - 19

4) 1929 - 18

5) 1956 - 17 (28/29 days in February 1956 had sub-50 highs at SLE.)

6) 2019 - 16

6) 1989 - 16

8) 1993 - 15

8) 1949 - 15

10) 1933 - 13

 

Some other recent years with streaks

 

2018 - 11

2014 - 10

2011 - 7 

2006 - 8

1990 - 10

1985 - 10 

[seattleweatherguy]

You and I can agree on one thing, remote work is enjoyable.

I agree with that as well! But it's not steady enough for me.

[TT-SEA]

 

[Deweydog]

Haha. It’s 44 at PDX.

[ShawniganLake]

[Esquimalt]

image.png

Wow looks like febuary 2014. A little different then previous EPS runs. 

[MossMan]

Cold rain! Brrr.

[FroYoBro]

Haha. It’s 44 at PDX.

 

 

Only 42 here. What a bunch of losers!

[TT-SEA]

image.png

What does 850mb temps look like in that period?

 

Also... what does it show around day 7?

 

WB not updating.

[Jesse]

EPS isn’t quite as agressive or far north with the cutoff as the operational from hour 168 onward, but still gets there.

 

Unfortunately for southerners this is feeling a lot like the setup a week or so ago, where the Fraser gets a good blast of low level cold setting the Puget Sound up for a nice overrunning event, with lows tracking to the north of Portland. Once models latch on to this sort of solution it seems pretty normal to have things trend north.

 

Of course I would love to be wrong. Was really hoping for a regional arctic airmass like the runs last night were hinting at.

[Deweydog]

Only 42 here. What a bunch of losers!

WC is 40, mind you.

[FroYoBro]

EPS isn’t quite as agressive or far north with the cutoff as the operational from hour 168 onward, but still gets there.

 

Unfortunately for southerners this is feeling a lot like the setup a week or so ago, where the Fraser gets a good blast of low level cold setting the Puget Sound up for a nice overrunning event, with lows tracking to the north of Portland. Once models latch on to this sort of solution it seems pretty normal to have things trend north.

 

Of course I would love to be wrong. Was really hoping for a regional arctic airmass like the runs last night were hinting at.

 

 

Yeah, I have to agree. These things usually happen in bunches and I have a hard time believing this round will suddenly be south. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just feels like another miss. Going to be a pretty unmemorable winter for EUG. Still better than it was looking in Jan tho. Got some below normal temps. Might be the one of the longest stretches EUG has had with below normal winter temps and almost no snow.

[Jesse]

Just feels like another miss. Going to be a pretty unmemorable winter for EUG. Still better than it was looking in Jan tho. Got some below normal temps. Might be the one of the longest stretches EUG has had with below normal winter temps and almost no snow.

Did you see Wx_Statman’s great post putting the December 2013 event in perspective last night?

[Requiem]

Did you see Wx_Statman’s great post putting the December 2013 event in perspective last night?

I would have loved to experience the 2013-2014 winter in the South Valley. Better than anything in the last ten years here in PDX as a whole.

[Perturbed Member]

I would have loved to experience the 2013-2014 winter in the South Valley. Better than anything in the last ten years here in PDX as a whole.

 

Feb 2014 was very good even for PDX. Easily one of our top events in the last 20 years. 

[ShawniganLake]

What does 850mb temps look like in that period?

 

Also... what does it show around day 7?

 

WB not updating.

[Esquimalt]

image.pngimage.png

Does what the EPS shows bode well for an overrunning event here? 

[ShawniganLake]

Does what the EPS shows bode well for an overrunning event here?

Early next week? Looks good for someone in southern BC or Washington

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Did you see Wx_Statman’s great post putting the December 2013 event in perspective last night?

 

Yes.  Wish I had been here instead of enduring an ice storm in Texas during that week.  Naturally I miss the most impressive Arctic airmass to hit the region in the 30 years I live here.

 

Feb 2014 was the last really solid snowstorm I experienced.  EUG has had a good decade so they are due for a crappy one now.

[Esquimalt]

Early next week? Looks good for someone in southern BC or Washington

Yeah, Monday or Tuesday.  Do you think we could see another big event to close out the winter here in Vic?