February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[BLI snowman]

EPS isn’t quite as agressive or far north with the cutoff as the operational from hour 168 onward, but still gets there.

 

Unfortunately for southerners this is feeling a lot like the setup a week or so ago, where the Fraser gets a good blast of low level cold setting the Puget Sound up for a nice overrunning event, with lows tracking to the north of Portland. Once models latch on to this sort of solution it seems pretty normal to have things trend north.

 

Of course I would love to be wrong. Was really hoping for a regional arctic airmass like the runs last night were hinting at.

 

I'm guessing that will trend north and east and screw everyone aside from the Vancouver metro, where they've been screwed. 48 degree rain down here.

[MossMan]

Ugly rainy day. Let’s get the white stuff falling from the sky again!

[Phil]

Welp..looks like rhe 12z Euro nukes Boston with 3 feet of snow and 80mph winds. Would f**king suck if they somehow pulled off another snowier than average winter at the last second.

 

Hopefully tomorrow morning’s death band gives us some breathing room.

 

That’s my OT rant for the day.

[Front Ranger]

Still can snow at sea level during the day in March.

It can also snow AND accumulate on a day that reaches the 40s.

[Front Ranger]

I'm guessing that will trend north and east and screw everyone aside from the Vancouver metro, where they've been screwed. 48 degree rain down here.

Vancouver metro has done alright in the past week or so.

[Cloud]

It can also snow AND accumulate on a day that reaches the 40s.

Yup. I don't think many people believe in or know evap. cooling as long as the DP remains at or below freezing. The only downside to something like this is that once the moisture passes, it warms back up to the 40s and melts everything.

[Front Ranger]

Yup. I don't think many people believe in or know evap. cooling as long as the DP remains at or below freezing. The only downside to something like this is that once the moisture passes, it warms back up to the 40s and melts everything.

Yeah. It's not unreasonable to hope for accumulating snow in the lowlands this time of year. But you're asking for a lot to hope it sticks around long.

 

Feb 2018 and Feb 2011 especially were exceptional events for how late in the month they occurred. You'll only find a handful of late February/early March events in the past 100 years that featured widespread accumulating snow in the lowlands, that also stuck around for awhile in some places.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

D**n the 18z is snowy for the sound sunday and monday.

[Christensen87]

d**n the 18z is snowy for the sound sunday and monday.

 

I saw that, PLEASE VERIFY! 

[BLI snowman]

Vancouver metro has done alright in the past week or so.

 

Still less than virtually everyone else between Olympia and the border. Good chance they clean up a little bit.

[Requiem]

I saw that, PLEASE VERIFY!

 

As long as it’s somewhat snowy for NW OR.

[Jesse]

As long as it’s somewhat snowy for NW OR.

Maybe you should start looking at models yourself rather than providing whiny commentary on the interpretations of others.

[Deweydog]

Maybe you should start looking at models yourself rather than providing whiny commentary on the interpretations of others.

Sun/ice burn!!!

[MossMan]

d**n the 18z is snowy for the sound sunday and monday.

The GFS has been fairly consistent with showing this now for the last few runs...let’s hope for a snowy end of the weekend!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z GFS looks like its about halfway to caving to the EURO and ending the party by the middle of next week. Makes sense. Has to end eventually.

[Cloud]

18z GFS looks like its about halfway to caving to the EURO and ending the party by the middle of next week. Makes sense. Has to end eventually.

It’s been a hell of a party.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking ahead on the 12z CFS it looks like some cold air impacts the region as we head towards mid-March.

 

[Blizzard777]

On my trip North scattered snow on the ground appeared just south of Tumwater where the Minion gas tank is. Olympia still had two inches at least in the shaded areas and as for home only my snowpiles remain.

Currently 41* and glooomy

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 is much drier after Saturday and then takes the undercutting low way south into California. Moisture barely makes it as far north as Salem. Consequently much colder air works its way in from the north. I suppose this is still possible though the trend seems to be north and with a big warm up.

 

[Jesse]

Looking ahead on the 12z CFS it looks like some cold air impacts the region as we head towards mid-March.

 

Tim just choked on his poi.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z ensembles are taking a big jump after Monday.

[Deweydog]

4-19-08 redux???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4-19-08 redux???

 

We can prey.

[Christensen87]

18z GFS looks like its about halfway to caving to the EURO and ending the party by the middle of next week. Makes sense. Has to end eventually.

 

And then there's FV3...haha

[Requiem]

Maybe you should start looking at models yourself rather than providing whiny commentary on the interpretations of others.

Random rant, sorry, not the best day ever today.

[Jesse]

God, people really do hate me, don’t they? Don’t even know why I say anything. Just a stupid person who obsesses about pointless things like the weather.

Just some friendly advice. I don’t hate you. Have actually been quick to defend you for your love of stormy weather and the idiotic attacks centered around your age/generation.

 

The whining about everything just gets old. We already have one TWL.

[MossMan]

18z ensembles are taking a big jump after Monday.

Ugh. Better start working on my mower.

[Requiem]

Just some friendly advice. I don’t hate you.

I know you don’t, everything you said was 100% true. I just can’t stop whining when other people get snow, it’s stupid. Snow doesn’t even matter that much, shouldn’t get so riled up about it.

[Cloud]

Says the one who inserts his little commentary into everything. But yeah, hate on me, seems to be the popular option. God, people really do hate me, don’t they? Don’t even know why I say anything. Just a stupid person who obsesses about pointless things like the weather.

Don't take everything as a "hate you" -- People go to this forum to share their input on the models. You can come to your own conclusion once you analyze them.

[Jesse]

Ugh. Better start working on my mower.

I would only be worried about that comment if it came from someone who had a history of consistently reporting facts.

[Cloud]

I know you don’t, everything you said was 100% true. I just can’t stop whining when other people get snow, it’s stupid. Snow doesn’t even matter that much, shouldn’t get so riled up about it.

I mean, correct me if I'm wrong but the only reason you get jealous or riled up about it is because you want to be out of school on snow days correct? Whereas, some of us here enjoy the cold and snow for a whole different reason. Believe me, things like this won't even matter once you don't have to deal with school anymore. 

[Phil]

Random rant, sorry, not the best day ever today.

I see you edited your post. FWIW, he’s right.

 

Learning how to read/analyze the models yourself will help you become a more independent thinker, because you will eventually start picking up on trends and recognizing patterns (after a few years of consistent observation). Plus since you’re young and your brain is still developing, opening up these cognitive conduits to pattern recognition now might help you become a better professional forecaster in the future (there is experimental research supporting this possibility), assuming that is the route you choose to take after high school. Who knows, you might end up with an advantage over your competition.

[Requiem]

I mean, correct me if I'm wrong but the only reason you get jealous or riled up about it is because you want to be out of school on snow days correct? Whereas, some of us here enjoy the cold and snow for a whole different reason. Believe me, things like this won't even matter once you don't have to deal with school anymore.

The snow itself is also something I love, and the snow day aspect definitely adds to the zeal!

[Deweydog]

I see you edited your post. FWIW, he’s right.

 

Learning how to read/analyze the models yourself will help you become a more independent thinker, because you will eventually start picking up on trends and recognizing patterns (after a few years of consistent observation). Plus since you’re young and your brain is still developing, opening up these cognitive conduits now might help you become a better professional forecaster in the future (there is experimental research supporting this possibility), assuming that is the route you choose to take after high school. Who knows, you might end up with an advantage over your competition.

Aren’t you like 10 minutes older than him?

[kokaneekidz]

Hey Mossman, Kokanee over here (Jeremy) I was wondering if you are getting graupel over there now. The radar shows a mean convergence band setting up around the Bryant exit. Is it coming down good?

[Jesse]

Aren’t you like 10 minutes older than him?

Born burn!!!

[Bryant]

I know you don’t, everything you said was 100% true. I just can’t stop whining when other people get snow, it’s stupid. Snow doesn’t even matter that much, shouldn’t get so riled up about it.

We're all here because we share a passion for weather. Doesn't matter if you're 16 like yourself or 30 like myself. I know we have many members that are older as well. I've been known to have meltdowns on here when the weather isn't going my way, so I get it. My wife can literally tell when I'm in a bad mood because of the weather. Sh*tty thing is, it is truly quite difficult for us all to score. If you're cold and snowy, I'm most likely dry and quite cold, which is definitely not my favorite. If I'm getting a nice snowstorm however, you're most likely too warm for snow, and you have to watch what feels like EVERYONE else score, even though it's just a portion of the forum.

 

My advice would be to take this down time to study and learn as much as you can. Jumping to conclusions before looking at the models yourself, as you did earlier, will result in people giving you a hard time. People on here have no problem helping, but you have to put in some work as well.

 

For the record, it's been 33-34° all day with steady non accumulating snow, with a very visisble snow line just a couple hundred feet above us. Quite brutal

[Requiem]

I see you edited your post. FWIW, he’s right.

 

Learning how to read/analyze the models yourself will help you become a more independent thinker, because you will eventually start picking up on trends and recognizing patterns (after a few years of consistent observation). Plus since you’re young and your brain is still developing, opening up these cognitive conduits to pattern recognition now might help you become a better professional forecaster in the future (there is experimental research supporting this possibility), assuming that is the route you choose to take after high school. Who knows , you might end up with an advantage over your competition.

Agreed!

 

See, I can be decently fun when I’m not being overly irrational.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All the South Valley moaning...I would mention overall December 2013 was the 2nd coldest December on record at EUG.

 

It was the coldest December on record for Medford and the 5th coldest month all-time at that station. Period of record 1928-present. 

 

It appears it was also the coldest December on record at Grants Pass 1893-present.

[Phil]