February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[seattleweatherguy]

Total snow for the weekend per 00Z ECMWF. Highs in the low to mid 40s across all of the lowlands on Sunday... 43 in Seattle.

 

At least we get something. Hope for more on the next runs

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows Monday being dry... would not expect that based on the 500mb pattern. Highs between 44-46 in the Seattle area.

[TT-SEA]

Overrunning snow on Tuesday... highs only in the mid 30s from Portland northward. Will post map soon when WA updates.

[Jesse]

Euro still on board with the undercut. Although I would say this run is a step toward the GFS compared to the 12z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overrunning event shown on Tuesday. By 4pm it is 57 at EUG 43 SLE 33 PDX. Shows about over by then.

[luvssnow_spokane]

THE END!

 

 

[Jesse]

Progression between hour 144 and 192 on the Euro is pretty funky. Pattern almost looks like it could reset with more cold dropping in by 192!

[TT-SEA]

THE END!

 

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Ironically shows 2 inches of snow in Seattle and 4 inches in Portland that day. Looks suspicious with the warm upper levels.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Overrunning snow on Tuesday... highs only in the mid 30s from Portland northward. Will post map soon when WA updates.

Euro still on board with the undercut. Although I would say this run is a step toward the GFS compared to the 12z.

Overrunning event shown on Tuesday. By 4pm it is 57 at EUG 43 SLE 33 PDX. Shows about over by then.

Nice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro still on board with the undercut. Although I would say this run is a step toward the GFS compared to the 12z.

 

Would you rather have unprecedented sustained late season cold or 4" of sloppy snow that melts in 6 hours?

[Jesse]

Ironically shows 2 inches of snow in Seattle and 4 inches in Portland that day. Looks suspicious with the warm upper levels.

That map is for the afternoon. Upper levels are colder early on.

[GHweatherChris]

But, but, the EPS!

[Jesse]

Would you rather have unprecedented sustained late season cold or 4" of sloppy snow that melts in 6 hours?

I would take either over neither, which is what the 12z Euro showed.

[GHweatherChris]

Would you rather have unprecedented sustained late season cold or 4" of sloppy snow that melts in 6 hours?

Both!

 

But I would choose the former personally this late in the season since I enjoy watching a good snowfall from start to finish!!

[TT-SEA]

That map is for the afternoon. Upper levels are colder early on.

Most of the snow in the Seattle area is in the afternoon and evening. Strange.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would take either over neither, which is what the 12z Euro showed.

 

You have a point.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Jesse]

Most of the snow in the Seattle area is in the afternoon and evening. Strange.

Looks like cold upper levels hold on longer up there.

[luvssnow_spokane]

But, but, the EPS!

The EURO has spoken.

[Requiem]

Very nice trends on the EURO tonight. Wonderful cold east wind signal for PDX on the 26th-27th, followed by (what I assume) is a nice little transition event. The only issue is getting stuff to stick on the ground. Perhaps winter isn’t over for the area quite yet...

 

And yes, I did look at the models with my own eyes instead of relying on interpretation, proud of me? (Baby steps guys, baby steps.)

[HighlandExperience]

Most of the snow in the Seattle area is in the afternoon and evening. Strange.

Mind posting the snow map

[Jesse]

Mind posting the snow map

It won’t snow without one!

[TT-SEA]

But, but, the EPS!

 

Has been showing ridging building in by the middle of next week for many runs.     That is why I was doubting the ECMWF run last night.  

[TT-SEA]

Low 50s and party sunny in Seattle next Wednesday per the 00Z ECMWF.

 

Some upper 50s in SW WA by Thursday on this run.  

[Requiem]

So, if I’m not mistaken, the jet may turn on after all this arctic air retreat and the block erodes slightly, bringing in some more typical springtime weather (and storms). Or I could be all wrong and know jack, which is also fine (I’m open to explanation!)

[HighlandExperience]

It won’t snow without one!

Nope

[MikeInEverett]

I’m ready for 50s and sunshine.

 

Some windshield splats here. Lots of cold rain in the last 24 hours!

[Requiem]

I do think that storms which feature a nice robust east wind in PDX are a lot more interesting and fun than the ones without.

[TT-SEA]

Overrunning snow event totals for next Tuesday... most of this falls with a temp around 35 or 36 in Seattle.

 

[Deweydog]

Would you rather have unprecedented sustained late season cold or 4" of sloppy snow that melts in 6 hours?

Yes please!!!

[Requiem]

Overrunning snow event totals for next Tuesday... most of this falls with a temp around 35 or 36 in Seattle.

 

Thanks for all these. I hope you’re enjoying your vacation!

[TT-SEA]

Some rain by the end of the week... and rain even in the mountains by then.   

[HighlandExperience]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Overrunning snow event totals for next Tuesday... most of this falls with a temp around 35 or 36 in Seattle.

 

 

 

Nice, it shows an ice storm for PDX Metro too.

 

[Requiem]

Nice, it shows an ice storm for PDX Metro too.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022000_150_5618_155.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022000_156_5618_155.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022000_162_5618_155.png

Ouch. 2014 flashbacks. Definitely would do a number on trees and maybe power.

[Deweydog]

Nice, it shows an ice storm for PDX Metro too.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022000_150_5618_155.png us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022000_156_5618_155.png us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022000_162_5618_155.png

For what it’s worth, ice storms are almost completely unheard of by the end of February.

[Requiem]

For what it’s worth, ice storms are almost completely unheard of by the end of February.

Of course, stranger things have happened!

[TT-SEA]

What is this... 10,000 foot snow levels?    <_>

 

 

[Deweydog]

Of course, stranger things have happened!

Expect the unexpected!!!

 

#ninoclimo

#januaryjustinsezwinterisOVER

[Front Ranger]

North Bend area about to get smacked with CZ.