2/23 - 2/24 Central Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[DSM WeatherNut]

GFS does not align with current watches per NWS thinking.  Not saying that won't change, but they obviously look at more than model snowfall predictions.  That said if any of the models nail this one it would be impressive.

[St Paul Storm]

At least the 3km NAM bumped north from 18z.

[mlgamer]

18z models and 00z NAMs have been inching the snow farther away from me. $#!+

[East Dubzz]

Can someone tell me what the heck I’m looking at with that NAM run... what problems is it having?

I haven’t been able to look at it in depth, but my guess is that it has it faster and weaker, resulting in it being further south. But don’t quote on me on that.

[CentralNebWeather]

That's ridiculous. I'm not that far from you and I've seen flurries. Radar has shown moderate snow for the last hour and we barely have a flake reaching the ground here.

Roads are bad. Was huge flakes when we got back from Grand Island. Really started snowing hard 10 miles north of Holdrege as we went south.

[Madtown]

From the weather authority in the Northwoods...They actually are pretty good

 

I am staying just on the west fringe of that 12 to 18!

[jaster220]

LOL worthy

 

 

Potential ship sinker on the lakes here.

 

975 is what the storm dropped to that sunk the Fitzgerald.  

 

Couldn't help but think how adding a "1" in front of the 9 seems very appropriate 

[jcwxguy]

Rdps

[jaster220]

Seems like to me... they have a difficult forecast. This is their current line of thinking, but they know that it may change. Combine that with other factors such as some ice potential and strong winds.. well all of a sudden a watch makes sense. I mean, it’s labeled “watch” for a reason, and a watch covers a vast area of things. It doesn’t take much snow for a blizzard, so they’re also covering their ground on that.

 

Not sure how anyone could be upset with them for their work as of right now. They probably are trying to cover their bases. What’s so wrong with that? Would you rather them jump to an incorrect conclusion?

 

You mean, like my office has done all winter?? 

[jcwxguy]

GFS stays put

[jcwxguy]

Talk about riding the edge

[jcwxguy]

Fv3 vs gfs. Fv3 actually shifted southeast a little

[ToastedRavs]

Gfs has the low a lot further south and SW compared to the 12z run. Over KC compared to over Chariton Iowa at 6pm Saturday. Maybe beginning of nudges down to SE a bit? Something to watch

 

It actually continues the trend of having the low weaker, at 0z Sunday (Saturday 6pm). Down a MB each of past 3 runs now. Which obviously would tend to a more southern track.

[East Dubzz]

Gfs has the low a lot further south and SW compared to the 12z run. Over KC compared to over Chariton Iowa at 6pm Saturday. Maybe beginning of nudges down to SE a bit? Something to watch

 

It actually continues the trend of having the low weaker. Down a MB each of past 3 runs now. Which obviously would tend to a more southern track.

Ehh, I think the track is the same, just has more of an elongated SLP.

[Stormhunter87]

Wow grided output for here is going 0.1+ for ice then 7 inches. If that plays out going to have a bad time here.

[ToastedRavs]

Canadian also a weaker low, 995 at 0z. Really strengthens from 0z to 6z. I think this may be a trend. Doesn't bomb out til later....means SE trend for KS, NE and western Iowa, definitely further SE than GFS. Keeps many of our posters in heaviest band...save SE of Des Moines. Whole different story, aka blizzard for Wisconsin and MN.

[jcwxguy]

Cmc

[jaster220]

Wording I don't get to see every day in my forecast

 

 

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...High winds are forecasted to combine with occasional snow
and falling temperatures to potentially lead to widespread
impacts for the area. Westerly winds could gust over 60 mph.
Blowing snow could potentially lead to near whiteout conditions.
Accumulations of up to 3 inches are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west
central Michigan.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...An increased risk for tree damage and
widespread power outages exists with this storm. Plan on
difficult travel due to poor visibilities...slick roads and high
winds.

 

 

While their focus is certainly the high wind potential, they've busted bad at least twice in SWMI this winter as the 94 corridor has been hit with LES death-bands. All the models did a horrible job with the last bombing storm that came through. Most had a few inches per the maps, when 3 to 4 times those amounts fell in the hardest hit areas. Not saying this happens again but it's possible they're hedging their bets against it. I'll add that the globals actually show a stronger signal than that prior storm but getting a good LES streamer to form and hold together inland is a delicate balancing act. Too much wind for example may not allow it time to properly form. Guess I'll be watching trends. Nice to feel like I'm "in the game" for a change.

[jaster220]

Canadian also a weaker low, 995 at 0z. Really strengthens from 0z to 6z. I think this may be a trend. Doesn't bomb out til later....means SE trend for KS, NE and western Iowa, definitely further SE than GFS. Keeps many of our posters in heaviest band...save SE of Des Moines. Whole different story, aka blizzard for Wisconsin and MN.

 

Something that happened with the last strong Low as well. May be a theme with this pattern attm

[jaster220]

What I wouldn't give to have this wording for my area

 

 

 

Travel will become very difficult if not impossible Saturday
night through Sunday night. Stay tuned to future forecasts for
additional details as that time period approaches.

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie SE

[jcwxguy]

Ukie SE

wish we had temp profiles

[Grizzcoat]

Maybe more E than S, but definitely not NW

[ToastedRavs]

Ukie SE

At this rate maybe the Gfs will catch on by Saturday morning!

[OmahaSnowFan]

wish we had temp profiles

Still looks good for Omaha assuming good temperatures!

[gabel23]

I have never seen probabilistic forecast be this far off! Just insane, not sure if anybody has seen this but I use it a lot. I have never seen a range like this before.......

[Stormhunter87]

Wow if the ukie plays out and 10:1 ratios 12-15 inches

[East Dubzz]

Ukie seems a little faster than the previous run, no? Also seems quite a bit weaker with the SLP.

[Grizzcoat]

Yep-tad faster. More CAA which drives the storm. Snow pack?

[Grizzcoat]

Doesn't get wrapped up until further E

[jcwxguy]

Of note the euro ensembles have slowly shifted southeast,at least what's what I heard

[jcwxguy]

Rgem shifted southeast some

[gabel23]

Rgem shifted southeast some

Further north west than the ukie and crushes my area. I'm gonna be riding the edge big time; I have all the models on my side besides the nam. I would think I should be good for at least a couple inches.  

[Grizzcoat]

King Euro is C.Ia's hero. Most consistent.

[jcwxguy]

Euro

[Grizzcoat]

Not as jackpot, just very little rain compared to GFS. Infrastructure can't handle 1" of rain now. Go Euro!!

[East Dubzz]

DVN mentioned the possibility of thunderstorms here. If we are indeed going to get a lot of rain, I do hope we get some rumbles of thunder out of it

[clintbeed1993]

Really angers me how narrow that heavy band is in Nebraska.  2 counties wide max.  Would be really nice to NOT get missed to the east for the 10th time

[snowstorm83]

EPS has a 6-7" bullseye right through Omaha/Lincoln. Though there's still a fair amount of variance between the 51 members, especially for only 36-48 hours out. Models still don't know what's going on. 

[DSM WeatherNut]

Exciting to take guesses at what may occur because human nor model will never get it close enough forecasting such a narrow intense band, but if your a lucky one who is in it then it will be freakin cool AF.