March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Maybe in general... but not with weather.   

 

When the weather gets stuck in one pattern for a long time... you really appreciate the change when it comes.   

 

You were in Hawaii for 2 weeks just recently. I was lead to believe it was a bit warmer there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 22 now. Might have a new low for the day before midnight. 

[snow_wizard]

Different setup. I’d argue that on multiple fronts this setup, while not very impactful on the west side, is more impressive on a macro level.

 

Well said.  This cold air is invading from the east which makes it considerably more difficult to reach the Puget Sound area.  Even at that we are managing to see sub freezing / extremely dry winds.  It will also be interesting to see how tomorrow night night fares when the winds die out.  We will have clear skies, extremely dry air, cold mid levels, the hole 9 yards to get really cold.  This event really impresses me, especially when you consider it's been cold for a full month already.

[Deweydog]

Well said. This cold air is invading from the east which makes it considerably more difficult to reach the Puget Sound area. Even at that we are managing to see sub freezing / extremely dry winds. It will also be interesting to see how tomorrow night night fares when the winds die out. We will have clear skies, extremely dry air, cold mid levels, the hole 9 yards to get really cold. This event really impresses me, especially when you consider it's been cold for a full month already.

Surface-driven high pressure (cold core) is usually fleeting with a shelf-life of about 24 hours at this point. The longevity of what’s happening in the basin is pretty unreal. At this point it’s a surface/upper level hybrid.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is there a chance we knock a couple degrees off the high at PDX tomorrow since they will be starting out a bit lower tomorrow morning? Or are we on the downslide with the outflow?

[Phil]

The first week still has the ability to produce actual winter weather.

No freaking way! Really?!?!?!?!

[Deweydog]

Is there a chance we knock a couple degrees off the high at PDX tomorrow since they will be starting out a bit lower tomorrow morning? Or are we on the downslide with the outflow?

Four more minutes of sunshine.

[snow_wizard]

European models still seem to like the idea of snow this week.  I like how the ECMWF acknowledges the dry air over King County and shows that being moistened Wednesday afternoon before a more vigorous batch of moisture moves in during the evening.  A wetter system than the recent one that got eaten up.

 

Also looks like Wednesday has a shot at putting up some pretty good minus departures.

[snow_wizard]

Is there a chance we knock a couple degrees off the high at PDX tomorrow since they will be starting out a bit lower tomorrow morning? Or are we on the downslide with the outflow?

 

 

Really good question.  I was wondering that myself earlier.  My guess is 2 degrees lower than today.

[Jesse]

Really good question. I was wondering that myself earlier. My guess is 2 degrees lower than today.

It would be nice to see them pull something sub-40 just to do the airmass justice. Best bet is probably Wednesday.

[snow_wizard]

Amazingly the ECMWF shows 850s sustained in the -7 to -8 range from hour 102 to hour 138 on the latest run.  The beat rolls on!

[snow_wizard]

It would be nice to see them pull something sub-40 just to do the airmass justice. Best bet is probably Wednesday.

 

Wednesday has a very good shot.  I also think the lows on Tuesday will do the air mass serious justice.

[snow_wizard]

EURO has a 47/23 and 49/21 at SLE next Sunday and Monday.

 

The average low temps for the first third of this month could be pretty eye popping.  I don't see a day in the next week that isn't likely to have low temps below freezing.  This is pretty awesome.

[snow_wizard]

SEA improved on their low temp by 1 degree.  Their dp is zero now.  Never seen that in March before.

[TT-SEA]

SEA improved on their low temp by 1 degree.  Their dp is zero now.  Never seen that in March before.

 

And yet it did not even go below freezing there on the day.    People in Montana and Minnesota would kill for a 47/33 day.  

[Perturbed Member]

00z Euro shows that PDX may have ~.35 in of precip out of the Wednesday low. Quite a bit better than the last week system. UKMET is in the .20-.30 range and ICON .40-.50. GFS/FV3/GEM/NAM are still thinking no precip but generally trending wetter and stronger with the low. 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/web_ECMWF_Text_00z_EntireRun.jpg

[Deweydog]

It’s sad to think that John Ritter wasn’t around to experience this February/March combo...

[snow_wizard]

The freezing power of this wind is insane.  I had a pan of water outside with no ice on it and now after just a few hours of temps in the 30 to 32 range the ice on top is so thick I can't even crack it by pounding on it.  The low dp makes the air effectively much colder than it really is.

[ShawniganLake]

All of the outflow areas in BC, west of Hope, are above freezing tonight. The air is sure dry though. Some of the numbers from the east side are pretty incredible.

[snow_wizard]

00z Euro shows that PDX may have ~.35 in of precip out of the Wednesday low. Quite a bit better than the last week system. UKMET is in the .20-.30 range and ICON .40-.50. GFS/FV3/GEM/NAM are still thinking no precip but generally trending wetter and stronger with the low. 

 

Little doubt much of whatever moisture there is will fall as snow.  How often can you say that in March?  D**n I'm loving this.  Please let this be our new climate.

[Deweydog]

Little doubt much of whatever moisture there is will fall as snow. How often can you say that in March? d**n I'm loving this. Please let this be our new climate.

This was our climate six weeks ago.

[snow_wizard]

All of the outflow areas in BC, west of Hope, are above freezing tonight. The air is sure dry though. Some of the numbers from the east side are pretty incredible.

 

Really puzzling why the outflow isn't colder in the lower Fraser Valley.  The numbers further up are quite impressive.  It could be there is just too much easterly gradient to allow the really cold stuff to come down..

[snow_wizard]

This was our climate six weeks ago.

 

I guess I should have said I hope this is more common now with the more favorable solar cycles we are seeing.

[ShawniganLake]

Really puzzling why the outflow isn't colder in the lower Fraser Valley. The numbers further up are quite impressive. It could be there is just too much easterly gradient to allow the really cold stuff to come down..

I would assume so. Those easterly gradients usually end up pretty underwhelming in the Fraser Valley. We actually benefit more over here usually. Getting in on the dry air, but at the same time often protected from the wind.

 

Currently 24F here.

[snow_wizard]

I'm so tired of having to cut off good political dialogue just because it's political. Please bring back the politics thread.

 

I agree.  We may have to try again.  There is jut too much to talk about.

[Jesse]

00z Euro is a solidly cool run. Maybe a small hint of some shortwave ridging moving in toward day 10.

[TT-SEA]

All of the outflow areas in BC, west of Hope, are above freezing tonight. The air is sure dry though. Some of the numbers from the east side are pretty incredible.

 

Tonight does not feel too cold here.   Maybe I am just used to temps below freezing now and I am not factoring in that its early March.   Or maybe because there is still snow on the ground so seeing ice is not really impressive.   Its been re-freezing and melting every night and day here for 2 weeks now.   Also no frost due to the dry air... that is nice for those with cars parked outside like my kids.

[snow_wizard]

I would assume so. Those easterly gradients usually end up pretty underwhelming in the Fraser Valley. We actually benefit more over here usually. Getting in on the dry air, but at the same time often protected from the wind.

 

Currently 24F here.

 

It's really interesting where I live.  The east winds can either be really bad or really good depending on the situation.  In this case they are good.  In general though I prefer the northerly gradients and vicious Fraser outflow.  Usually much better for snow here.

[Deweydog]

Really puzzling why the outflow isn't colder in the lower Fraser Valley. The numbers further up are quite impressive. It could be there is just too much easterly gradient to allow the really cold stuff to come down..

This is a backdoor job, plus (and I may be wrong) snowcover may not be as uniform. This most recent run has been pretty eh for the Okanogan Valley compared to the basin.

[snow_wizard]

00z Euro is a solidly cool run. Maybe a small hint of some shortwave ridging moving in toward day 10.

 

I'm loving the prospects for outstanding average low temp numbers for the first third of the month.  We are really on a roll.

[Perturbed Member]

Little doubt much of whatever moisture there is will fall as snow.  How often can you say that in March?  d**n I'm loving this.  Please let this be our new climate.

 

Yeah I still keep finding myself wondering if I'm just being ridiculous tracking a potential snow event here in March. These things just don't work out here this late in the season and having a cold east wind also just doesn't happen in March usually. The fact that precip is the limiting factor for us on Wednesday and not temps says enough about how crazy this is. 

 

I sure hope this pattern is somehow tied into the low solar. Probably wishful thinking but it sure would be nice if our climate could stay more like this for a while. 

[snow_wizard]

This is a backdoor job, plus (and I may be wrong) snowcover may not be as uniform. This most recent run has been pretty eh for the Okanogan Valley compared to the basin.

 

Very good point.  Omak has been strangely mediocre with this event.  The other day I was looking at web cams for the northern border of Central and Eastern WA and there was one town that had no snow on the ground.  I couldn't believe it as cold as they've been.  Everything was just dead and brown.

[TT-SEA]

00z Euro is a solidly cool run. Maybe a small hint of some shortwave ridging moving in toward day 10.

 

00Z EPS still warms us up after day 10... hopefully its turns wet as well.     Below normal for the next week at least is already a given. 

 

Here is day 12:

 

[Perturbed Member]

06z NAM, big steps towards team euro. 

 

[Jesse]

This is a backdoor job, plus (and I may be wrong) snowcover may not be as uniform. This most recent run has been pretty eh for the Okanogan Valley compared to the basin.

Okanogan valley feeds into the basin. The Fraser Valley is a whole other animal and is not connected to the Okanogan or Columbia. I’m assuming there’s snow in the Fraser interior. I think it’s more about the trajectory of the airmass as you said. The huge out of season snowpack combined with the trajectory is really helping push things into crazy territory down here.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah I still keep finding myself wondering if I'm just being ridiculous tracking a potential snow event here in March. These things just don't work out here this late in the season and having a cold east wind also just doesn't happen in March usually. The fact that precip is the limiting factor for us on Wednesday and not temps says enough about how crazy this is. 

 

I sure hope this pattern is somehow tied into the low solar. Probably wishful thinking but it sure would be nice if our climate could stay more like this for a while. 

 

The chances are actually decent this is because of solar.  That's what's so exciting about it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z Euro shows that PDX may have ~.35 in of precip out of the Wednesday low. Quite a bit better than the last week system. UKMET is in the .20-.30 range and ICON .40-.50. GFS/FV3/GEM/NAM are still thinking no precip but generally trending wetter and stronger with the low.

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/web_ECMWF_Text_00z_EntireRun.jpg

This late Winter cold/snow snap has been insane and I couldn't think of a better way for it to end then to get something like what the EURO shows. For early March, freezing or below high temperatures with 2-3 inches of sticking snow would be epic.

[Jesse]

00Z EPS still warms us up after day 10... hopefully its turns wet as well. Below normal for the next week at least is already a given.

 

Here is day 12:

 

Definitely cooler than this morning’s cherry. Nice improvement.

[snow_wizard]

Getting close to dropping below 30 now.

[snow_wizard]

Definitely cooler than this morning’s cherry. Nice improvement.

 

Cherry?