March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Requiem]

Good sign!

Good sign? (Sarcasm?)

[FroYoBro]

This initial band was never supposed to make it to Portland. 

[Front Ranger]

Was thinking the same thing earlier.

 

You and I have one of your prize sheep riding on this, so the steaks are high...

 

Mark Nelsen says mutton for you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Coldest March on record nationally. 

 

Silver Falls hit 19 with that cold wave, which is one of their latest sub-20 lows on record. Looks like it was an extremely dry month with only 1.75" of precip at Silver Falls (Average is about 9"). Lots of 60/27 type days. 

[Perturbed Member]

It is far too early to say anything is over, and the low is incredibly convective. I'm really trigger-happy when it comes to calling busts too early, but I think we should give it some time.

 

Wasn't being serious.

[Requiem]

Wasn't being serious.

 

Oh, sorry, you know my sarcasm meter is basically broken on the internet haha

 

My mistake

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think Yev is about to go double or nothing with our bet...He's really liking these 00z runs! I hear the RGEM is splendid.

[Jesse]

This initial band was never supposed to make it to Portland.

STFU

[MossMan]

30! And snowflakes have appeared on my weather station! Done deal!

[GHweatherChris]

30! And snowflakes have appeared on my weather station! Done deal!

Our weather stations match OMG!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RGEM through 00z tomorrow.

 

RGEM 4pm Wednesday-4pm Thursday

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

RGEM: Really Gay and Embarrassing Model

[Perturbed Member]

30! And snowflakes have appeared on my weather station! Done deal!

 

 

Why does Washington always get all the fun?! Looks like the low is coming in about 400 miles north of where it was modeled to go and 12 hours early. Sigh

[Perturbed Member]

GEM through 7 AM Thursday. Them Canadians are always so generous with their snow. Through the same period the GFS has about an inch and the cold/snow loving FV3 has about 2. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through tomorrow evening at 7 p.m. per the WRF... and precip with the first round is already ending by that time even in WA.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RGEM: Really Gay and Embarrassing Model

 

It's like the only model showing snow so I thought you would appreciate it.

 

Along with it's parent the GEM.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Good sign!

Tim 2.0. ...

[Requiem]

It's like the only model showing snow so I thought you would appreciate it.

 

Along with it's parent the GEM.

And the EURO? And the NAM? And the HRRR (to some extent)?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Update down in Eugene.

 

NWS Portland@NWSPortland

 

8 PM | Temperatures in the Eugene area are dropping to freezing, which means rain will turn to freezing rain. Road temperatures may be above freezing now, but once they drop, a glaze of ice is likely to accumulate. Rain will stay light, but any ice quickly makes things slick.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSPortland/status/1103146724179300352

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting to see it raining right now in La Grande, John Day, and K-Falls while we track snow chances for the metro area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Update down in Eugene.

 

NWS Portland@NWSPortland

 

8 PM | Temperatures in the Eugene area are dropping to freezing, which means rain will turn to freezing rain. Road temperatures may be above freezing now, but once they drop, a glaze of ice is likely to accumulate. Rain will stay light, but any ice quickly makes things slick.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSPortland/status/1103146724179300352

 

Geez that sucks. I saw EUG was down to 33 on the hour. Eugene just got absolutely hammed with freezing rain on 12/14/16. 

 

Looking at the OBS it looks like any location between 500'-2000' in the Eugene area is 27-32 degrees. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Interesting to see it raining right now in La Grande, John Day, and K-Falls while we track snow chances for the metro area.

 

Not really.

[Jesse]

Interesting to see it raining right now in La Grande, John Day, and K-Falls while we track snow chances for the metro area.

 

Portland can only get snow when the rest of the region is suffering. Facts of life.

[epiceast]

Interesting to see it raining right now in La Grande, John Day, and K-Falls while we track snow chances for the metro area.

These places torch frequently, and don't much better snow wise than deep basin locations. Especially John Day. Always finds a way to get downsloped or be the center of the advancing warm nose towards Pendleton/Walla Walla.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Geez that sucks. I saw EUG was down to 33 on the hour. Eugene just got absolutely hammed with freezing rain on 12/14/16.

 

Looking at the OBS it looks like any location between 500'-2000' in the Eugene area is 27-32 degrees.

Yeah, the GFS shows ice for them overnight with them staying below freezing through at least 4am. With the heavy snow and now the ice, their getting one heck of a late season Winter weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These places torch frequently, and don't much better snow wise than deep basin locations. Especially John Day. Always finds a way to get downsloped or be the center of the advancing warm nose towards Pendleton/Walla Walla.

 

Yeah John Day always gets down sloped. They have actually done pretty well overall this winter though. Prairie City 500' higher and 15 miles further east does WAY better for snow and winter weather. The high part of the Strawberry Range protects them from from the south wind and they get cold air pooling in the upper John Day valley there. 

 

All-time record low at Pendleton and John Day was on the same day. 1/27/1957. -24 at JD, -22 at PDT. 

 

John Day's all-time low is pretty weak for 3100' in NE Oregon.

[MossMan]

Our weather stations match OMG!!

The WRF can kiss my a**.

[MossMan]

Portland can only get snow when the rest of the region is suffering. Facts of life.

Blair was my favorite.

[El_Nina]

Total snow through tomorrow evening at 7 p.m. per the WRF... and precip with the first round is already ending by that time even in WA.

 

The color key is cropped out.

[MossMan]

29.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And the WRF says the big winner is....

 

 

EUGENE!

[El_Nina]

Mark with the ROAST

[Requiem]

Mark with the ROAST

Huh?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And the WRF says the big winner is....

 

 

EUGENE!

Lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38/29 day at Roseburg today. The other day they bumped up to 40 at 5pm, so today was actually their 3rd sub-40 high in March in the 1899-present period of record. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

John Day has switched back to snow on the hour. 

[Timmy]

John Day has switched back to snow on the hour.

so you’re saying there’s a chance???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

so you’re saying there’s a chance???

 

Well we shall see. The upper levels continue to warm for about the next 5-6 hours. Then they cool dramatically. Your location will probably do pretty well tomorrow night with those snow showers. 

[Timmy]

40-20f sitting at 30f now. Round day!

[MossMan]

28.