March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I thought Mark's cold bias came back in February. I mean for God sake he put a high of 28 at PDX in his 7-day based on one Euro run. And he lives at elevation near the gorge, I think if he hated snow he would have moved by now. 

 

It's pretty hilarious someone would think I care whether or not it snows up here tonight., I've had more than my share, time for PDX to score. 

 

But full disclosure I do have a $20 bet with Yev that PDX will not see accumulating snow. Not because I don't want them too, just not seeing it. Hope I am wrong for ya'll!

[TT-SEA]

He is appealing to the masses...and the masses do no like snow or any weather that might disrupt their daily lives.

 

 

I think the masses would be more pissed if he lied to them when he knew a snowstorm was coming... he might make them feel better for a couple hours and then they would think he is an idiot the next day.

 

So I am sure his main goal is to be as accurate as possible.   

[Guest CulverJosh]

So what?

 

His feelings have absolutely no impact on what will happen in your backyard.    I guarantee it!  

 

I know that.  You are missing the point.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

44/19 here today. Currently 35 under cloudy skies. 

[umadbro]

I do enjoy watching people get upset over something as stupid as a forecasters body language.  I know for a fact there are more pressing issues.  Like the mariners missing out on the playoffs for what will be their 18th straight season. 

 

With that said, Looks like it'll be mainly too warm for snow tonight. Soundings look like cold rain, maybe some brief ZR.  

[Jesse]

He has a tendency to get pissy when it is this scenario.  Cold onshore flow scenario, he gets real cheery and tries to undermine PDX.  I know what he is doing.

We all

Do.

[TT-SEA]

I know that.  You are missing the point.  

 

 

No... I am just giving you sh*t for saying this:

 

"He really lets his personal feelings get in the way with any chance of snow."

 

His feelings don't get in the way with any chance of snow there... that is not possible.   

[Guest CulverJosh]

I do enjoy watching people get upset over something as stupid as a forecasters body language.  I know for a fact there are more pressing issues.  Like the mariners missing out on the playoffs for what will be their 18th straight season. 

 

With that said, Looks like it'll be mainly too warm for snow tonight. Soundings look like cold rain, maybe some brief ZR.  

 

I am not upset, not at all.  I say these things because I know Mark and I know how he has changed over the years.  And, yes, I agree about the Mariners, another rebuild.

 

And it will not be too warm overnight.  Precip will be the mitigating factor.

[Guest CulverJosh]

No... I am just giving you sh*t for saying this:

 

"He really lets his personal feelings get in the way with any chance of snow."

 

His feelings don't get in the way with any chance of snow there... that is not possible.   

 

 

Ok, let me reword it.  He really lets his personal feelings get in the way with how he feels about any chance of snow.  

 

Happy now?  LOL

[Blizzard777]

47/21

Currently 42*

Dew point 19*

NNW wind gusting to 17

And some high amber colored clouds to my SW

[Deweydog]

This is getting DEEP.

 

Like our snow depth by tomorrow afternoon.

[Jesse]

Another gorgeous sunset.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Why don't we all just agree we have received more surprises when it comes to snow than any other weather phenomenon.  Well, Tstorms may be right up there as well, but it seems like our biggest snows are always a surprise.  

 

I've seen more snow surprises in my 41 years here than I can remember.  When things are on the edge, why not wishcast for what you want?  We aren't held to the same criticism as people on tv.   So let me backtrack a little.  I understand where Mark is coming from but I do still agree he has a warm bias.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just wanted to post this here...about 30 inches of snowpack still on Mt.Constitution on orcas island absolutely spectacular! Was an amazing hike about 3-6 inches above 1000’ and over 2’ above 2000’ in elevation. Just looking at the forecasts now hopefully can see a little bit of snow tomorrow night that would be cool even if it melts really fast

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00Z NAM 3KM has moisture reaching PDX Metro by 4am/5am.

 

[MossMan]

I think the masses would be more pissed if he lied to them when he knew a snowstorm was coming... he might make them feel better for a couple hours and then they would think he is an idiot the next day.

 

So I am sure his main goal is to be as accurate as possible.

I’m talking about his “described attitude” over his actual forecast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Apparently Elkton, OR will be without power for at least 2-3 more weeks after last Sunday's snowstorm dropped 18" of wet snow there. At elevation 100' along the Umpqua River I am willing to be they hadn't seen that much snow since January 1969.

[Deweydog]

The pink means heavy snow right?

[FroYoBro]

The pink means heavy snow right?

I was just about to make a comment. Gorgeous sky once again tonight.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I’m talking about his “described attitude” over his actual forecast.

 

 

Exactly!!!  It's about his attitude towards it.  He is generally pleased when the snow won't pan out.  And acts annoyed when it may accumulate.  

 

Keep your personal opinions out of your forecast on TV and be diplomatic.  He doesn't do that anymore.

[Deweydog]

I was just about to make a comment. Gorgeous sky once again tonight.

You know the old saying: “red sky at night, sailors convinced the models are completely underestimating snowfall amounts and coverage”

[TT-SEA]

Ok, let me reword it.  He really lets his personal feelings get in the way with how he feels about any chance of snow.  

 

Happy now?  LOL

 

 

Much better!

 

I am sure he cares more about being right than his personal feelings.   It does no good to pretend its not coming if its really coming.    He has to be on the air again tomorrow and people will remember what he said the day before.  

[Guest CulverJosh]

You know the old saying: “red sky at night, sailors convinced the models are completely underestimating snowfall amounts and coverage”

 

"red sky at night, it snows overnight"

[Perturbed Member]

This is getting DEEP.

 

Like our snow depth by tomorrow afternoon.

 

STFU

[Deweydog]

"red sky at night, it snows overnight"

Hey, that rhymes!

[snow_wizard]

Going to be interesting to see how tomorrow and tomorrow evening play out.  Looks to be plenty of moisture in play and the ECMWF continues to shows 925mb temps dropping to -2 during the early evening in the Seattle area.  Sure looks like a decent part of the precip will fall as snow for people who have any kind of elevation at all.  One of the more interesting things shown on the ECMWF is temps dropping to the mid 30s in the late afternoon.  I'm really intrigued by the situation being shown later Thursday night and Friday morning.  Certainly cold enough for snow and the models like the idea of decent pecip amounts for the Central Puget Sound.  

 

Meanwhile I had a 49 - 24 temperature range today.  The 24 ties the coldest I have recorded here in the month of March in nearly 20 years.

[Jesse]

This is getting DEEP.

 

Like our snow depth by tomorrow afternoon.

What is your official forecast?

 

Less learned minds want to know.

[Requiem]

As long as the moisture gets here, my location is already cold enough for snow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So what?

 

His feelings have absolutely no impact on what will happen in your backyard.    I guarantee it!

 

No totally true. If he had the money and felt like he wanted to pay someone to seed the clouds to make it snow more technically his feelings could effect the outcome.

[Perturbed Member]

Exactly!!!  It's about his attitude towards it.  He is generally pleased when the snow won't pan out.  And acts annoyed when it may accumulate.  

 

Keep your personal opinions out of your forecast on TV and be diplomatic.  He doesn't do that anymore.

 

Yeah Mark makes it pretty clear he is rooting for no snow. Does make it more fun when the forecast busts in our favor though. It was pretty amusing watching Mark on 1/10/2017 when he started to realize his 1-4 inch snow forecast was going to massively bust. 

[Deweydog]

STFU

Euro shows a high of 50 tomorrow at PDX. Along with 14 inches of snow.

[Esquimalt]

NAM continues to trend west. Even my area is into the action now.

[Deweydog]

What is your official forecast?

 

Less learned minds want to know.

Really wanna no?

[Guest CulverJosh]

As long as the moisture gets here, my location is already cold enough for snow.

 

Temps don't matter one bit overnight even at sea level.  I could care less what the temp is right now.  The DP is 16.   That's some dry shyt to overcome.  

 

Nevertheless, flakes should be falling after midnight.  May even be some convergence happening.  Mid/Upper level winds look to be S/SW if Andrew is to be believed.  And, yes, I am too lazy to check.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I have another theory.

 

Blazers win tonight then PDX gets widespread 2-4".

 

BOOK IT!!!!!!

[Perturbed Member]

NAM continues to trend west. Even my area is into the action now.

 

 

Yeah the precip comes quite a bit further west on the 00z NAM.

 

Snowiest run down here from it.

 

 

 

Quite a solid band of snow tomorrow afternoon, still don't buy it sticking though.

 

[MossMan]

Had a low of 23 and a high of 44. Currently 33.

[GHweatherChris]

47/19 spread here, 3rd low in the teens the last 6 weeks.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Washington County does have one advantage. It doesn't get east winds as often as Portland and eastwards.

 

Looking forward to the return of moisture.

 

They say Portland has a wet climate, meanwhile I'm comparing it to Denver and Phoenix. Haven't seen a raindrop in five days. Not wet enough for me...

Yeah, I have a feeling you might do better than me in the morning. I don't feel like driving out to Hillsboro in the morning so I'm hoping to weasel my way out of work.

[Requiem]

Yeah, I have a feeling you might do better than me in the morning. I don't feel like driving out to Hillsboro in the morning so I'm hoping to weasel my way out of work.

I think I might have a chance to do okay as well. I’ll take a rare March accumulating snowfall, thank you very much!