March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[MikeInEverett]

Precip starts dying down right as the snow is really starting to stick. Hopefully will see some CZ activity overnight into the morning or on Friday morning.

[MossMan]

How do you always get so lucky? I didn't have nearly enough moisture for anything like that today.

Northern Snohomish Co with a little elevation is sure a snow magnet!

[BLI snowman]

I would imagine areas closer to the river did a little better. I don’t wanna ask poor Justin.

 

Got a quick dusting this morning, otherwise been a lot of 35 degree sloppy stuff. Hopefully the onshore flow works a little better for areas away from the river, it usually is.

[Jesse]

Yeah, March 4, 1960 is the current latest 35 or lower maximum for the PDX POR.

They are holding at 33 now with ESE winds.

[Requiem]

1-3 inches in many areas over here (though only a dusting on the roads). The gradient of snow and rain was very sharp in terms of elevation, as soon as one got over 300 ft the flakes were sticking on surfaces (though roads were mostly untouched below 500 ft).

[Perturbed Member]

Haven't heard much from westsiders. Wonder how they are faring.

 

I had a sparse dusting on colder surfaces initially as the band rolled in but all melted by early noon as temps kept climbing. Most places out here in the mid to upper 30s now with zero sign that snow ever fell. 

[Deweydog]

Got a quick dusting this morning, otherwise been a lot of 35 degree sloppy stuff. Hopefully the onshore flow works a little better for areas away from the river, it usually is.

Tomorrow morning might be ok.

[HighlandExperience]

The GFS, FV3, and to a lesser extent the ECMWF all like the idea of significant snow shower activity in my area late tonight and early tomorrow morning. This is a perfect sceanrio for this area with WSW flow causing showers to train off of the Olympics into at least the southern half of the East Puget Sound Lowlands. No question the air mass is cold enough also with it currently snowing lightly here.

I’m sure Mossman will be an island of 12 inches

[MossMan]

I’m sure Mossman will be an island of 12 inches

I’m up to 3” so far!

[BLI snowman]

Tomorrow morning might be ok.

 

Friday too. Maybe a bit of a March 8-10, 2006 style event.

[El_Nina]

Yea there's 2 cutoffs for this one. At 300 ft it begins to stick to non road surfaces and at 500 it begins to stick to roads too.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I hate how the tv weather people say its fortunate that snow wont stick. In my mind it is very unfortunate.

[Deweydog]

Friday too. Maybe a bit of a March 8-10, 2006 style event.

That thing was a beast.

 

The stuff on the evening of the 8th was fun. Post-frontal bands of snow with 20-30 mph west winds.

[Andrew.]

Glad you bought at elevation now?!

Very much so! Makes a world of a difference, if only I shot for 1,500 feet instead! But I wanted to be close to downtown for work so this is just about the best I could do for the area. Love it up here!

[Requiem]

I hate how the tv weather people say its fortunate that snow wont stick. In my mind it is very unfortunate.

Granted, they are speaking for the general public, most of whom have things to do tomorrow. But many members of the public can also be happy with snow and take a rest day.

[Phil]

I think the PDX observer is giving more frequent intrahour updates to appease us, haha.

 

Last one at 6:16pm has them at 34/31. Not sure how they could spike another 2 degrees this late in the insolation cycle.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KPDX

[Phil]

00z 3km NAM shows things drying out fairly quickly behind the front tonight but does show a band moving through the Central Sound tomorrow morning.

 

More snow at Tim’s house!

[Perturbed Member]

Very much so! Makes a world of a difference, if only I shot for 1,500 feet instead! But I wanted to be close to downtown for work so this is just about the best I could do for the area. Love it up here!

 

Doesn't it suck to be in Multnomah county though? Seems the property taxes are kind of gross.

 

I'm looking for property that is 1000ft or higher but probably needs to be WA county. I can't believe I'm even thinking of making potential property investment decisions based on snow prospects. All non weather geeks think I'm a total loony. 

[snow_wizard]

I’m sure Mossman will be an island of 12 inches

 

This situation tonight is really good for the ESPL.  The trajectory and coldness of the air mass are totally in our favor.  Interestingly the ECMWF still likes Friday morning more than tomorrow so we'll see.  The NWS seems to be buying off on snow tomorrow morning.

[TT-SEA]

I think the PDX observer is giving more frequent intrahour updates to appease us, haha.

 

Last one at 6:16pm has them at 34/31. Not sure how they could spike another 2 degrees this late in the insolation cycle.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KPDX

 

 

Temp was held down by precip during the day.    We have seen temps rise many times in the evening after stratiform precip moves out and the flow switches from offshore to onshore.   Not saying it will happen this time... but this is a common set up for it to happen.

 

The wonders of our maritime climate.   It is pretty common here to warm up after a cold front passage.     

[Geos]

Snow slowly sticking on grass now

 

Too bad it shut off. 0.1" here - at 33*.

[snow_wizard]

00z 3km NAM shows things drying out fairly quickly behind the front tonight but does show a band moving through the Central Sound tomorrow morning.

 

 

Every model shows that feature.  I like our chances.

[Jesse]

I think the PDX observer is giving more frequent intrahour updates to appease us, haha.

 

Last one at 6:16pm has them at 34/31. Not sure how they could spike another 2 degrees this late in the insolation cycle.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KPDX

A shift to onshore (south or SSW) winds could technically do it. It wouldn’t have anything to do with insolation, just a change in the surface airmass.

[snow_wizard]

Just like that SEA puts up another much below normal max temp with 40 degrees.  They were -8 for the daily average and are running -5 for the month.  It just keeps going!

[Omegaraptor]

Sandy seems like a good climate. 75” of rain a year and plenty of snow. Does it avoid the east wind and freezing rain garbage that Cascade Locks gets?

 

BTW, Portland is -20/-8 for today.

[Jesse]

Temp was held down by precip during the day. We have seen temps rise many times in the evening after stratiform precip moves out and the flow switches from offshore to onshore. Not staying it will happen this time... but this is a common set up for it to happen.

 

The wonders of our maritime climate.

I think that sort of thing is common in a variety of climates.

[TT-SEA]

I think that sort of thing is common in a variety of climates.

 

 

Phil should understand it then.   

[snow_wizard]

Is anyone surprised the GFS ensemble shows another dip just before mid month now?  If this one goes like the others as the time frame narrows the valley on the 850 graph will get deeper and wider.

[TT-SEA]

I think that sort of thing is common in a variety of climates.

 

 

I actually thinks it warms up more often than not after a cold front passage here in the cold season.    Because there is usually an east wind ahead of a front and a SW wind behind a front.

 

This does apply to the warm season.

[HighlandExperience]

[Jesse]

I actually thinks it warms up more often than not after a cold front passage here in the cold season.    Because there is usually an east wind ahead of a front and a SW wind behind a front.

 

This does apply to the warm season.

 

Just depends on the setup. Its also pretty common to have southerly winds ahead of a cold from switching to cooler NW winds behind it. Usually what you are talking about involves some cold offshore flow being in the picture, which is probably less common than our typical storms.

[TT-SEA]

Just depends on the setup. Its also pretty common to have southerly winds ahead of a cold from switching to cooler NW winds behind it. Usually what you are talking about involves some cold offshore flow being in the picture, which is probably less common than our typical storms.

True. Probably depends on trajectory of incoming system too.

 

But warming up after a cold front passage is still very common here.

 

Same with Snoqualmie Pass.    My son hates that... they get tons of powdery snow and then the cold front comes through and it turns to rain and ruins the powder.    <_>

[Jesse]

Yeah. Ski area operators actually scour the maps every day worrying over snowpack destroying cold fronts.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah. Ski area operators actually scour the maps every day worrying over snowpack destroying cold fronts.

Its a very common problem for Snoqualmie Summit.

 

Likely because they benefit big time from easterly flow... but are quite low in elevation and susceptible to rain when the flow switches to onshore.

 

I did not say all ski areas. But the avid skiers at Snoqualmie know it all too well. There is usually a mad rush to get up there to ski in powder before the wind swtiches to onshore. Not all the time... but it happens frequently enough.

[Requiem]

Any possibility for some higher 300> ft snow showers tonight into tomorrow?

[Phil]

Phil should understand it then.

Yes Tim. We can warm 35*F/4 hours in the dead of night during warm advection from Midwest cyclones. It’s happened a few times this winter. I’m not an idiot.

 

The mesoanalysis there looks pretty blah, though. Weak gradients, no insolation, saturated boundary layer, and a shallow isothermal layer (perhaps weakly inverted). Not great for warm advection.

[Jesse]

Its a very common problem for Snoqualmie Summit.

 

Likely because they benefit big time from easterly flow... but are quite low in elevation and susceptible to rain when the flow switches to onshore.

 

I did not say all ski areas. But the avid skiers at Snoqualmie know it all too well. There is usually a mad rush to get up there to ski in powder before the wind swtiches to onshore. Not all the time... but it happens frequently enough.

 

Depends on how far you want to stretch things. Usually the cold offshore flow itself is an artifact of some sort of cold frontal passage several days before. The real killer for all ski areas are warm fronts, which should come as no surprise because those actually involve warmer air moving in in the mid levels and usually feature a more persistent moisture fetch as well.

[TT-SEA]

Depends on how far you want to stretch things. Usually the cold offshore flow itself is an artifact of some sort of cold frontal passage several days before.

OK.

 

Point is... its not uncommon for it to warm up here after a cold front passage. That is just a fact of life in this area.

[TT-SEA]

Depends on how far you want to stretch things. Usually the cold offshore flow itself is an artifact of some sort of cold frontal passage several days before. The real killer for all ski areas are warm fronts, which should come as no surprise because those actually involve warmer air moving in in the mid levels and usually feature a more persistent moisture fetch as well.

Ironically.... Snoqualmie Summit can be the best ski area in an warm front situation. They can stay snow for a long time while other more exposed ski areas have warmed up.

[Jesse]

OK.

 

Point is... its not uncommon for it to warm up here after a cold front passage. That is just a fact of life in this area.

 

Here in the northwest we warm up after cold fronts and cool down after warm fronts, dogs walk people and we wear hats on our feet.