March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sun coming out here in Salem now. Going to be interesting to see what happened at the house while I was at work today. My wife has been working too so I can't bother her to give me snow reports.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Santiam Park about 10 miles directly south of my house and 700' lower got a good dump this afternoon. As recently as 2pm this was mostly bare ground.

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/ORE22%20at%20Santiam%20Park%20EB_pid2993.JPG?rand=1551921359896

[Deweydog]

Flash freeze!!!

[El_Nina]

I think we're close to the same longitude.

Ah, that would explain our parallel conditions.

[TacomaWaWx]

Radar seems to show some echoes out along the OR/WA coast. When and if those are going to come ashore is still in question hopefully not too long

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Not an easy call. I’ve had a hard time picking out the pattern progression over the last month..the current pattern is sort of trying to self-perpetuate, which reminds me of what happened with the warm pattern after 2013. A newish RWB structure has manifested and those tend to stick around for awhile. Sometimes for many years.

 

Theoretically, it’s possible a warm pattern sets up in April/May but devolves into coolish/normalish/zonal pattern during the summer. Or another scenario is pattern instability through the warm season as wavelengths shorten and forcing displaced far away from the WPAC Warm Pool.

 

I don’t think spring/summer will follow your typical +ENSO climatology or expectations in general. The QBO timing and deep solar minimum are both unique as is the timing of the OKW return cycle relative to seasonality. That doesn’t mean it will be “cool” spring/summer (I don’t see that either due to the developing El Niño), but ironically, it might end up cooler and wetter than any of the last several years because of the niño tendency and cold WPAC, rather than the opposite.

FWIW my initial lean is this summer will be slightly cooler to average than normal based on some preliminary analogs I've looked at. Looking forward to another Summer Forecast Contest Year Four!

[seattleweatherguy]

Snow slowly sticking on grass now

[TT-SEA]

Radar seems to show some echoes out along the OR/WA coast. When and if those are going to come ashore is still in question hopefully not too long

Tomorrow morning... you have 12 hours to wait.

[TacomaWaWx]

Tomorrow morning... you have 12 hours to wait.

I’m just hoping before it gets too warm tomorrow is what I meant

[kokaneekidz]

Sticking very well here in Mukilteo now

[TT-SEA]

I’m just hoping before it gets too warm tomorrow is what I meant

Likely will be early morning.

[Jesse]

Another moderate band here before precip cuts off.

[TacomaWaWx]

Likely will be early morning.

yeah either way even if there is snow it’ll probably be no more than an inch on the grass unless your up on the hills from the water

[El_Nina]

Another moderate band here before precip cuts off.

[Jesse]

Another moderate band here before precip cuts off.

Three minute lag!

[Jesse]

Haven't heard much from westsiders. Wonder how they are faring.

[TT-SEA]

Haven't heard much from westsiders. Wonder how they are faring.

 

 

That is why there are traffic cams.   

[Omegaraptor]

Haven't heard much from westsiders. Wonder how they are faring.

 

No sticking snow. Not precipitating right now either.

[mtep]

Still coming down as snow in Bellingham. Got slight accumulation on the roads in places, especially around Lake Whatcom. What a wonderful surprise for today. 

[MossMan]

What an awesome day! 3” new snow and still snowing moderately!

[Jesse]

That is why there are traffic cams.   

 

Meh. I like hearing it from the horses mouth.

[TT-SEA]

Still coming down as snow in Bellingham. Got slight accumulation on the roads in places, especially around Lake Whatcom. What a wonderful surprise for today. 

 

Barkley Village looks very white...

 

[ShawniganLake]

Partly sunny here this afternoon. No snow. That’s it I’m moving!

[snow_wizard]

The GFS, FV3, and to a lesser extent the ECMWF all like the idea of significant snow shower activity in my area late tonight and early tomorrow morning.  This is a perfect sceanrio for this area with WSW flow causing showers to train off of the Olympics into at least the southern half of the East Puget Sound Lowlands. No question the air mass is cold enough also with it currently snowing lightly here.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Still coming down as snow in Bellingham. Got slight accumulation on the roads in places, especially around Lake Whatcom. What a wonderful surprise for today. 

Neighborhood street near the Britton Rd fire station has gone completely white over the last 20 minutes or so.  Temp has been sitting at 32 here since about 2.

 

Curious what the night will bring.

[snow_wizard]

What an awesome day! 3” new snow and still snowing moderately!

 

How do you always get so lucky?  I didn't have nearly enough moisture for anything like that today.

[Phil]

Latest 35 or lower on record there.

Really? Wow.

[MossMan]

The last of the live shots before dark.

[TacomaWaWx]

The GFS, FV3, and to a lesser extent the ECMWF all like the diea of significant snow shower activity in my area late tonight and early tomorrow morning. This is a perfect sceanrio for this area with WSW flow causing showers to train off of the Olympics into at least the southern half of the East Puget Sound Lowlands. No question the air mass is cold enough also with it currently snowing lightly here.

yeah definitely will be cold enough before tomorrow afternoon. Hoping i get some here too still uncertain though

[TT-SEA]

yeah definitely will be cold enough before tomorrow afternoon. Hoping i get some here too still uncertain though

 

South wind is going to going to kick in soon.... but ECMWF shows it does not warm up. 

[TacomaWaWx]

South wind is going to going to kick in soon.... but ECMWF shows it does not warm up.

there’s been some real light south wind here for a couple hours now

[FroYoBro]

Haven't heard much from westsiders. Wonder how they are faring.

 

I never got any sticking at all on the southside here. Beautiful flakes all day, but not even the bark dust could get any sexy action. 

[Jesse]

I never got any sticking at all on the southside here. Beautiful flakes all day, but not even the bark dust could get any sexy action.

That sucks. I was hoping the back edge gave you guys something.

[Deweydog]

Shady bark dust coverage here at the homestead!

[Jesse]

Shady bark dust coverage here at the homestead!

Pretty solid grass and barkdust coverage here. It’s even on the trees.

[FroYoBro]

That sucks. I was hoping the back edge gave you guys something.

 

I think your area probably did slightly better than most in the metro area (besides places with elevation). 

[Deweydog]

Pretty solid grass and barkdust coverage here. It’s even on the trees.

I would imagine areas closer to the river did a little better. I don’t wanna ask poor Justin.

[Jesse]

I would imagine areas closer to the river did a little better. I don’t wanna ask poor Justin.

I saw him log on then log back off about a half hour ago. A little worried.

[El_Nina]

About a half inch here, snow is wrapping up. Hopefully this doesn't all melt tonight.

[BLI snowman]

Really? Wow.

 

Yeah, March 4, 1960 is the current latest 35 or lower maximum for the PDX POR.