May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[Front Ranger]

Looking like this May will finish either 2nd or 3rd warmest at SEA.

 

OLM, on the other hand, probably won't finish warmer than 7th or 8th.

[Phil]

Furthermore, guidance is in universal agreement regarding the upcoming increase in the wavenumber across the Western Hemisphere. This is also a typical development as the MJO completes its orbit through the WHEM and re-emerges in the IO in M/J/J & mature +QBO.

 

Again, this tends to render long range ensemble means impotent and largely meaningless beyond D10, since any signals you get will arise via noise in a sea of waves rather than spatial congruency.

[Omegaraptor]

Note the warming West-Pacific Warm Pool SSTAs in advance of the MJO currently re-emerging in the IO/EHEM.

 

This has historically been a precursor to explosive convection over the warm pool during the subsequent MJO passage, which is another reason I believe there is risk of a western heatwave later in June or early in July (whenever forcing reaches the WPAC).

 

 

Of course, it’s not a background state this year with the sharpening EPAC meridional gradient/narrower z-cell regime over the long run, but that doesn’t preclude intraseasonal variability like the aforementioned.

 

How's the +ENSO looking? Chances it persists throughout summer and into fall/winter?

[TT-SEA]

Got here too late... loooooong back up for the boat launch.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 72 here now. No clouds anymore.

[TacomaWaWx]

Note the warming West-Pacific Warm Pool SSTAs in advance of the MJO currently re-emerging in the IO/EHEM.

 

This has historically been a precursor to explosive convection over the warm pool during the subsequent MJO passage, which is another reason I believe there is risk of a western heatwave later in June or early in July (whenever forcing reaches the WPAC).

 

 

Of course, it’s not a background state this year with the sharpening EPAC meridional gradient/narrower z-cell regime over the long run, but that doesn’t preclude intraseasonal variability like the aforementioned.

Bleh. Heat wave. Hopefully not I like the heat to stay in the 70s to low 80s.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

As long as we have fewer 90F+ days here, it's a start.

[BLI snowman]

As long as we have fewer 90F+ days here, it's a start.

 

Crazy to make it into June without one. Feels like 1954.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Crazy to make it into June without one. Feels like 1954.

50s and 60s weather here. Sounds like bliss.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still cloudy here but dry and pleasant. 62F

[GHweatherChris]

Still cloudy here but dry and pleasant. 62F

Exact same weather here.

[ShawniganLake]

Just a hint of a sea breeze here with a temp of around 80. Hard to beat that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only up to 60 this afternoon. Marine gunk never cleared out.

[TT-SEA]

Just a hint of a sea breeze here with a temp of around 80. Hard to beat that.

Still on the lake... pulled up to a private little beach in a cove and my daughter has found new friends here. Could not be more perfect. Right around 80... no clouds and no wind.

[jcmcgaffey]

Looking like this May will finish either 2nd or 3rd warmest at SEA.

 

OLM, on the other hand, probably won't finish warmer than 7th or 8th.

How far back do the OLM records go back?

[Guest CulverJosh]

Low sunspots

[Front Ranger]

How far back do the OLM records go back?

 

Just a bit further back than SEA. 1941.

[TacomaWaWx]

Beautiful day just got home from point defiance. 66 currently. West wind kicked in about 3pm and has been slowly picking up now it’s a breezy WSW wind coming in.

Was up to 73 but it seems like a marine push is underway a bit.

[MossMan]

Nice day!

[GHweatherChris]

Beautiful day just got home from point defiance. 66 currently. West wind kicked in about 3pm and has been slowly picking up now it’s a breezy WSW wind coming in.

Was up to 73 but it seems like a marine push is underway a bit.

It has been a marine push kinda day here all day, high of 62, this pattern is horrible...

[TacomaWaWx]

It has been a marine push kinda day here all day, high of 62, this pattern is horrible...

Winds were offshore this morning here but have switched to onshore here. Has been beautiful in the interior around the sound. Down to 64 now temps dropped off over the last few hours with the wind coming in off the coast.

[GHweatherChris]

Winds were offshore this morning here but have switched to onshore here. Has been beautiful in the interior around the sound. Down to 64 now temps dropped off over the last few hours with the wind coming in off the coast.

Just a bit of sun and hitting 70 would have been nice, yesterday was gorgeous.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Beautiful Memorial Day morning... already 60 degrees at 7:30 a.m.

What about the overnight low? Down here it was 49 F, coolest since March 22 as storm clouds cleared out overnight in what was already a very cold air mass. We got up to about 69 which is still pretty winter-like but feels much warmer in the strong May sun, especially compared to 62 F with a 5000 ft overcast blanket all day with damp air yesterday.

[TacomaWaWx]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still cloudy here in the s valley. Nice to have some cool and dry days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 58 after a high of 60. Looks like SLE hit 65, EUG 62.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What about the overnight low? Down here it was 49 F, coolest since March 22 as storm clouds cleared out overnight in what was already a very cold air mass. We got up to about 69 which is still pretty winter-like but feels much warmer in the strong May sun, especially compared to 62 F with a 5000 ft overcast blanket all day with damp air yesterday.

 

Oh you know his low was probably a little below normal in the mid 50s. 

[TT-SEA]

Perfect day...

 

[TT-SEA]

Oh you know his low was probably a little below normal in the mid 50s.

Looks like 78/52 in North Bend today... got up to 80 in Issaquah where we were on the boat

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like 78/52 in North Bend today... got up to 80 in Issaquah where we were on the boat

 

Crazy. Weird micro climate, or those must be really shallow lakes. You swim in lakes or rivers down here this time of year there is a good chance you end up dead. 

[TT-SEA]

Crazy. Weird micro climate, or those must be really shallow lakes. You swim in lakes or rivers down here this time of year there is a good chance you end up dead.

Lake Sammamish is pretty deep. Water temp was between 66-68 depending on location. Still cold... but lots of people were in the water around every parked boat.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lake Sammamish is pretty deep. Water temp was between 66-68 depending on location. Still cold... but lots of people were in the water around every parked boat.

 

Pretty amazing it is that warm already.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

South/north with the temps and cloudiness. Opposite of last year.

[Deweydog]

Low sunspots

High fructose corn syrup.

[TT-SEA]

High of only 58º today under low overcast. We could stay in this pattern all summer and both Tim and I would be happy!

Looks like the warmth will be shared a little bit more equally coming up.

[Anti Marine Layer]

I thought it was supposed to be 80 up there (in the PNW) for Memorial Day, so why was there a marine layer?

 

Not exactly summer-like here today, with mostly upper 60s and pretty windy, but it got mostly sunny, unlike yesterday and the sky was about as blue as it ever gets here (with no inversion to create any haze). Turned out to be a beautiful day after yesterday's dark, chilly, damp, dreary weather.

[TT-SEA]

I thought it was supposed to be 80 up there (in the PNW) for Memorial Day, so why was there a marine layer?

 

Not exactly summer-like here today, with mostly upper 60s and pretty windy, but it got mostly sunny, unlike yesterday and the sky was about as blue as it ever gets here (with no inversion to create any haze). Turned out to be a beautiful day after yesterday's dark, chilly, damp, dreary weather.

It was sunny and warm and very summer-like in the northern half of the PNW... the southern half was too close to the ULL over CA.

[ShawniganLake]

Hit a high of 83F here this afternoon. Pretty generous marine push kicked in late in the day. Breezy and 68 currently.

[ShawniganLake]

[TT-SEA]

Pretty amazing it is that warm already.

 

 

Just checked now that we are home and all unpacked... the main buoy in the middle of Lake Sammamish is at 66 right now.   But it was definitely warmer in the coves and near the beaches.   The highest temp I saw on our depth finder today was 69.   The maximum depth of the lake is 105 feet.

 

Not too unusual though... my kids have been swimming there most years by the middle or end of May.   The lake is usually in the mid to upper 70s for most of the summer.  It has been in the low 80s many times as well... usually after a hot spell.   It was in the low 80s for almost all of the summer of 2015.