June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

By the time we get to Friday, Shawnigan Lake will have received just 5.25” of rain in the past 4 months. And we are just now getting to what is typically the start of our dry season. There just hasn’t been any notable rainfall since the early February snowstorms.

 

The Cedar Lake station near me has had 19.58 inches of rain since March 1st.   Normal is just about 28 inches from March 1 - June 10 (and 30 inches for the March-June period).

 

So... only 70% of normal since the February craziness.     But no sign of dryness here yet.   

[ShawniganLake]

The Cedar Lake station near me has had 19.58 inches of rain since March 1st. Normal is just about 28 inches from March 1 - June 10 (and 30 inches for the March-June period).

 

So... only 70% of normal since the February craziness. But no sign of dryness here yet.

we would normally see close to 13.5” during that period. So about 40% of normal

[Guest CulverJosh]

Should be some good tstorm action here Wednesday per the AFD.

[BLI snowman]

Should be some good tstorm action here Wednesday per the AFD.

 

No real forcing for the lowlands. Foothills action only.

[Deweydog]

Should be some good tstorm action here Wednesday per the AFD.

One of those classic westerly flow warm core setups. Explosive.

[Guest CulverJosh]

No real forcing for the lowlands. Foothills action only.

Look at my location. Not Mt Scott anymore.

[TacomaWaWx]

we would normally see close to 13.5” during that period. So about 40% of normal

we’ve had 11.98” of rain on the year total. Hopefully if we get another ULL it actually produces some rain here instead of it all going into SW WA and the PSCZ. However the coast and SW WA were the center of the drought conditions so that’s good that it hit there.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 65 degrees here at 11am. Should be in the upper 70s today, mid 80s tomorrow and upper 80s Wednesday, which should end up being the warmest day of the year here easily. Warmest day so far is May 10th with an 81 degree high.

[TT-SEA]

For those tracking Wednesday... here is the new 12Z ECMWF for that afternoon:

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I’m betting it’ll be 85-88 here on Tuesday and Wednesday here. Nice thing about living within a mile of the sound during the summer cuts down the heat a few degrees.

Yeah, that's one of the advantages of living in Puget Sound. You can get some relief from the major heat the closer you get near water. Olympia looks like it could get to the mid 90s on Wednesday.

[Timmy Supercell]

Should be some good tstorm action here Wednesday per the AFD.

 

Still some mention of that too down in this region. Could be a widespread one for the PNW.

[Timmy Supercell]

No real forcing for the lowlands. Foothills action only.

 

What happened to the good 'ol days when it wasn't so difficult to get a lowland t'storm on or after a hot day?

[Jbolin]

What happened to the good 'ol days when it wasn't so difficult to get a lowland t'storm on or after a hot day?

No forcing

 

No BOOM

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks poised to crash by day 8... even earlier than the GFS.    

 

[Timmy Supercell]

No forcing

 

No BOOM

 

Yeah, I get that concept, missed my bigger point 

[BLI snowman]

What happened to the good 'ol days when it wasn't so difficult to get a lowland t'storm on or after a hot day?

 

Been a lousy stretch of warm seasons for convection starting with 2015. 

[Jbolin]

Yeah, I get that concept, missed my bigger point 

No I didn't 

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GFS is giving really high CAPE values for my area on Wednesday. Also the model shows rain.

 

E46D4886-5ECA-4DDA-9AF5-B38E20E33D62.jpeg

The 12z EURO is also showing high CAPE values west of the Cascades for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Not always a guarantee you'll see thunderstorms though but there's some good potential.

 

[Jesse]

12z Euro not looking so favorable for Shawnigan’s double barrel heatwave.

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro not looking so favorable for Shawnigan’s double barrel heatwave.

 

 

It will be interesting to see what the 12Z EPS shows.   The 00Z run was quite warm in the 8-10 day period and would qualify for a double barrel.

 

 

[Jesse]

Man, who saw that coming???

[TacomaWaWx]

The 12z EURO is also showing high CAPE values west of the Cascades for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Not always a guarantee you'll see thunderstorms though but there's some good potential.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019061012_58_7779_654.png us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019061012_61_7779_654.png us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019061012_62_7779_654.png

I didn’t realize there was supposed to be high instability up here in Western WA I thought this was going on in OR.

[TT-SEA]

Man, who saw that coming???

Censoring again? I reported on the 12Z ECMWF and noted it was a big departure from the last EPS run. It is what it is, Jesse. Can we track the models without personal BS? If you are actually tracking the models... then it will be interesting to see if the EPS jumps on board. Its not about you.

[TT-SEA]

Shut up. Contrary to your belief, a warm EPS map doesn’t need to be posted as a response to every comment I make about model trends. I have access to the EPS. And of course here I am giving you the negative response you so desire again.

Yeah... sure thing buddy.

 

Always about you. So mistreated. I am always out to get you!

 

Dumb. As usual.

[Deweydog]

This is CRAZY.

[TacomaWaWx]

For those tracking Wednesday... here is the new 12Z ECMWF for that afternoon:

 

 

showing 93 at my house. Adding the 3 degrees for the cool bias that’s 96. Even my house close to the sound may get the first 90 degree day of the year.

[Jesse]

Yeah... sure thing buddy.

 

Always about you. So mistreated. I am always out to get you!

 

Dumb. As usual.

Deleted my reply. Not even worth it with you. And of course it is precisely what you desire.

[TT-SEA]

Deleted my reply. Not even worth it with you. And of course it is precisely what you desire.

 

     

 

So stupid.   

[Front Ranger]

LOL!!

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS did not jump on board with the trough and looks just about the same as the 00Z run... just slightly cooler.   Maybe not another full fledged heat wave.

 

The control run looks closer to the ECMWF though at day 10...

 

[ShawniganLake]

12z Euro not looking so favorable for Shawnigan’s double barrel heatwave.

I thought that was your double barrel heatwave. I was going with the ULL.

[Jesse]

I thought that was your double barrel heatwave. I was going with the ULL.

Good eye catching the trend of height rises offshore on the ensembles. Still pretty early but it looks like things could end up moving that way. Or endless heat forever. I’d say both are equally likely at this juncture.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the control run does end up with a ULL moving right over the PNW around day 12 and 13.

 

The EPS does not show that... but its also not hot in the day 10-15 period either.   Just a weak warm signal out here with much of the central part of the country cooler than normal.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... 10-15 day mean:

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TacomaWaWx]

Nws sea Disc. Talking about a small potential for dry lightning thunderstorms in the cascades Wednesday. I love thunderstorms but I definitely am not rooting for that.

[Timmy Supercell]

Nws sea Disc. Talking about a small potential for dry lightning thunderstorms in the cascades Wednesday. I love thunderstorms but I definitely am not rooting for that.

 

Hopefully towards July we start tapping into some real monsoon stuff. Normally all of my mid and late summer storms drop a ton of rain over by my place.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I moved over to the eastside so it will be a record thunderstorm year for over here and lots of good cells sneaking west into the valley.

[Timmy Supercell]

I moved over to the eastside so it will be a record thunderstorm year for over here and lots of good cells sneaking west into the valley.

 

I would have to get more than 25 days to get record territory at KLMT. One of the years in the 1990's had that many here.

[MossMan]

Perfection on the Columbia!

Currently 82 degrees.