July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

12z GFS looks wet next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

June ended up being decently below average over in Grant County. Still haven't even hit 90 yet. 

 

https://www.bluemountaineagle.com/news/june-colder-than-normal/article_b3bcd520-9d02-11e9-9d69-2702f6a5cd68.html?fbclid=IwAR0sy25WUrVk5rUEEz4LxEHzOCC1vmZ8J-cjeYM4Se6dR16WSkMTp9auP6U

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS looks wet next week.

 

If this were to verify we would be heading into the latter half of the month below average and with fire season still weeks away.

[Jesse]

If this were to verify we would be heading into the latter half of the month below average and with fire season still weeks away.

Such a concept feels like but a distant dream.

[Phil]

Ha..the 12z GFS cancels the warm pattern completely.

[Omegaraptor]

Ha..the 12z GFS cancels the warm pattern completely.

What are the chances of it actually happening considering WHEM forcing?

[Jesse]

Ha..the 12z GFS cancels the warm pattern completely.

 

12z Euro tried the same thing yesterday. Nice to see that possibility getting a little play at least.

[MossMan]

.04” of drizzle so far today.

56 degrees.

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Pretty big shift away from heat on the 12z ensembles as well.

 

[BLI snowman]

Cool July!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Major ensemble improvement with the 12z. 

[Omegaraptor]

GEFS and GEPS both disagree with the operational GFS.

[MossMan]

Glad we went there when we did a few weeks ago...been a little rough since!

[Jesse]

GEFS and GEPS both disagree with the operational GFS.

The ensembles took a large step toward the operational. Seems like someone is getting a little shook though.

[Jesse]

Cool July!!!

Let’s give it another 3-4 weeks.

[Omegaraptor]

The ensembles took a large step toward the operational. Seems like someone is getting a little shook though.

One cold model is not a sign of massive change. Wake me up in five days when it’s still showing the same thing.

[Jesse]

One cold model is not a sign of massive change. Wake me up in five days when it’s still showing the same thing.

Indeed. Could just be a blip. But when the ensembles shift that way it usually lends he operational solution more credence.

 

It will be ok though. Highs mostly in the 70s in the summer with rain at times wouldn’t be the end of the world.

[Omegaraptor]

Indeed. Could just be a blip. But when the ensembles shift that way it usually lends he operational solution more credence.

It will be ok though. Highs mostly in the 70s in the summer with rain at times wouldn’t be the end of the world.

Doesn’t a cool July in a Niño year tend to lead into a warm August and September?

 

Also we haven’t seen a legitimately cooler than average summer month since 2012. Not many storms since 2013, either. As much as I don’t like to use this word, we’re most likely due.

[ShawniganLake]

One cold model is not a sign of massive change. Wake me up in five days when it’s still showing the same thing.

Not sure if you’ve looked at the models this morning but pretty much all took a step back from building any major heat. Will see what the Euro has to say.

[Jesse]

Doesn’t a cool July in a Niño year tend to lead into a warm August and September?

 

Also we haven’t seen a legitimately cooler than average summer month since 2012. Not many storms since 2013, either. As much as I don’t like to use this word, we’re most likely due.

We have moved away from a niño for the time being. Close to neutral now.

[Omegaraptor]

We have moved away from a niño for the time being. Close to neutral now.

I am aware of this, but the switch was fairly recent. I heard a meteorologist say that ENSO isn’t just a magical switch that turns on and off, but when it changes, the global climate actually takes time to shift to the current ENSO state. How accurate is that statement?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

PDX hit 60 again. All 3 days in July so far have hit 60 for the low. Depending on the high today, we could end up with a positive departure day.

[BLI snowman]

Let’s give it another 3-4 weeks.

July is a pretty reasonable month still. It's August that has really died in recent years.

[Phil]

What are the chances of it actually happening considering WHEM forcing?

Unlikely to avoid a warm pattern of some kind, but it is certainly possible to avoid a nasty heat ridge pattern since the negative NAM/NAO wave structure corresponds to a suppressed 4CH and more equatorward WHEM ITCZ.

 

That doesn’t mean it happens this way..things can change, but the warmth might have to arise via SW flow/offshore troughing immediately following the CCKW passage, which presents a better large scale moisture advection situation as well with less potential for “big heat”.

[Phil]

And we’ve now had 69 consecutive -NAO days. A truly epic reversal from 2013-18, breaking 2011’s streak of 68.

 

The NAO was almost perpetually positive from mid-2013 to mid/late 2018 (minus the Feb 2018 SSW).

 

In due time, of this continues, it will bring the AMO back positive and focus more forcing in the IO/ATL sector, which through the WP can initiate a low pass -PDO/-PNA wave structure.

 

But I’m getting ahead of myself. First it needs to persist.

[Jesse]

[TacomaWaWx]

Another cool day so far. Currently 60 degrees in tacoma but I’m up at port Ludlow and it’s 59 and drizzle here.

[Jesse]

I am aware of this, but the switch was fairly recent. I heard a meteorologist say that ENSO isn’t just a magical switch that turns on and off, but when it changes, the global climate actually takes time to shift to the current ENSO state. How accurate is that statement?

Kind of a chicken vs egg thing. Does atmospheric circulation drive ENSO or does ENSO drive atmospheric circulation. Probably a little bit of both.

[Omegaraptor]

PDX hit 60 again. All 3 days in July so far have hit 60 for the low. Depending on the high today, we could end up with a positive departure day.

Kinda like what PDX saw back in early April. Cool days, warm nights, departures were often around average.

 

The opposite happened in late April with the warm day cool night pattern. Parts of the region even got a frost at the end of April.

[Phil]

Doesn’t a cool July in a Niño year tend to lead into a warm August and September?

 

Also we haven’t seen a legitimately cooler than average summer month since 2012. Not many storms since 2013, either. As much as I don’t like to use this word, we’re most likely due.

We haven’t had legit summer season Greenland blocking since 2012 either. But we have one now.

 

The old background state is trying to hang on in the tropical/subtropical NPAC. So it’s not a guarantee this regime holds. But recall we discussed the correlations between strong polar blocking during May and the tendency towards cooler Jul/Aug patterns in the West.

 

Perhaps this marks the transition out of the ridiculously persistent +PMM/+NAO state that produced all that summer heat in recent years.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[MossMan]

And your sarcastic post about us all burning up and dying wasn't trolling?

Just trying to show how insane the media has gotten. Western Washington is not under “extreme” wildfire conditions or risk currently.

[Jesse]

[Phil]

I am aware of this, but the switch was fairly recent. I heard a meteorologist say that ENSO isn’t just a magical switch that turns on and off, but when it changes, the global climate actually takes time to shift to the current ENSO state. How accurate is that statement?

That’s a huge oversimplification. There are a multitude of systematic functions that do “lag” ENSO/SSTs in the tropics, but it depends which ones you’re looking at.

 

Technically, in many cases, patterns in extratropical wave breaking/longwave stations lead/force aspects of the tropical forcing, and ENSO is triggered (or at least pre-conditioned) by forcings *external* to the tropics.

[Jesse]

Just trying to show how insane the media has gotten. Western Washington is not under “extreme” wildfire conditions or risk currently.

It’s been a pretty dry year in much of western Washington, still running well below normal for precip year to date. But yes, all of the evil drizzle lately is probably helping matters. It’s still very early in the summer though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Omegaraptor]

12z ECMWF!

[Phil]

Well, we can place Omegaraptor firmly in the “heat miser” camp. So many heat lovers on here. I don’t get it.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

GEFS and GEPS both disagree with the operational GFS.

I have heard that the GEFS is still based on the GFSv14 model, and won't be based on FV3 until next year. Can anyone confirm that?