Jesse Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Fine. I’ll stop talking about “correlations”, save the posts in question, and then bump them when it’s all said and done for verification purposes. Will the post bumps about the late month mega ridge be coming soon? Getting close to verification time. I was actually just about to start the heatwave forecast thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Will the post bumps about the late month mega ridge be coming soon? Getting close to verification time. Progression really looking a lot like 2002 and 2012 at this point. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 12Z GFS is quite a bit further east in the Thursday/Friday timeframe... more sun and less rain on those days as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 12Z GFS is quite a bit further east in the Thursday/Friday timeframe... more sun and less rain on those days as well. Dry arctic blast. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Clouds this morning. A nice change from that annoying orb in the sky. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Dreary day. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Will the post bumps about the late month mega ridge be coming soon? Getting close to verification time. I was actually just about to start the heatwave forecast thread.You had better troll me mercilessly over late Sep..I’d lose respect for you if you didn’t. Look, I admit I’m a bit angsty thanks to this nightmarish semester and relentless heat frying my brain. But my forecasts are always made with the best of faith. And no matter how I analyze things, I reach the same conclusion when extrapolating forward. I really do think it’s a case of “delayed not denied”. And FWIW, I’d love nothing more than to see you guys score a winter that puts 1949/50 to shame and forever buries the stupid “can’t happen because of globular worming” arguments. I’m not invested personally right now..I’d much rather torch in the winter than summer, especially if someone else gets slammed (vs a hopeless zonal outcome that climate zealots will seize on). But I’m not going to forecast just to please the crowd here or wishcast my personal desires. That’s a recipe for failure. I make enough mistakes as it is. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Dreary day. Sure is. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Sure is. Looks like some of your deciduous trees in the background have died. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Looks like some of your deciduous trees in the background have died.I told him that last year and he brushed it off. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Looks like some of your deciduous trees in the background have died.Two of them, they have been dead for years from the looks of it. Cutting them down is on my to do list, I think they died of too much water to be honest, they are right where a massive amount of water would pool up, my drainage project that I still need to finish up will take care of that. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Nice to see things so green out there. If we don't get soaking rains before mid-October the vegetation goes dormant with with everything brown. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 I told him that last year and he brushed it off.They were dead last year as well. Probably for the last 5 years. You are not the only landscaping expert on the forum, I am not concerned about two dead alders. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 I have an 80 foot spruce that died during the blowtorch summer of 2017, still need to take it down. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Two of them, they have been dead for years from the looks of it. Cutting them down is on my to do list, I think they died of too much water to be honest, they are right where a massive amount of water would pool up, my drainage project that I still need to finish up will take care of that. Sure they did. We all know that trees around here HATE water. Strange that only people who seem to dislike rain notice this phenomenon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Fine. I’ll stop talking about “correlations”, save the posts in question, and then bump them when it’s all said and done for verification purposes. I’ve wasted too much energy on this.At least it doesn't bother you. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 I have an 80 foot spruce that died during the blowtorch summer of 2017, still need to take it down.#firewood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 12Z GFS is dry for the vast majority of the next 2 weeks. A few days in there with scattered showers... but it would be a much less dreary overall if it verifies. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Sure is.Looks gorgeous. Would love some days like that here. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 #firewood Yep, I was able to collect about 6 cords this year without paying a dime. I usually use about 2-3 cords a winter, so we are ready for the 1949-50 redux. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 They were dead last year as well. Probably for the last 5 years. You are not the only landscaping expert on the forum, I am not concerned about two dead alders.I don’t consider myself an “expert” in anything, but thanks for the compliment. I just hope you’re not in the wrong place at the wrong time. Way too many injuries/deaths here this year from dead ash trees falling (emerald ash borer beetles wiped them all out a few years ago). Insane how many are still up, leaning over roadways, sidewalks, etc. Dropping like toothpicks now. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Sure they did. We all know that trees around here HATE water. Strange that only people who seem to dislike rain notice this phenomenon. It happens, if for some reason they are standing in a newly formed beaver pond or something along those lines. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 It happens, if for some reason they are standing in a newly formed beaver pond or something along those lines.Yeah, I was curious how they got to that size in the first place if they are in a location that constantly pools water. Trees don’t like growing in ponds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Humans can die from too much water too. Much more common to see dehydration deaths, though. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Yep, I was able to collect about 6 cords this year without paying a dime. I usually use about 2-3 cords a winter, so we are ready for the 1949-50 redux.Yea. We usually burn close to 2 cords. Had to buy a lot of that this year but at 250-300 bucks a cord it’s a bit expensive. Going to get an extra cord just in case we have a cold one and my wife is home on maternity leave this winter so the fire will probably be going more steady. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Looks gorgeous. Would love some days like that here. A little more balance would be nice up here as well. It has rained on 13 out of the last 14 days in the Snoqualmie Valley with over 6.5 inches of rain in that time. And there will likely be at least some rain on each of the next 5 or 6 days. Normal for September in the Snoqualmie Valley is a total 10 days with rain in the month... and an average monthly total of 2.97 inches. Not balanced right now. It will likely even out in October or November with some unusually long dry stretches. But I wish it would be balance out more on a weekly basis. And you probably wish the same for your area. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Sure they did. We all know that trees around here HATE water. Strange that only people who seem to dislike rain notice this phenomenon. Those two trees are just to right...underwater most of the winter. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Those two trees are just to right...underwater most of the winter. All I see to the right is a TON of invasive himalayan blackberry. Wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 12Z GFS is dry for the vast majority of the next 2 weeks. A few days in there with scattered showers... but it would be a much less dreary overall if it verifies. Cooler nights though. #summersover 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 A little more balance would be nice up here as well. It has rained on 13 out of the last 14 days in the Snoqualmie Valley with over 6.5 inches of rain in that time. And there will likely be at least some rain on each of the next 5 or 6 days. Normal for September in the Snoqualmie Valley is a total 10 days with rain in the month... and an average monthly total of 2.97 inches. Not balanced right now. It will likely even out in October or November with some unusually long dry stretches. But I wish it would be balance out more on a weekly basis. And you probably wish the same for your area.Jet suppression. Prince Rupert has only had 5.5” in September and they average 10.5”+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Yeah, I was curious how they got to that size in the first place if they are in a location that constantly pools water. Trees don’t like growing in ponds.Probably when the original owners cleared this portion of the property to build it changed how the water went. I’m sure glad everyone knows my property better than I do! Sorry big guy, we are not dying of dehydration up here...even though you wish we were so you can continue your everything is dying agenda. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Cooler nights though. #summersover Summer has been over for 22 days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Nice to see things so green out there. If we don't get soaking rains before mid-October the vegetation goes dormant with with everything brown. I'm kind of hoping that October isn't dry this year. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Jet suppression. Prince Rupert has only had 5.5” in September and they average 10.5”+ Indeed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Probably when the original owners cleared this portion of the property to build it changed how the water went. I’m sure glad everyone knows my property better than I do! Sorry big guy, we are not dying of dehydration up here...even though you wish we were so you can continue your everything is dying agenda. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 All I see to the right is a TON of invasive himalayan blackberry. Wow. Those are gone now, took them out when I had the excavator earlier this year. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 A little more balance would be nice up here as well. It has rained on 13 out of the last 14 days in the Snoqualmie Valley with over 6.5 inches of rain in that time. And there will likely be at least some rain on each of the next 5 or 6 days. Normal for September in the Snoqualmie Valley is a total 10 days with rain in the month... and an average monthly total of 2.97 inches. Not balanced right now. It will likely even out in October or November with some unusually long dry stretches. But I wish it would be balance out more on a weekly basis. And you probably wish the same for your area. It’s rained 13 out of the last 16 here and up to 2.42” in that timeframe. 9 of those days were consecutive which is actually a record at my location. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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