September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

ECMWF has been waffling around a bit more lately it would seem. GFS has been a lot more consistent for whatever that is worth.

 

Euro has also been really bad with precip estimates until the event is actually happening lately as well. It used to nail those forecasts.

We will see. I definitely liked the 12z GFS better.

 

If the cutting off to the south and west thing becomes a trend, that definitely wouldn’t bode well for snow in your neck of the woods.

 

Then again, the mid range is notorious for being the Euro’s cutoff bias range. And the upcoming event is entering the mid range.

[Phil]

I pointed out that those were all moderate/strong Ninos a yesterday and your response was to say 2019 is in "very Nino" conditions right now and will move more that way. Definitely came across as defending them as ENSO analogs.

I said the *tropical forcing* is very El Niño-like right now.

 

Wouldn’t you agree? Anomalous subsidence over the Maritime continent and convection across the EPAC/WHEM..how else would you describe it?

[Omegaraptor]

Euro is looking pretty hot in the DC swamp at D7-D8.

[Deweydog]

Did ENSO lag end?

[TT-SEA]

Both the ECMWF and GFS show next weekend being basically dry and fairly sunny with just some precip in the mountains.

[Deweydog]

Case in point!

What I wouldn’t give to have yesterday’s 12z Euro back...

[Jesse]

What I wouldn’t give to have yesterday’s 12z Euro back...

Let it go, big guy.

[Omegaraptor]

Both the ECMWF and GFS show next weekend being basically dry and fairly sunny with just some precip in the mountains.

 

GFS has been giving Portland some pretty low dews for next week. Pretty standard fare considering cold airmass + not much cloud cover.

[TT-SEA]

GFS has been giving Portland some pretty low dews for next week. Pretty standard fare considering cold airmass + not much cloud cover.

At least on this run... much of the energy is focused in CA. Leaving us with fairly pleasant weather.

[Phil]

[Phil]

Did ENSO lag end?

What is ENSO lag?

[Deweydog]

What is ENSO lag?

OMG...

 

Have you even stepped foot inside a high school?!???

[Phil]

[Jesse]

It’s a trap, Matt!

[Deweydog]

[Kayla]

We will see. I definitely liked the 12z GFS better.

 

If the cutting off to the south and west thing becomes a trend, that definitely wouldn’t bode well for snow in your neck of the woods.

 

Then again, the mid range is notorious for being the Euro’s cutoff bias range. And the upcoming event is entering the mid range.

 

No, definitely not. At this point I'd wager that it's overdoing the digging but either way, it's a really nice looking pattern for late Sept.

[Omegaraptor]

Lol, what else is new? Could reach 70+ days above 90*F at this rate.

 

Add this to the list of why I’m consistently jealous of you guys. Your seasonal transitions occur sooooooo much earlier than ours. Except for summer..which, of course, is almost an instant flip here, but takes forever out there. It’s hilarious. Y’all have everything I want in terms of seasonality.

 

I'm often jealous of the epic rain and thunder storms you get out there. You can keep the humidity that comes with it though. Having a dry summer is great, but the price you pay is having few thunderstorms.

 

Yeah, winter starting early is pretty cool, and spring actually starts in March here. But then again, it's not like we have much of a winter anyway.

[Timmy Supercell]

That was fun, had over an inch of rain and a few 50+ mph during that week in Klamath Falls. Twice in that October I must have been closer to severe at my house considering some limbs were coming down in various places (which generally requires pretty strong gusts here to do this).

 

Nice to know I'm not the only one thirsting for more of these fun Fall storms. Maybe in 3-4 weeks you can give me some cold/dry.

 

Also a few more significant rains at my place later that Fall. There was one heavy rain early on the 27th of October it was just pouring for 2 hours straight 6-8am. That was one of the few times approaching November I could have my window opened all the way and it wasn't all that cool outside while the rain was coming down. The air smelled majestic. 

 

Another one like that in November but can't recall the day. The fall rain was pretty anomalous for this area. And I believe KLMT as wet as that station got, didn't accurately represent the kind of rain that happened up at this house in downtown. I'd go as far as adding 20-30% precip values versus what the official station recorded.

[Omegaraptor]

When was the last big regional windstorm?

 

I experienced 65 MPH gusts on the coast on 4/7/17 but I don't think it was that great inland.

[Timmy Supercell]

When was the last big regional windstorm?

 

I experienced 65 MPH gusts on the coast on 4/7/17 but I don't think it was that great inland.

 

Regional is a tricky word. I was thinking about one of the lows in Fall or Winter 2014 as being our last one. 

 

Ones that immediately come to mind are 12/11/2014, 11/11/2014, and 10/25/2014. All of which actually reached as far south as my place, I can remember half dozen times that season I had gusts 55-65 from October through February.

 

No idea how Washington performed in any of those events however.

[stuffradio]

The white rock pier is officially re opening today after it was destroyed in last December’s record breaking windstorm.

 

I thought it opened end of August?

[Phil]

Are you serious? Cold and warm ENSO events tend to not rear their ugly/gorgeous heads from a pattern perspective until well into the cold season. Aside from cryptic occasional showers of cryptic jargon that’s usually how things go from a boots on the ground perspective.

Isn’t that the point I’ve been making? That the wave train in September will not respond the same way to “El Niño” type forcing that it would in, say, December?

 

You can see this for yourself right now. Phase-8/1 centered tropical forcing, yet we have a late period poleward AAM propagation cycle ongoing with a “La Niña looking” pattern over North America (at the moment).

 

You have to admit, “ENSO lag” was stupid vague. Is it lagging or is something lagging it?

[Deweydog]

Isn’t that the point I’ve been making? That the wave train in September will not respond the same way to “El Niño” type forcing that it would in, say, December?

 

You can see this for yourself right now. Phase-8/1 centered tropical forcing, yet we have a late period poleward AAM propagation cycle ongoing with a “La Niña looking” pattern over North America (at the moment).

 

You have to admit, “ENSO lag” was stupid vague. Is it lagging or is something lagging it?

It must be quite demoralizing to have to wade through such a bog of stupidity. Good thing hubris is buoyant!

[Jesse]

It must be quite demoralizing to have to wade through such a bog of stupidity. Good thing hubris is buoyant!

 

Today and Monday-Wednesday are looking pretty sunny, may all crack 70.

 

#it'sgonnabeok

[ShawniganLake]

I thought it opened end of August?

https://www.straight.com/life/1304906/official-reopening-celebration-be-held-white-rock-pier-september-21

[Phil]

[Jesse]

Well, I was out of town for 2/3 of our big daddy severe storms this summer, and y’all had just as much winter epicness as we did last year (IIRC you actually beat us in the snowfall department..we finished with ~25”, which was about average locally).

 

With the recent thunderstorms you had, and now the nice fall weather, you’re really kicking our a** across the seasonal cycle.

 

By "we" he meant Redding, CA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really nice afternoon. Currently partly sunny and 64. Tomorrow trending a little wetter down here. 

 

Wouldn't be surprised if we had our first frost next weekend, which would be about average historically speaking here, but would be the earliest in the 9 autumns I have been up here by about 2 weeks. 

[Front Ranger]

I'm often jealous of the epic rain and thunder storms you get out there. You can keep the humidity that comes with it though. Having a dry summer is great, but the price you pay is having few thunderstorms.

 

Yeah, winter starting early is pretty cool, and spring actually starts in March here. But then again, it's not like we have much of a winter anyway.

Some would say spring lasts from February through June. Past couple years demonstrating that perfectly.

[Omegaraptor]

By "we" he meant Redding, CA.

 

I mean they did get a foot last winter. 10" more than us.

 

But then again we just got really unlucky. All I can do is hope that doesn't happen again this winter.

[Deweydog]

Nice day!

[TT-SEA]

Nice day!

 

 

Gorgeous.    

[Omegaraptor]

It is indeed a nice day.

[Phil]

Tropical forcing over the next 2 weeks. Note the persistent subsidence over the Maritime continent consistent with the w-2 background state that has existed there since last fall/winter.

 

[TT-SEA]

Picture perfect...

 

[Jesse]

12z EPS doesn’t look as cut-offy as the operational.

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice. Day.

[Jesse]

Nice. Day.

Enjoy it or die!!!

[Front Ranger]

ND

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Kiddos able to be outside today. Need to mow this week. Grass hasn’t grown like this in Sept in as long as I can remember.