September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[GHweatherChris]

Actually El Nino is, The Little Boy.

[GHweatherChris]

No wonder you’re so d**n stupid.

 

We’re you homeschooled?

We are you?

[Omegaraptor]

By the time one of those show up on the models you will start complaining you want to see a cooler and drier regime.

 

Anthony

 

Nah, I haven't complained about the immediate weather this September at all. It's been a pretty great month actually, even with a lot of storms missing us we still got plenty of rain. Don't even think I complained about immediate weather since early July, and I admitted later that early July was still quite comfortable and me complaining about it was rather dumb.

 

It's just weather.

[Jesse]

Nah, I haven't complained about the immediate weather this September at all. It's been a pretty great month actually, even with a lot of storms missing us we still got plenty of rain. Don't even think I complained about immediate weather since early July, and I admitted later that early July was still quite comfortable and me complaining about it was rather dumb.

 

It's just weather.

 

How does the 12Z Euro look for Siskiyou County, CA?

[Phil]

We are you?

Cosmic scale karma right there.

 

In this case, my phone is just as incompetent as you. I’m constantly cleaning up bs autocorrects like this.

 

[Omegaraptor]

How does the 12Z Euro look for Siskiyou County, CA?

 

Euro is only up to 96 hours now.

 

Per the GFS, the big cold anomalies were actually centered just east of Siskiyou a couple days ago but they're shifting north from the looks of it. Looks like all of eastern OR will be pretty chilly at least per the GFS. 12z GFS no longer shows snow in Klamath Falls and Lakeview.

[GHweatherChris]

Cosmic scale karma right there.

 

In this case my phone is just as incompetent as you.

 

Hence, Karma is a biitch!

[Jesse]

Have we really stooped to sending screen shots of our phones’ autocorrect on here?

[Front Ranger]

1) This idea that a weak El Niño background state will somehow “spoil winter” is just unfounded paranoia. It’s literally a myth, again, borne out of recency bias. There is no evidence that, in the long run, having a weak modoki type background state in the Pacific reduces chances at a good winter in the west. If anything, it increases them relative to strong ENSO of any sign. Shocker!

Ok, but you also keep pointing to years that were moderate to strong Ninos.

[GHweatherChris]

Have we really stooped to sending screen shots of our phones’ autocorrect on here?

Apparently it is the thing to do when you are called out for something that should have been learned in kindergarten.

[Kayla]

I get it, man. El Niño gets a bad rap here. And if you look at those cold tongue SSTs at this moment, you’d think “what the hell is phil smoking this time?”

 

Unfortunately folks have been brainwashed into accepting ENSO as some small stripe of orange or blue on a map, and that somehow this stripe has the power to make or break winter in the PNW even when it’s within a half degree of normal surrounded by other large perturbations in the ocean atmosphere system.

 

This is complete nonsense. El Niño (especially in s more muted, “west-based” form) does not, by itself, torpedo winter in the PNW. ENSO is a complex multidimensional heat processing and balancing system..those SSTs are a *result* of the process, not a cause of it (in the future I’m sure this reality will be better communicated). And..there’s no such thing as truly “neutral” ENSO. There’s always some background state present and it’s communicated to/thru the Pacific, even if the EOF(s) for ENSO, specifically, are not active.

 

Weak El Niño resulted in the coldest and snowiest Feb/March on record here. I would honestly be fine with it.

[ShawniganLake]

I did not learn about the AAM in grade 12 physics or my first year in College

[Omegaraptor]

Hopefully the upcoming system is the end of the torching night pattern.

 

Average low at PDX for the month is 59.6ºF which is still well above the all-time record.

 

HIO, however, seems to finally be getting sane nighttime lows. It fell to 49 there this morning.

[Front Ranger]

I get what you are saying here. The thing is I think Jim is fairly aware of the complexities too, and is just coming to a different conclusion than you.

Sometimes it feels like Phil thinks that just because most people don't understand all his jargon, they are complete idiots when it comes to weather/climate.

 

Also feels like he kinda likes it that way.

[Phil]

Have we really stooped to sending screen shots of our phones’ autocorrect on here?

Given the context, I would have been burned at the stake if I’d really typed that, lol. Off the charts irony.

[Jesse]

I did not learn about the AAM in grade 12 physics or my first year in College

I learned about angular momentum the first semester of physics in college. But obviously we never talked about atmospheric angular momentum, since it wasn’t an advanced meteorology course.

[Omegaraptor]

 

Sharp rise in SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region over the last several days. Is this because of the westerlies Phil was talking about?

[Phil]

Ok, but you also keep pointing to years that were moderate to strong Ninos.

What are you talking about? I haven’t decided on winter analogs for the PNW/US yet.

 

My references to 2002, 2004, 2009, 1982, etc are merely in the context of the SH stratwarm event. When did I claim they were good winter analogs for the PNW?

[Kayla]

I learned about angular momentum the first semester of physics in college. But obviously we never talked about atmospheric angular momentum, since it wasn’t an advanced meteorology course.

 

I'm still trying to wrap my head around how atmospheric angular momentum is a "closed source"...

[Deweydog]

Sometimes it feels like Phil thinks that just because most people don't understand all his jargon, they are complete idiots when it comes to weather/climate.

 

Also feels like he kinda likes it that way.

My wife’s hubris usually spikes every 28 days during her AAM cycle.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much drier and less stormy for Thursday and Friday compared to the last few runs. Storm slides southward offshore. Thursday went from being very wet to almost totally dry on this run.

[Front Ranger]

Weak El Niño resulted in the coldest and snowiest Feb/March on record here. I would honestly be fine with it.

You mean weak Nino head fake. Setting us up for the TRUE Nino this year.

[GHweatherChris]

How are the ABC, BBD indexes looking?

[Jesse]

Looks like our little cold trough next week is pretty close to cutting off by hour 168 on the 12z Euro.

 

Wouldn’t surprise me to be honest. We have a terribly hard time pulling off legit cold events these days. Little wrinkles like this often show up at the last minute and mess things up.

[Kayla]

You mean weak Nino head fake. Setting us up for the TRUE Nino this year.

 

I stand corrected!!

[Deweydog]

Looks like our little cold trough next week is pretty close to cutting off by hour 168 on the 12z Euro.

 

Wouldn’t surprise me to be honest. We have a terribly hard time pulling off legit cold events these days. Little wrinkles like this often show up at the last minute and mess things up.

Looks pretty similar to yesterday’s 12z to me, which was apparently worth giving a left nut for come December.

[Jesse]

Looks pretty similar to yesterday’s 12z to me, which was apparently worth giving a left nut for come December.

There are subtle differences.

 

I don’t like how the bulk of the energy now carves well offshore and ends up centered to our south. The 12z Euro yesterday showed much more robust NNW flow moving in here, kept the trough more consolidated.

[Front Ranger]

What are you talking about? I haven’t decided on winter analogs for the PNW/US yet.

 

My references to 2002, 2004, 2009, 1982, etc are merely in the context of the SH stratwarm event. When did I claim they were good winter analogs for the PNW?

I pointed out that those were all moderate/strong Ninos a yesterday and your response was to say 2019 is in "very Nino" conditions right now and will move more that way. Definitely came across as defending them as ENSO analogs.

[Phil]

I learned about angular momentum the first semester of physics in college. But obviously we never talked about atmospheric angular momentum, since it wasn’t an advanced meteorology course.

It’s really not that complicated. Anyone here can understand it.

 

For GHChris..just google search the important words lumped together like “atmospheric angular momentum conservation” and boom, instant reading material.

 

[Front Ranger]

[Omegaraptor]

Winter cancel. Any thoughts on winter 2020-21?

[Timmy Supercell]

Another 10/13/16 type extratropical system would be cool. In fact, 10/13 through 10/17 came with some pretty decent wind. Looks like 10/15 had a gust of 50 at both PDX and HIO.

 

That was fun, had over an inch of rain and a few 50+ mph during that week in Klamath Falls. Twice in that October I must have been closer to severe at my house considering some limbs were coming down in various places (which generally requires pretty strong gusts here to do this).

 

Nice to know I'm not the only one thirsting for more of these fun Fall storms. Maybe in 3-4 weeks you can give me some cold/dry.

[GHweatherChris]

GLAAM!

[Deweydog]

This was all covered 12 years ago during the one-hit-wonder fall of GLAAM in 2007.

 

It’s the Chumbawamba of indices.

[Kayla]

There are subtle differences.

 

ECMWF has been waffling around a bit more lately it would seem. GFS has been a lot more consistent for whatever that is worth.

 

Euro has also been really bad with precip estimates until the event is actually happening lately as well. It used to nail those forecasts.

[GHweatherChris]

LOL

[Jesse]

[Phil]

I'm still trying to wrap my head around how atmospheric angular momentum is a "closed source"...

The Earth system is closed (or can be treated as such in this particular case). Angular momentum is exchanged between the rotating Earth and the Atmosphere, but the net change is always zero.

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

Hour 192 is colder than yesterday’s run.

Case in point!