September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

It didn't start snowing until Spring Break in 2008, that's pretty hard to confuse the two seasons. I remember '07-'08 was the same season as the Gale storm that slapped the coast pretty hard with one of their better wind events in recent years. 

 

I just know everywhere had snow in 07. There were a ton of days in 07-08 where it snowed and largely melted on contact. Probably 15+. It was fairly ridiculous. 

[jakeinthevalley]

Quite the entertaining afternoon in McMinnville as the practice runs for the airshow were going on in the past couple hours. F35 Lightning was in the air for a bit and it is certainly something to see (and hear and feel)

[MossMan]

18z is running!

Another thing you refuse to learn...Tim says always discount the 6 and 18z’s. What is the matter with you?

[Blizzard777]

Quite the entertaining afternoon in McMinnville as the practice runs for the airshow were going on in the past couple hours. F35 Lightning was in the air for a bit and it is certainly something to see (and hear and feel)

Now that sounds like a wonderful way to spend the afternoon!

Love the rumble of those jets as much as Thunder!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Basically everyone got 3-4" in the Portland area on 1/16/07. It hit everyone.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2007/01/16/

 

The snow on the 10th was very spotty around Portland, some places had up to 3-4" but most got an inch or less.

 

I think Silverton did best on the 10th. I think they got about 3" that day, and only an inch or so on 1/16 as they were a bit south for that event....

[TacomaWaWx]

68/57 day, beautiful sunny day here. Nice to have a day not even hit 70 and be sunny still, definitely can feel that fall is in the air now. Nws forecast disc. is talking about temps about 10 degrees below climo late next week into next weekend. High temps approaching 60 and lows in the 40s. Seems like fall is 3 weeks ahead of schedule already.

[stuffradio]

Another thing you refuse to learn...Tim says always discount the 6 and 18z’s. What is the matter with you?

18Z-6Z = 12Z

[Phil]

2009, 2002, and 1982 were all moderate to strong Ninos, though. 2009 was the only solar min one.

Well, we have very El Niño-like tropical forcing right now and will likely evolve further in that direction with time.

 

So I’m not sure there’ll be a huge disconnect, with time.

[Phil]

Phil, you keep referencing 2002, but so far this fall is playing out completely different than that one did...

Well, I think you’re misunderstanding the timescale and phase space(s) I’m analyzing here.

[Phil]

It could with some help, but generally that type of broad circulation is not an effective way to tap into continental air. Still a nice pattern, though.

Jared’s pattern recognition skills are hilariously terrible/nonexistent. Maybe even worse than mine.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well, we have very El Niño-like tropical forcing right now and will likely evolve further in that direction with time.

 

So I’m not sure there’ll be a huge disconnect, with time.

Also have low solar so who knows? Wasn’t 2002 a high solar year?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yup, opportunities for numerous lows to slide down the coast.

Hopefully we see lots of BC sliders this winter.

[High Desert Mat?]

Guys, an SSW is all we need. Well that and a huge dip in the jet stream and a retrograding high along with a few other things. Could be a dud year which is what I’m expecting after all these “good” years mixed in for the last decade. We shall see.

[GHweatherChris]

The February 2019 pattern will repeat in April 2020.

[stuffradio]

Hopefully we see lots of BC sliders this winter.

They need passports to get past the border.

 

 

Check this out

[Front Ranger]

Well, we have very El Niño-like tropical forcing right now and will likely evolve further in that direction with time.

 

So I’m not sure there’ll be a huge disconnect, with time.

Perhaps. But right now, there are a lot of differences in the Pacific from some of those years, not just in ENSO regions.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

Well, we have very El Niño-like tropical forcing right now and will likely evolve further in that direction with time.

 

So I’m not sure there’ll be a huge disconnect, with time.

Let’s get through the massive late September western ridge first. One thing at a time.

[Timmy Supercell]

Let’s get through the massive late September western ridge first. One thing at a time.

 

CFS gives me a severe weather outbreak next June! 

[TT-SEA]

Our plan to move to the Spokane area has changed. I was able to find a new job with better hours, a better boss, and a much better salary.

 

Now it looks like it's between Sultan and Maple Valley. My weather-weenie side says go with Sultan due to the availability of east wind and access to the PSCZ but Maple Valley is a lot nicer. The area between Lake Stevens and Arlington would also be nice weather wise, but the commute would be atrocious. Hard to balance livability with higher chance of snow in this area. Either too expensive, too low of elevation, too long commute, etc.

 

It's been quite the headache actually, especially when I'm trying to reason with my wife that the chance to get more snow is a very important consideration. Some would say the most important. Not me, I wouldn't say that, no... But some would.

As long as you don't need to go Hwy 18 to 90 everyday... Maple Valley is way better. Just get as far to the north and east as possible.

[Phil]

Perhaps. But right now, there are a lot of differences in the Pacific from some of those years, not just in ENSO regions.

What do you mean?

[snow_wizard]

Well, we have very El Niño-like tropical forcing right now and will likely evolve further in that direction with time.

 

So I’m not sure there’ll be a huge disconnect, with time.

 

You just refuse to give up on the Nino.  It's really a stretch to consider this the same as if the ENSO SST's were warm.  Something is obviously different here.

[BLI snowman]

Perhaps. But right now, there are a lot of differences in the Pacific from some of those years, not just in ENSO regions.

 

Definitely looks like a 2002-03/2009-10 style winter for the Mid Atlantic this year.

[Phil]

[Phil]

[Phil]

Guys, an SSW is all we need. Well that and a huge dip in the jet stream and a retrograding high along with a few other things. Could be a dud year which is what I’m expecting after all these “good” years mixed in for the last decade. We shall see.

Yeah, the idea that +ENSO bias to forcing = dud winters in the West is BS..largely recency bias (since the inception of the satellite-era). Most of the recent blowtorch winters out there (with the exception of 2015) actually had little to do with ENSO, and more to do with a broad Pacific ITCZ/HC associated with the +PMM/+TNH/strong TPV in NE-Canada.

[Blizzard777]

They need passports to get past the border.

 

 

Check this out

4indices.png

I love blue!

[Phil]

You just refuse to give up on the Nino. It's really a stretch to consider this the same as if the ENSO SST's were warm. Something is obviously different here.

When the warmest waters/subsurface relative to average are consistently around the dateline and W-IO (+IOD, Modoki-structure) with an icebox in the Indo-Pacific/E-IO, you’re going to gave a +ENSO lean to forcing on the low pass assuming the ocean’s inertial derivative isn’t in opposition (which it isn’t).

 

This is why you’ve seen a consistently -SOI. I don’t care what the SSTs look like now. I care what they’re going to look like in a few months’ time.

[Phil]

Also have low solar so who knows? Wasn’t 2002 a high solar year?

Apologies, let me clear this up. I wasn’t trying to suggest it’s a winter analog for the PNW/any particular region. I’m merely looking at the structure of the tropical/subtropical circulation cells and convective variability over the seasonal cycle/transition period.

 

It’s a worst case outcome, I suppose (in that “cone of possibilities). But I haven’t decided which of the various progressions of the wave train cycles I think is most likely yet. There are a multitude of possible outcomes.

[Requiem]

[SouthHillFrosty]

Snow mapssssss

[GHweatherChris]

What is the GLAAM looking like? You know the non existent acronym.

[MossMan]

It’s going to snow.

[ShawniganLake]

It’s going to snow.

It snows here every winter.

[Deweydog]

El Niño snow is the BEST snow!

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is a pleasantly dry run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

El Niño snow is the BEST snow!

Dec 1972 and Jan 1969 say you’re goddam right!

[Front Ranger]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

From Maue.

 

[TT-SEA]

From Maue.

 

EE9esKrX4AAeoXj.png

Snowfall into early November... interesting.