September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Requiem]

GFS sticking to its guns. Fun fun fun fun.

[Phil]

I’m saying that with climate change comes a change in vegetation as well and that includes tree die off. I also don’t think the 2-3 years a of really dry and hot summers we had were not a result of climate change.

To be fair, this is not what you were saying before.

[Jesse]

To be fair, this is not what you were saying before.

To also be fair, I don’t think he even knows what he was saying before.

[Jesse]

That is a ridiculously cold airmass for this early in the 00z GFS.

 

Thicknesses down to 535dm for Portland. 850s bottom out at -2c.

[GHweatherChris]

Wad is gonna be blown too early.

[BLI snowman]

Wad is gonna be blown too early.

 

Definitely happened in 1972.

[Jesse]

Wad is gonna be blown too early.

Let’s leave personal banter off the forum.

[Jesse]

Ensemble support continues to be solid as well.

[GHweatherChris]

Let’s leave personal banter off the forum.

I almost thought you typed batter not banter!

[snow_wizard]

Wad is gonna be blown too early.

 

That simply isn't true with September / October cold snaps.  Many of our greatest winters have notable cold snaps in that time frame.

[GHweatherChris]

That simply isn't true with September / October cold snaps. Many of our greatest winters have notable cold snaps in that time frame.

No need to be defensive over a smart a** remark, it was a joke, I hope...

[GHweatherChris]

Ensemble support continues to be solid as well.

Speaking of personal banter....

[weatherfan2012]

It’s all relative..mid-80’s at the end of September are pretty horrific IMO.

And this torch has a looong way to run..probably won’t flip around until the 3rd week of October. Feels like 2018.

mid 80s in mid late september mostly sucks when we are ready for cooler temperatures when summer is stupidity hanging around.I blame it on all that hot air coming out of Dc by the way

[snow_wizard]

Ensemble support continues to be solid as well.

 

This looks like a really notable cold snap coming up.  It has the classic surface pressure signature that initiates out winter Arctic blasts.  Heavy frost is a very real possibility in the Western lowlands by next weekend.  Some early cold snaps that led to great winters happened in...

 

1949

1955

1956

1971

1972

1983

1984

1985

1996

2008

 

Just to name a few.  I still clearly remember the 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, and 2008 early cold snaps.

[Phil]

That simply isn't true with September / October cold snaps. Many of our greatest winters have notable cold snaps in that time frame.

What is it with this forum and the voodoo autumn correlation stuff? It exists on eastern forums but it’s worse here. None of it holds any statistical significance.

[GHweatherChris]

What is it with this forum and the voodoo autumn correlation stuff? It exists on eastern forums but it’s worse here. None of it holds any statistical significance.

Shouldn't bother you.

[ShawniganLake]

What is it with this forum and the voodoo autumn correlation stuff? It exists on eastern forums but it’s worse here. None of it holds any statistical significance.

Just a random collection of dummies on here.

[ShawniganLake]

Starting to rain.

[Phil]

This looks like a really notable cold snap coming up. It has the classic surface pressure signature that initiates out winter Arctic blasts. Heavy frost is a very real possibility in the Western lowlands by next weekend. Some early cold snaps that led to great winters happened in...

 

1949

1955

1956

1971

1972

1983

1984

1985

1996

2008

 

Just to name a few. I still clearly remember the 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, and 2008 early cold snaps.

There were cold snaps in Oct 2002 & 2012 as well, just to name a few that pop into mind. The important thing is what’s actually causing the cold snap..all except one of the years you listed (1972) were La Niñas. The tropics will not even remotely resemble a -ENSO regime this winter.

[Phil]

Shouldn't bother you.

Who says it bothers me?

[Jesse]

Clear and 57 here, but will probably be clouding up soon.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Go Cougs!

This aged poorly

[TT-SEA]

This aged poorly

Still say it... but that was an epic collapse. Almost surreal. Has to be close to a record. Complete insanity.

[Requiem]

EURO looks quite a bit colder than last run (at least at hour 168 from what it seems). This is regarding 850 mb temps, I have no idea about the surface.

[Jesse]

EURO looks quite a bit colder than last run (at least at hour 168 from what it seems). This is regarding 850 mb temps, I have no idea about the surface.

Yeah, definitely a move toward the GFS.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

56F and increasing clouds ahead of today’s front.

[GHweatherChris]

Who says it bothers me?

You get very annoyed at anything you do not agree with, which is weird since you know nothing about west coast weather patterns.

[TacomaWaWx]

Who says it bothers me?

Lol it clearly bothers you since have commented on it 100 times over the last 2 weeks since this cool September pattern topic started to happen. Jim has a different opinion than you, so what? If it doesn’t bother you than don’t comment on it.

[TacomaWaWx]

58 and cloudy here this morning. Has rained 0.01” since midnight so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still say it... but that was an epic collapse. Almost surreal. Has to be close to a record. Complete insanity.

 

I remember in 1993 Oregon led Cal 30-3 at halftime and lost... What is amazing about this Cougar collapse is UCLA for 3 1/2 games was completely lifeless...

 

Kind of a crappy day for ranked Pac-12 teams. Half of them lost this weekend. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This looks like a really notable cold snap coming up.  It has the classic surface pressure signature that initiates out winter Arctic blasts.  Heavy frost is a very real possibility in the Western lowlands by next weekend.  Some early cold snaps that led to great winters happened in...

 

1949

1955

1956

1971

1972

1983

1984

1985

1996

2008

 

Just to name a few.  I still clearly remember the 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, and 2008 early cold snaps.

 

1996/97 sucked south of Tacoma. But yes cold in this time frame is often a good sign.

 

And Phil's mention of 2002 and 2012 is kind of irrelevant. Those cold snaps were in late October. The fall of 2002 was very dry through October, and fall 2012 was dry through about the 12th of October. 

[Phil]

You get very annoyed at anything you do not agree with, which is weird since you know nothing about west coast weather patterns.

I base my conclusions off numbers/data, not intuition/feelings, if that’s what you mean.

 

I sometimes do the latter for my area, since I’ve lived here my entire life, but if the data argues against it I’ll still always go with the more scientific approach.

[Phil]

Lol it clearly bothers you since have commented on it 100 times over the last 2 weeks since this cool September pattern topic started to happen. Jim has a different opinion than you, so what? If it doesn’t bother you than don’t comment on it.

Fine. I’ll stop talking about “correlations”, save the posts in question, and then bump them when it’s all said and done for verification purposes.

 

I’ve wasted too much energy on this.

[Guest daniel1]

Phil when do you see this pattern changing?

[BLI snowman]

Crazy torchy fall in the works.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

55F and wet this morning in downtown Springfield.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FWIW this would break the record for earliest accumulating snowfall in the Bend, OR area by about 2 weeks...

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Fine. I’ll stop talking about “correlations”, save the posts in question, and then bump them when it’s all said and done for verification purposes.

 

I’ve wasted too much energy on this.

Not trying to bust your balls at all I’m just saying that your going to make yourself go crazy trying to change someone else’s opinion. Best thing you can do, wait for your forecast to verify and then say I told you so...if your forecast is correct!

[TacomaWaWx]

58 degrees currently and 0.06” so far this morning.

[MossMan]

.23” so far on the day, 3.75” on the month.

Currently moderate rain and 56 degrees.