September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

I pretty much agree, but I hate the media jumping on the blob = warm winter bandwagon. Getting it out of the way will get rid of that.

 

That makes no sense. If the blob dies and a cold winter follows, they’ll just believe it was the blob all along.

 

The best way to “get rid of that” myth is for a cold winter to happen with the blob still there.

[snow_wizard]

In case any of you wondering where I'm at on this winter....here is the nutshell version.

 

 

At least one very cold month....most likely December with January a close second (maybe both).

 

Reasonable shot at coldest winter of the 21st century so far.

 

 

Everything looks fabulous at this point.  I think the professional forecasters are going to have acknowledge that solar activity does play a big role in winter forecasting after this one.  There has also been enough volcanic activity this year to play a role.  Volcanic sunsets are being reported as far north as parts of the United States.  Then you add neutral ENSO (maybe leaning cold) and a favorable QBO to compliment the ENSO state and I really like our chances.  No doubt the coming pattern also adds fuel to the fire.

[Timmy Supercell]

 

That makes no sense. If the blob dies and a cold winter follows, they’ll just believe it was the blob all along.

 

The best way to “get rid of that” myth is for a cold winter to happen with the blob still there.

 

When the last Super Blob was at it's peak I had my snowiest month in this last decade (Dec 2015). Though CNN will write this off as #AlternativeFacts. 

[Jesse]

No I’m being serious and am open to other thoughts and ideas as I will be the first to say I am no expert on this stuff. I agree with a lot of things you say in regards to some of the tree die recently and have spent a lot of time thinking about the causes but have not read much into it. I have read into the affects climate change is supposed to have on the NW climate and will have to dig up some of what I have read.

 

I know you probably won’t like who this one is written by but here is a good summary of where I land on a lot of my thoughts.

https://cliffmass.bl...ficant.html?m=1

 

This article says nothing about our summers getting wetter (he actually mentions them getting slightly drier), or about rain killing more trees than heat, drought or wildfire. Which seem to be the main points you've been trying to make.

 

The blog post is a fairly reasonable take on wildfire trends in the NW and the role climate change may or may not be playing (with typical Cliff axe grinding of course), but it really doesn't do much to support your main arguments. If anything it detracts from them.

[snow_wizard]

 

That makes no sense. If the blob dies and a cold winter follows, they’ll just believe it was the blob all along.

 

The best way to “get rid of that” myth is for a cold winter to happen with the blob still there.

 

Good point.

[Phil]

Forgot where I found it, but here it is anyway.

 

Question is, where is it going from here?

 

Note the downwelling OKW building in the WPAC (since upwelling terminated ~ 8/20) and the arrival of warmer waters propagating from the east w/ the completing return cycle.

 

[ShawniganLake]

[Jesse]

I am looking forward to the meeting.  It will be interesting to talk to somebody on your side where we have some common ground.  I don't think you're as whacked out as some people emerging on the left though.

 

I'm still down for Olympia. Let's try to make it happen before the first snowflakes fall!

[Blizzard777]

I thought this was interesting. Definitely going to be getting colder up in the cascades and snowing soon.

PCT hikers beware!!!

[Phil]

I know Phil is going to hate me for this, but the GFS is advertising a much more Ninaish atmosphere emerging over the tropical Pacific in the coming days. Pressure drop over Australia and anomalous mid latitude ridges across both the N and S Pacific.

Dude, I love your enthusiasm and I wish you the best, even if it means I get trolled into oblivion here.

 

I just don’t see what you’re seeing. I see a sprawling area of subsidence across the Maritime Continent/IPWP and divergence over the WHEM/W-IO.

 

And that’s fine..it can teleconnect to a cool pattern out there in the autumn under the proper state of subseasonal AAM transfer/QBO. It’s certainly been a healthier intraseasonal pass than I was predicting a few weeks ago. But that doesn’t make it “La Niña-like”. At least that’s my take. But..I could be wrong.

[Phil]

In case any of you wondering where I'm at on this winter....here is the nutshell version.

 

 

At least one very cold month....most likely December with January a close second (maybe both).

 

Reasonable shot at coldest winter of the 21st century so far.

 

 

Everything looks fabulous at this point. I think the professional forecasters are going to have acknowledge that solar activity does play a big role in winter forecasting after this one. There has also been enough volcanic activity this year to play a role. Volcanic sunsets are being reported as far north as parts of the United States. Then you add neutral ENSO (maybe leaning cold) and a favorable QBO to compliment the ENSO state and I really like our chances. No doubt the coming pattern also adds fuel to the fire.

I’m with you on solar. And I also like the idea of a cold month or at least a legitimate midwinter Arctic event or two (none of the half-azzed stuff of recent years) given the tendency towards a weaker NPAC jet and highly meridional wavetrain establishing early on.

 

I do think you’re misinterpreting the ENSO signal, but we’ll get to see how that unfolds with time.

[MossMan]

Just crossed the 4” mark for the month. .50” on the day, .4.02” on the month.

 

Wet.

[Timmy Supercell]

Lightly raining. Nice day.

[jcmcgaffey]

This article says nothing about our summers getting wetter (he actually mentions them getting slightly drier), or about rain killing more trees than heat, drought or wildfire. Which seem to be the main points you've been trying to make.

 

The blog post is a fairly reasonable take on wildfire trends in the NW and the role climate change may or may not be playing (with typical Cliff axe grinding of course), but it really doesn't do much to support your main arguments. If anything it detracts from them.

. That one just spoke on a slow increase in our annual precip and that the recent dry summers are just a natural short term trend. It is pretty common knowledge that more trees are killed from heavy rain events/ storms (including mudslides, wind, and flooding) than from drought. And there is a stronger correlation to stronger storms and heavier rain events in the long term and not drought.

[Front Ranger]

Dude, Jared would rather castrate himself than give me credit for a seasonal forecast.

I had totally given you credit for calling for a near normal precip summer, wetter than most recent summers. My call was for something similar to 2016, so we both would have been close on the same page.

 

But then you said your call was actually for wetter than normal, and from May- September.

[Timmy Supercell]

Opinions vs other opinions. what can possibly go wrong.

[Front Ranger]

There is more to the story. Just like some days are darker than other days.

 

On a broad scale... and based on personal experience... I think Phil made a good call in the spirit of long range forecasting.

It doesn't make much sense to judge long range forecasts on backyard weather...

[TT-SEA]

It doesn't make much sense to judge long range forecasts on backyard weather...

Its more than just my backyard. The pattern this summer was much more conducive to bringing in moisture. As many have pointed out... it was also more humid than normal and cloudier than normal.

 

And the rain was more frequent than normal. Particularly from June 18th onward.

 

Good call in my opinion.

[Jesse]

. That one just spoke on a slow increase in our annual precip and that the recent dry summers are just a natural short term trend. It is pretty common knowledge that more trees are killed from heavy rain events/ storms (including mudslides, wind, and flooding) than from drought. And there is a stronger correlation to stronger storms and heavier rain events in the long term and not drought.

You aren’t making any sense and keep changing your argument as you go (and I’m not even sure if you are fully aware of it), so I am tapping out. Good day to you. Let’s try to avoid discussions like this in the future if we can.

[TacomaWaWx]

PCT hikers beware!!!

I did a couple of camping trips on the PCT this summer in August. You wouldn’t want to be up there starting next weekend without proper gear with the nights getting cold and snow in the higher parts of the trail looking possible.

[Timmy Supercell]

You aren’t making any sense and keep changing your argument as you go (and I’m not even sure if you are fully aware of it), so I am tapping out. Good day to you. Let’s try to avoid discussions like this in the future if we can.

 

. On this forum good luck with that .

[Jesse]

. On this forum good luck with that .

All it takes is one party deciding not to discuss for a discussion not to happen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not ready to make a winter prediction, but 2012-13 is my worst case scenario...

[Timmy Supercell]

Not ready to make a winter prediction, but 2012-13 is my worst case scenario...

 

Yeah that's along my line of thinking too. I at least had above average snowfall in December but J/F/M could have been better in the snow department. 

 

14-15 would just be too extreme of a worst case and that wasn't even that long ago.

[jcmcgaffey]

You aren’t making any sense and keep changing your argument as you go (and I’m not even sure if you are fully aware of it), so I am tapping out. Good day to you. Let’s try to avoid discussions like this in the future if we can.

what’s funny is that I am the only one providing any thoughts and information you just sit back and make accusations without any explanation as to why. Tell me what in my argument is changing?

[Jesse]

what’s funny is that I am the only one providing any thoughts and information you just sit back and make accusations without any explanation as to why. Tell me what in my argument is changing?

I’ve provided numerous detailed posts outlining my thoughts. Most of which you have just ignored and gone back to your inaccurate talking points. And what little outside information you have produced doesn’t even back up your points.

[jcmcgaffey]

I’ve provided numerous detailed posts outlining my thoughts. Most of which you have just ignored and gone back to your inaccurate talking points. And what little outside information you have produced doesn’t even back up your points.

You still didn’t tell me what in my argument changed. Maybe it is easier to start with a summary list and that you can say what you disagree with:

1) the summers are not going to keep getting drier

2) The recent dry summers were not caused by climate change

3) Storms are going to be stronger and we will see more heavy rain events and temps will get warmer due to climate change

4) More trees are killed by storms (rain/wind) than drought or dry weather

5) Strictly my conclusion that if storms are going to increase and are currently the #1 weather related destruction of trees that this is where we would see the highest increase of destruction of trees. This point is just a thought and a bit of playing devils advocate.

[Deweydog]

.

[Timmy Supercell]

. storms getting stronger and more frequent is actually the opposite of what's been happening in parts of the world .

 

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[snow_wizard]

On the subject of tree die off...I have been gold mining in the in the Wenatchee Mountains, just NE of Liberty (with just enough success to keep it fun) since the mid 1980s, and have noticed a large percentage of the huge Douglas Fir trees up there have been dying.  There are still some healthy very large trees left, but the die off is almost certainly exceeding the replacement rate.  It is a dry enough climate that some sage brush exists up there so it's a highly unusual situation to have massive Douglas Fir trees in such a dry climate zone.  I think it's a very hardy subspecies with very slow growth rate so the big trees certainly got a foothold during the little ice age.  The die off is probably due to higher temperatures and somewhat drier conditions overall than were present when these trees got their foothold.  I think it's all natural climate variability, but that remains to be seen I guess.

[TT-SEA]

What about ice storms????

 

That ice storm a couple years ago caused way more damage to trees on the western slope of the Cascades out here than any drought recently.

 

Nature is cruel. Trees die and adapt.

[snow_wizard]

You still didn’t tell me what in my argument changed. Maybe it is easier to start with a summary list and that you can say what you disagree with:

1) the summers are not going to keep getting drier

2) The recent dry summers were not caused by climate change

3) Storms are going to be stronger and we will see more heavy rain events and temps will get warmer due to climate change

4) More trees are killed by storms (rain/wind) than drought or dry weather

5) Strictly my conclusion that if storms are going to increase and are currently the #1 weather related destruction of trees that this is where we would see the highest increase of destruction of trees. This point is just a thought and a bit of playing devils advocate.

 

The die off I mentioned in my post is not from trees being damaged by storms or excessive wetness.  It has gradually evolved over decades.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 0.30” today so far and 2.60” on the month.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not ready to make a winter prediction, but 2012-13 is my worst case scenario...

Is that dud in your ANALog list?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We have surpassed 4” this morning if the ACIS records are correct.

[Timmy Supercell]

 .  skies are looking more unstable  . 

[Jesse]

You still didn’t tell me what in my argument changed. Maybe it is easier to start with a summary list and that you can say what you disagree with:

1) the summers are not going to keep getting drier

2) The recent dry summers were not caused by climate change

3) Storms are going to be stronger and we will see more heavy rain events and temps will get warmer due to climate change

4) More trees are killed by storms (rain/wind) than drought or dry weather

5) Strictly my conclusion that if storms are going to increase and are currently the #1 weather related destruction of trees that this is where we would see the highest increase of destruction of trees. This point is just a thought and a bit of playing devils advocate.

Nice list. But these all look like assumptions and personal opinions rather than scientifically based facts and predictions. And the further down the list you go you start getting into opinions and assumptions bolstered by previously stated opinions and assumptions.

 

I can link you to some actual peer reviewed literature on the subject once I get back to my home computer tonight, if you’d like. But considering the fact that you even admit you are sort of just playing devil’s advocate in the last point shouldn’t make it hard for you to see why I feel like spending any more energy on this is essentially just a waste of my time.

[Jesse]

On the subject of tree die off...I have been gold mining in the in the Wenatchee Mountains, just NE of Liberty (with just enough success to keep it fun) since the mid 1980s, and have noticed a large percentage of the huge Douglas Fir trees up there have been dying. There are still some healthy very large trees left, but the die off is almost certainly exceeding the replacement rate. It is a dry enough climate that some sage brush exists up there so it's a highly unusual situation to have massive Douglas Fir trees in such a dry climate zone. I think it's a very hardy subspecies with very slow growth rate so the big trees certainly got a foothold during the little ice age. The die off is probably due to higher temperatures and somewhat drier conditions overall than were present when these trees got their foothold. I think it's all natural climate variability, but that remains to be seen I guess.

This is some interesting stuff. I have actually read that the seed time for many of those giant Douglas firs high in the Wenatchee mountains (well above their current growth zone) was actually BEFORE the little ice age, back during the Medieval warm period.

[Requiem]

18Z 850 temps are most certainly warmer than last run, but I'm not sure about the surface.

[jcmcgaffey]

The die off I mentioned in my post is not from trees being damaged by storms or excessive wetness. It has gradually evolved over decades.

. Ya I understood and have noticed that as well. I am not arguing that excessive wetness is killing trees although I imagine that could be a possibility in general.