September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

Between the fact that we’re in the deepest solar minimum since the Dalton, warm neutral ENSO, and the favorable blocking pattern in the high latitudes I would be really surprised if this winter was a dud. I think we’re going to see at least something.

[MossMan]

Currently heavy drizzle and 52 degrees. .07” on the day so far, 4.12” on the month.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

52F and cloudy. We'll see if I'm able to mow today.

[TacomaWaWx]

We had something like 35” here last winter but that isn’t really far removed from an average seasonal total, it just happened to all fall at once. I would not be surprised if this winter was snowier here but I’m not expecting it to be either.

Wow you guys must average something like 25-30 inches a year then? Tacoma’s average is roughly 5.5”, I’m expecting roughly that amount atleast this winter, which I wouldn’t complain about.

[TacomaWaWx]

Currently heavy drizzle and 52 degrees. .07” on the day so far, 4.12” on the month.

Wrong day to live in the north sound if you like sunshine. 57 and sunny a beautiful morning here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wow you guys must average something like 25-30 inches a year then? Tacoma’s average is roughly 5.5”, I’m expecting roughly that amount atleast this winter, which I wouldn’t complain about.

 

I don't think there's very many neutral ENSO & low solar years in our records that are duds.

[TacomaWaWx]

I don't think there's very many neutral ENSO & low solar years in our records that are duds.

I don’t think it’ll be a dud. I think it’ll probably end up being average snowfall or more but we will see. If it ended up being another DEC 08 or FEB 19 that would be pretty amazing.

[ShawniganLake]

Wow you guys must average something like 25-30 inches a year then? Tacoma’s average is roughly 5.5”, I’m expecting roughly that amount atleast this winter, which I wouldn’t complain about.

Yes I think it’s officially 27” but that’s probably a little on the light side. Last winter’s 35” wouldn’t even be a top 5 winter for this century so far.

[TT-SEA]

Wrong day to live in the north sound if you like sunshine. 57 and sunny a beautiful morning here.

 

Not for long... look at the satellite.

[El_Nina]

The grass has grown to the point of mowing now, even in the spots that turned brown.

[ShawniganLake]

Not for long... look at the satellite.

It’s raining here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, I don't see any support for a dud winter coming up, but I suppose it could happen. I had a good feeling about 2004-05 and it was a crapfest. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Not for long... look at the satellite.

Lol the sunshine was nice while it lasted already cloudy here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Should be much sunnier down here over the next couple days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z is much cooler.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

12z is much cooler.

 

lol you just beat me to it, I was about to say the same thing. Looks like more of that precip is taken into western OR rather than western WA. Shows some cold nights next weekend.

[Kayla]

12z GFS is incredibly cold.

[Jesse]

[Kayla]

What a roller coaster.

 

I haven’t seen the run yet, but I’m guessing it delays the onset of the cold by a few days compared to what was originally shown. Which may not be the best sign, but also seems like pretty common behavior for the models when there’s a big pattern change.

 

Yeah the brunt of the cold doesn't hit until Sunday now which the models seem to be agreeing on now. Lots of cold offshore flow for you guys and plenty of 30's. Gives me 1954 (PNW) and 1950 vibes here.

[TT-SEA]

Nice GFS run... very little precip and lots of sun.

 

Next week looks gorgeous as we transition into a more ridgy pattern.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gets toasty in early October though!

[ShawniganLake]

The old model pull back before the hammer drop. Classic model behaviour before a big blast.

[Phil]

Tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean is forecast to reach Cat4 strength.

 

The most recent Septembers with any hurricane strength cyclones in the IO were..drumroll..1997 and 1972. Both super-niños.

 

Just in case anyone is wondering whether the present regime of tropical forcing is El Niño like.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Gets toasty in early October though!

Hopefully some chilly nights.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean is forecast to reach Cat4 strength.

 

The most recent Septembers with any hurricane strength cyclones in the IO were..drumroll..1997 and 1972. Both super-niños.

 

Just in case anyone is wondering whether the present regime of tropical forcing is El Niño like.

 

Early Dec 1972 sounds delightful.

 

1997-98 south of Wilsonville on the other hand...

[Front Ranger]

Tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean is forecast to reach Cat4 strength.

 

The most recent Septembers with any hurricane strength cyclones in the IO were..drumroll..1997 and 1972. Both super-niños.

 

Just in case anyone is wondering whether the present regime of tropical forcing is El Niño like.

 

This is exactly the proof I've been waiting for.

[Front Ranger]

The CMC is even colder than the GFS, especially for Oregon. Deeper with the trough.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[El_Nina]

The CMC is even colder than the GFS, especially for Oregon. Deeper with the trough.

I'm going hunting in the blue mountains above 4000ft next week. It's looking like this could be the first deer season it snows in over 10 years. They've been having really late start to winters there. It's even been awhile since it snowed during elk season and the last 3 seasons of elk were warmer than the average deer season(which is over a month before it).

[Jesse]

12z ensembles are much improved. Maybe this thing will come back from the dead.

[Front Ranger]

I'm going hunting in the blue mountains above 4000ft next week. It's looking like this could be the first deer season it snows in over 10 years. They've been having really late start to winters there. It's even been awhile since it snowed during elk season and the last 3 seasons of elk were warmer than the average deer season(which is over a month before it).

 

Definitely looks like this could be a historic event for that area. At this point, places like Meacham and La Grande flirting with benchmark low temps for this early seems like a real possibility.

[MossMan]

Currently moderate rain and dark as I look out over I-5 from my office.

[Deweydog]

Might have to kick the heater on next week! Lol!

[ShawniganLake]

Might have to kick the heater on next week! Lol!

Windows closed here.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks like the 12Z GFS.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF still shows basically a sunny weekend for the Seattle area.... with some showers down south in Oregon on Sunday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles looked colder for next weekend too. Nice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1997 was going into a major Nino.

[Deweydog]

1997 was going into a major Nino.

Titanic was also released. I can’t imagine a repeat of such a box office SMASH this late fall/early winter.

[TT-SEA]

For some reason... the cloud map does not have state boundaries this morning.  

 

But you get the idea... the pattern early next week on the 12Z ECMWF is crystal clear for western WA and OR.