September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

There is a big Shyamalan twist at the end of 'The Village'.

 

Check it out... it was an entertaining movie.   

 

That's actually the only Shyamalan twist I figured out early on. 

[Front Ranger]

He was really good as the president in Independence Day.

 

https://youtu.be/apQ42zrojyg

[Deweydog]

That's actually the only Shyamalan twist I figured out early on.

Not impressed.

 

Phil figured it out before Nighty-Night even wrote it.

[Timmy Supercell]

I specifically remembered guessing correctly how it ended less than 15 minutes after it began.

 

The title of the movie should have given away the ending 

 

But the delivery and the acting is an entirely separate matter though... 

[Deweydog]

The title of the movie should have given away the ending

 

But the delivery and the acting is an entirely separate matter though...

Philip Seymour Hoffman was fantastic as Rose.

[TacomaWaWx]

Latest gfs run is impressive for the whole region in general in late September.

[TacomaWaWx]

That Siberian cold pool looks pretty d**n nice too.

My family back in Montana is prepping for snow right now! Pretty interesting stuff going on right now across the NW US while the eastern US burns up lol.

[Front Ranger]

Bill Pullman/Bill Paxton what's the difference.

 

My favorite Bill Paxton movie was Aliens.

 

Agreed. Followed by Twister.

 

I know, I know...not a meteorologically sound movie. But it was a goddam 90's blockbuster that helped fuel my teenage weather weenie interests.

[Deweydog]

Question now becomes whether the blob will be gone by next Sunday as to allow the Arctic freight train to arrive as advertised.

 

Should be quite the “Cliff” hanger.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z not backing down. Low of 29 at my location in a week.

[Front Ranger]

Latest gfs run is impressive for the whole region in general in late September.

 

Cold air has reached the border at hour 96!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RIP Bill Pullman.

[TacomaWaWx]

It’s rained pretty much all afternoon but only 0.03” has fallen. 0.04” so far today. High of 61 so far currently 59.

[BLI snowman]

For reference, the 10 coldest September 850mb airmasses over SLE from 1950-present, 12z Euro would make a run at #1

 

Rank H8temp Year Month Day Hour(Z) WMO 1 ‐2.2 1970 9 24 12 72694 2 ‐1.8 1972 9 27 12 72694 3 ‐1 1961 9 29 12 72694 4 ‐0.4 1958 9 23 12 72694 5 ‐0.3 1999 9 26 12 72694 6 ‐0.1 1971 9 29 12 72694 7 0 1955 9 20 17 72698 8 0 1972 9 23 12 72694 9 0 1972 9 24 12 72694 10 0 1993 9 20 12 72694

[jcmcgaffey]

I guess one benefit from our recent hot and dry summers. https://komonews.com/news/local/fall-colors-peaking-out-in-western-washington

[TT-SEA]

I guess one benefit from our recent hot and dry summers. https://komonews.com/news/local/fall-colors-peaking-out-in-western-washington

 

 

The opposite of what some have been saying...

 

The hot and dry summers in the last few years made the fall colors much more intense. Because we've experienced cooler and wetter weather recently, it's possible the trees won't be as colorful as years past. Even still, experts say the fall colors should be typical this year.

[jcmcgaffey]

The opposite of what some have been saying...

 

The hot and dry summers in the last few years made the fall colors much more intense. Because we've experienced cooler and wetter weather recently, it's possible the trees won't be as colorful as years past. Even still, experts say the fall colors should be typical this year.

Last fall’s colors were the best I have ever seen by a long shot.

[TT-SEA]

Last fall’s colors were the best I have ever seen by a long shot.

 

I thought they were a little muted out here... but still nice.   

 

This was 10/21 last year:

 

 

[BLI snowman]

Bill Pullman/Bill Paxton what's the difference.

 

My favorite Bill Paxton movie was Aliens.

 

I loved him in True Lies.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

He said he sent you his nude selfies from Haida Gwaii so I let it go.

All these years I had assumed he was circumcised. Life is full of surprises!

Not even going to discuss the surprise you sent me in return. #foreverscarred

It helps prevent frostbite.

 

"The 53 year old Dr. Melvin was a fit and healthy tall lean non-smoker, who was also circumcised.

 

Like all his previous winter jogs, his run was entirely routine from 7:00 to 7:25 pm. But around 7:25 pm, he noticed an unpleasant painful burning sensation at the tip of his penis. He was only five minutes away from home so he kept on running even though the pain became more intense, increasing with each stride until finally he arrived home at 7.30 pm. Ten minutes later at 7:40 pm, he had stripped in the warmth of his centrally heated room and could see that the glans of his penis was freezing cold and red. While he couldn't feel any light touch on the tip of his penis, more forceful handling gave him an immediate feeling of tenderness.

 

In the case of Dr. Hershkowitz, he figured that the frostbite had lasted for only five minutes, so he decided to treat it himself. "In a straddled standing position, the patient created a cradle for rapid re-warming by covering the penile tip with one cupped palm. Response was rapid and complete. Symptoms subsided 15 minutes after onset of treatment, and the physical findings returned to normal."

 

https://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2003/04/01/803095.htm

[Timmy Supercell]

Agreed. Followed by Twister.

 

I know, I know...not a meteorologically sound movie. But it was a goddam 90's blockbuster that helped fuel my teenage weather weenie interests.

 

Very few disaster films are all that scientifically sound. The Day After Tomorrow and 2012 were flops, and I did give those a chance. 

 

The ones I can watch more than once or twice are Category 6 + 7. Randy Quaid plays "Tornado Tommy" storm chaser, how can you pass this up.

Tornado is another fun one, came out the same year as Twister and Bruce Campbell is the main character. 

 

And then there's the other breed of movies that are intentionally unrealistic B-flicks like the Sharknado's. Ok, I am guilty of loving those to death, got myself the 6-film blu ray collection just recently. Hey, there is a cult following for movies like that, otherwise there would not be more than 2 of them 

 

Now one that they actually tried to make meteorologically sound, would probably be "Into The Storm", think that's a 2014 movie. One of the few weather flicks I own on blu ray.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For reference, the 10 coldest September 850mb airmasses over SLE from 1950-present, 12z Euro would make a run at #1

 

Rank H8temp Year Month Day Hour(Z) WMO 1 ‐2.2 1970 9 24 12 72694 2 ‐1.8 1972 9 27 12 72694 3 ‐1 1961 9 29 12 72694 4 ‐0.4 1958 9 23 12 72694 5 ‐0.3 1999 9 26 12 72694 6 ‐0.1 1971 9 29 12 72694 7 0 1955 9 20 17 72698 8 0 1972 9 23 12 72694 9 0 1972 9 24 12 72694 10 0 1993 9 20 12 72694

 

I am going to be keeping an eye on this! Would be incredible if we could crack the top 10 for the first time in two decades. Only one winter that was a complete dud on there, and then two not great, but not total duds. Certainly would not be a bad sign of things to come. 

[Deweydog]

It helps prevent frostbite.

 

"The 53 year old Dr. Melvin was a fit and healthy tall lean non-smoker, who was also circumcised.

 

Like all his previous winter jogs, his run was entirely routine from 7:00 to 7:25 pm. But around 7:25 pm, he noticed an unpleasant painful burning sensation at the tip of his penis. He was only five minutes away from home so he kept on running even though the pain became more intense, increasing with each stride until finally he arrived home at 7.30 pm. Ten minutes later at 7:40 pm, he had stripped in the warmth of his centrally heated room and could see that the glans of his penis was freezing cold and red. While he couldn't feel any light touch on the tip of his penis, more forceful handling gave him an immediate feeling of tenderness.

 

In the case of Dr. Hershkowitz, he figured that the frostbite had lasted for only five minutes, so he decided to treat it himself. "In a straddled standing position, the patient created a cradle for rapid re-warming by covering the penile tip with one cupped palm. Response was rapid and complete. Symptoms subsided 15 minutes after onset of treatment, and the physical findings returned to normal."

 

https://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2003/04/01/803095.htm

Great post.

 

And a great cautionary tale given the progs for early next week.

[GHweatherChris]

So the word penis can be seen on this forum but not f*ck? That is some serious word discrimination right there.

[Jesse]

Last fall’s colors were the best I have ever seen by a long shot.

 

The best I ever remember were in 2008, a chilly fall following a pretty average summer.

[jakeinthevalley]

It helps prevent frostbite.

 

"The 53 year old Dr. Melvin was a fit and healthy tall lean non-smoker, who was also circumcised.

 

Like all his previous winter jogs, his run was entirely routine from 7:00 to 7:25 pm. But around 7:25 pm, he noticed an unpleasant painful burning sensation at the tip of his penis. He was only five minutes away from home so he kept on running even though the pain became more intense, increasing with each stride until finally he arrived home at 7.30 pm. Ten minutes later at 7:40 pm, he had stripped in the warmth of his centrally heated room and could see that the glans of his penis was freezing cold and red. While he couldn't feel any light touch on the tip of his penis, more forceful handling gave him an immediate feeling of tenderness.

 

In the case of Dr. Hershkowitz, he figured that the frostbite had lasted for only five minutes, so he decided to treat it himself. "In a straddled standing position, the patient created a cradle for rapid re-warming by covering the penile tip with one cupped palm. Response was rapid and complete. Symptoms subsided 15 minutes after onset of treatment, and the physical findings returned to normal."

 

https://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2003/04/01/803095.htm

 

"by age 54, he went blind"

[Jesse]

An interesting tidbit. Assuming the low temps on Mark's latest 7-day are correct, PDX will end up with its warmest average September low on record this month (57.2). This is including two VERY chilly lows in the low to mid 40s at the end of the 7-day.

 

The old record is 56.8, set in 2013.

[Phil]

My family back in Montana is prepping for snow right now! Pretty interesting stuff going on right now across the NW US while the eastern US burns up lol.

That’s an understatement, lol.

 

Was 94*F today. Only gets worse with time..could approach 100*F by early Oct. Just relentless.

 

[Phil]

For reference, the 10 coldest September 850mb airmasses over SLE from 1950-present, 12z Euro would make a run at #1

 

Rank H8temp Year Month Day Hour(Z) WMO 1 ‐2.2 1970 9 24 12 72694 2 ‐1.8 1972 9 27 12 72694 3 ‐1 1961 9 29 12 72694 4 ‐0.4 1958 9 23 12 72694 5 ‐0.3 1999 9 26 12 72694 6 ‐0.1 1971 9 29 12 72694 7 0 1955 9 20 17 72698 8 0 1972 9 23 12 72694 9 0 1972 9 24 12 72694 10 0 1993 9 20 12 72694

If it can happen in September, it can happen in January.

[Phil]

I am going to be keeping an eye on this! Would be incredible if we could crack the top 10 for the first time in two decades. Only one winter that was a complete dud on there, and then two not great, but not total duds. Certainly would not be a bad sign of things to come.

And that dud (1999/00) was a strong niña/solar max. Not even in the picture as an analog.

 

Both 1958/59 and 1972/73 are worth watching as okay-ish forcing analogs, but with caution, for obvious reasons.

[ShawniganLake]

About 1/3” of rain here today.

[Jesse]

If it can happen in September, it can happen in January.

 

It's not gonna snow and arctic with 850mbs of -2.2C. Dummies.  <_>

 

-Dewey

[Omegaraptor]

Solar minimum.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

For some reason... the cloud map does not have state boundaries this morning.

 

But you get the idea... the pattern early next week on the 12Z ECMWF is crystal clear for western WA and OR.

 

 

I would prefer wetter stormier weather right now but that's a beautiful pattern. Cool and crisp.

[Phil]

The opposite of what some have been saying...

 

The hot and dry summers in the last few years made the fall colors much more intense. Because we've experienced cooler and wetter weather recently, it's possible the trees won't be as colorful as years past. Even still, experts say the fall colors should be typical this year.

I can confirm the effect of prolonged warm/dry conditions on foliage. Trees waving the white flag left and right, while they were still green under the warm/wet conditions last year.

 

Probably a month ahead of 2018 at this point.

[jcmcgaffey]

The best I ever remember were in 2008, a chilly fall following a pretty average summer.

I am more thinking of east side of the cascades where I go every year to check out the colors and I think last summer/fall was actually wet on that side of the mountains. I always thought cold and dry with some wet helped the fall colors.

[Jesse]

I am more thinking of east side of the cascades where I go every year to check out the colors and I think last summer/fall was actually wet on that side of the mountains. I always thought cold and dry with some wet helped the fall colors.

I think you nailed it. Cold and dry with just enough wet (especially earlier on in the season) brings about nice fall colors in October.

 

I don’t think hot and dry summers really have any correlation though, despite what that article says. Unless the author is mistaking color change from stressed out deciduous trees late in the summer for pretty autumn foliage.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

If that were late Dec...

Very cold anomalies.

 

[BLI snowman]

If it can happen in September, it can happen in January.

 

Interestingly, 2012 is the coldest January airmass at SLE in the last three plus decades. And it still only ranks 29th on the monthly list (and sounding data actually only goes back to 1954 for SLE). Pathetic month.

[Jesse]

I can confirm the effect of prolonged warm/dry conditions on foliage. Trees waving the white flag left and right, while they were still green under the warm/wet conditions last year.

 

Probably a month ahead of 2018 at this point.

Trees losing their leaves early due to heat and drought stress is a different thing than typical fall colors.