September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[jcmcgaffey]

I wonder if SEA will have a low below 50 with this upcoming cold snap...

[Timmy Supercell]

. .  Wow. Some mammatus formed behind that heavy shower we had a little bit ago. I don't think I ever heard thunder though.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some nice showers cruising around right now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Great pics Mr. Supercell. 

[GHweatherChris]

Anyone have any oak trees we can cut dowm.

 

Might need some wood to smoke some meats?

[TacomaWaWx]

63/58 day today 0.31” today and 2.61” for the month. Clear beautiful evening now, we will see if it stays clear or not overnight maybe it’ll get fairly cool tonight.

[Deweydog]

BIG set of 00z’s coming up!

 

#settingthetone

[jcmcgaffey]

Anyone have any oak trees we can cut dowm.

 

Might need some wood to smoke some meats?

I have some but it’s too wet:(

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anyone have any oak trees we can cut dowm.

 

Might need some wood to smoke some meats?

 

My Dad has one that fell a couple years ago he needs cut up. I'm thinking of sicking my in-laws on that one much. 

[GHweatherChris]

My Dad has one that fell a couple years ago he needs cut up. I'm thinking of sicking my in-laws on that one much.

I was half joking, I use Traegers but am looking at a stick burner and oak is the way to go for Texas style brisket!! If I had a stick burner already I would make a play on that tree.

[GHweatherChris]

[Jesse]

Could it have been back in the late 1200s/early 1300s at the tail end of the MWP, when the ISM was weakening rapidly and seasonality was significantly reduced with warm/very wet conditions across NW North America?

 

A multitude of proxies suggest there was a 100-150yr period of almost uninterrupted +EPO/SW flow as high latitude temperatures were plummeting (along with NATL and IO SSTs). It was such a different climate state then..eventually that climatological gradient tightened and it went cold/wet then frigid/dry in the PNW by the mid/late 1400s, as far as I know.

Fascinating. Yeah many of them (especially the ones in the Teanaway region that I am specifically talking about) are 700-800 years old. So that would fit well.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I was half joking, I use Traegers but am looking at a stick burner and oak is the way to go for Texas style brisket!! If I had a stick burner already I would make a play on that tree.

I will have to try the oak. I use apple and cherry for most meat.

[Jesse]

In the paleo record, warming periods have always coincided with an expansion of the Pacific Hadley Cell and 4CH, which would almost certainly lead to drier summers in the PNW should that trend continue. It’s one of the most consistent relationships we know of. So I think you’re wrong on this one.

 

That being said, that massive system of circulation varies wildly on its own over long periods of time, and much of the swing from the LIA to WWII was likely natural in origin.

 

 

In the general sense I think this is true..the 2014-18 period was highly anomalous, but it existed within a long term background state trending towards widened ITCZ/Hadley Cells/+NAM, which has been ongoing since ~ 1700AD. So you have to figure that into the equation.

 

 

This is NOT a given at the regional level. Assuming the climate warms as GCMs expect (lol) there will be very significant differences from region to region..some areas well even cool (such as the NATL/southern Greenland).

 

 

That depends where and when your analysis takes place.

Well said. A nice point by point take down. Of course, no response from the gaffer. .

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 0.71" on the day and 4.90" on the month. 

[GHweatherChris]

I will have to try the oak. I use apple and cherry for most meat.

I find that apple and cherry really don't allow the glorious flavor of brisket to shine through, overpowers it, oak is money.

 

Apple and cherry for chicken works great IMO.

 

Do you use a stick burner or other?

[TacomaWaWx]

Well said. A nice point by point take down. Of course, no response from the gaffer. .

.Im sure he will.. think of something.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I find that apple and cherry really don't allow the glorious flavor of brisket to shine through, overpowers it, oak is money.

Apple and cherry for chicken works great IMO.

Do you use a stick burner or other?

I have a traeger but have not been completely happy with the amount of smoke flavor I get with it. Works great for prime rib and chicken but not so much for salmon. Tough to beat the old big chief smoker for the fish.

[MossMan]

Getting dark rather early these days.

 

Currently 58 and cloudy. .53” on the day.

 

And please by all means point out any dead trees you might see.

[GHweatherChris]

I have a traeger but have not been completely happy with the amount of smoke flavor I get with it. Works great for prime rib and chicken but not so much for salmon. Tough to beat the old big chief smoker for the fish.

Old school definitely the way to go for fish.

 

I typically do long slow cooks and get better smoke flavor than the Texas bbq joints i visited a couple years ago around Dallas.

 

Nice evening here, 55 and cloudy.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Getting dark rather early these days.

Currently 58 and cloudy. .53” on the day.

And please by all means point out any dead trees you might see.

Just about time to get the old VHS tapes out of a forecast from 1990?

[ShawniganLake]

Just had a guy drop off a load of firewood and he took down my dead cedrus deodara. He is a contract logger and salvage operator. Lots of dead cedar out there apparently. And partial die back on deciduous trees like maple. He thought drought related but made no mention of rain related deaths.

[Jesse]

Had a great afternoon picking chanterelles in the northern Oregon coast range today. Came out with quite the haul!

 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Had a great afternoon picking chanterelles in the northern Oregon coast range today. Came out with quite the haul!

 

BE9D3B97-2DD0-42BC-A9BD-7032A340C4B1.png

 

8801ED0C-8C65-481B-B7F0-E35AF9AFF55A.png

 

Looked fun! Just don't have too much of a trip... 

[Jesse]

[El_Nina]

0.55" for the day now. I think the ground is gonna be saturated until next May.

[Phil]

All these years I had assumed he was circumcised. Life is full of surprises!

Not even going to discuss the surprise you sent me in return. #foreverscarred

[Timmy Supercell]

0.55" for the day now. I think the ground is gonna be saturated until next May.

 

And somehow the next year will become the worst fire season ever, every time. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My buddy picked about 40 lbs of shrooms the other day... I like them, maybe not 40lbs worth of like tho...

[Jesse]

My buddy picked about 40 lbs of shrooms the other day... I like them, maybe not 40lbs worth of like tho...

 

We got about 12 lbs. About perfect for having some ourselves and sharing with some friends and family. 

 

Chanterelles go for $15.99 a pound at the store last time I checked, so you can do the math...

[GHweatherChris]

We got about 12 lbs. About perfect for having some ourselves and sharing with some friends and family.

 

Chanterelles go for $15.99 a pound at the store last time I checked, so you can do the math...

I have tried to like mushrooms, raw and cooked multiple ways, can't do it.

[Jesse]

I have tried to like mushrooms, raw and cooked multiple ways, can't do it.

 

I know a lot of people like that. It seems you either love them or you hate them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking back over the last few summers and it is easy to see why this summer seemed so cool even though it was still solidly above average...

 

90+ days at SLE

 

2015: 29

2016: 20

2017:32

2018: 31

2019: 10

 

Looking back June and August have been the major torch months (May too). 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still raining. Up to 0.83" on the day.

[Timmy]

We got about 12 lbs. About perfect for having some ourselves and sharing with some friends and family.

 

Chanterelles go for $15.99 a pound at the store last time I checked, so you can do the math...

this summer has been the best since I have been picking the last 8 years or so. I think the lack of dry east winds really helped keep the moisture we did get around. I have been picking chanterelles since the beginning of July this year and the last two weeks have been the best I have ever seen them as far as quantity. I have picked close to 75 lbs already and the season hasn’t peaked yet.

[TT-SEA]

Thursday afternoon per the 12Z run just yesterday...

 

 

And now the 00Z run tonight...

 

[Jesse]

Looks like the 00Z is close to making the setup later this week a non-event. At least through hour 96. Just a small cool down with the ridge remaining very close to us.

[Jesse]

00z still gets us pretty chilly over the weekend, but given the fate of the Thursday/Friday system its hard telling what will happen ultimately.

 

Not hard to imagine this morphing into a fairly ridgy pattern as we move into October with some seasonably chilly nights at the offset. As some might say, we are due!

[Deweydog]

Not even going to discuss the surprise you sent me in return. #foreverscarred

Understandable. You either love or hate black licorice.

[Kayla]

00z still gets us pretty chilly over the weekend, but given the fate of the Thursday/Friday system its hard telling what will happen ultimately.

 

Not hard to imagine this morphing into a fairly ridgy pattern as we move into October with some seasonably chilly nights at the offset. As some might say, we are due!

Delayed not denied! Still a pretty big early season snowstorm out here as well.